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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #18881
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My football bets haven't looked too clever lately, not that there have been many, and Hearts appeared to take fright from the start on Sunday, parking the bus straight away. That was a tactic I wasn't really expecting given the bluster emanating from Tynecastle this season.

    I tipped Kilmarnock to beat Sevco a few weeks back in the league cup but they too didn't turn up on the occasion but they've got back into the kind of form that apparently would have them clear top of the league if only the matches since Steve Clarke took over counted.

    I still think Sevco are grossly over-rated but it seems the old club name remains enough to give them a psychological edge over most opponents and the hostile environment offers an easy excuse for Ibrox-facing referees to kow-tow to the crowd's baying for decisions whenever a player goes to ground. It has been very noticeable that since Gerrard took over, nearly every player goes to ground in a challenge (contact or not), looking for a decision. They only need to get 60% of these decisions to make a difference, a tactic he has been exploiting. They have had 7 pens this season (four in the last six minutes), Celtic - the most attacking team in the league - have had three.

    I believe Killie are the better side and Clarke the better manager but Sevco have home advantage and a ref likely to favour them.

    It hasn't stopped me backing Killie at 6/1 but deep down I think events will probably conspire to go the other way.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #18882
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Dramatic Queen (7.45K) finished close-up 3rd (off levels) in a good Newmarket listed race, where the first 2 have since won gp3s. They currently languish on 105 & 104 respectively while the selection gets in today off 94. That form is well ahead of anything achieved by today's opposition. and her last race is easily forgiven as she pulled too hard, up 2f in distance on heavy ground.
    James Doyle travels for the single ride, and she does look the business.
    Very well done. Great write up

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  4. #18883
    Senior Member fonz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Dramatic Queen (7.45K) finished close-up 3rd (off levels) in a good Newmarket listed race, where the first 2 have since won gp3s. They currently languish on 105 & 104 respectively while the selection gets in today off 94. That form is well ahead of anything achieved by today's opposition. and her last race is easily forgiven as she pulled too hard, up 2f in distance on heavy ground.
    James Doyle travels for the single ride, and she does look the business.
    Shout Reet, Followed you in pal

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  6. #18884
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good call, reet. I was tempted by your argument but I struggle to justify to myself betting on the AW.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  8. #18885
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    Thanks, guys.
    Pleasant change for me. to put a winner up.
    Last edited by reet hard; 31st October 2018 at 11:54 PM.

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  10. #18886
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    The big Melbourne Carnival gets under way in the early hours at Flemington

    Do like in the 4.50am race: ​Thinkin' Big

    If the colt Wins this Group 1 then will get into next weeks big race.

    So Win bet at 5-2 [Paddy Power]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  11. #18887
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    Hills place terms are first 5 in the 3:35 Ascot tomorrow, 10 runners
    Last edited by wilsonl; 2nd November 2018 at 7:16 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  12. #18888
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    Definitely Red. Admittedly the ground may be against him, but not a chance I can have Black Corton winning this. For me, had Bryony Frost not been riding this horse it would be nowhere near as high profile. It's run in the RSA showed that. Double Shuffle is a grinder at best and does not know how too get it's head in front, same as.God's Own. Virgillo is a handicapper.

    Admittedly I'm severely intoxicated (cheers slim and edgt) but I can't see past Definitely Red. I may wake up sober and think different.
    Last edited by Double J; 3rd November 2018 at 1:54 AM.

  13. #18889
    SlimChance
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    Definitly Red is an awful price. The one to be on is Virgillo at 9/2 or 4/1.

  14. #18890
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Wetherby should just cancel the whole card today. Had a decent bet on Keeper Hill only to encounter a rule 4 raping.

  15. #18891
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Wetherby should just cancel the whole card today. Had a decent bet on Keeper Hill only to encounter a rule 4 raping.
    Something needs to be done about it. Become a farce this last week.

  16. #18892
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Definitely Red. Admittedly the ground may be against him, but not a chance I can have Black Corton winning this. For me, had Bryony Frost not been riding this horse it would be nowhere near as high profile. It's run in the RSA showed that. Double Shuffle is a grinder at best and does not know how too get it's head in front, same as.God's Own. Virgillo is a handicapper.

    Admittedly I'm severely intoxicated (cheers slim and edgt) but I can't see past Definitely Red. I may wake up sober and think different.
    Yes I was pissed. Definitely Red be lucky to run in this race, fully expect him to be withdrawn. Read online the course hasn't been watered? Surely can't be true?

  17. #18893
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    [QUOTE=Double J;709668 not a chance I can have Black Corton winning this. [/QUOTE]

    Agree; BC is basically a boat, and a sharp 3m round a good ground Wetherby would be far from the test he needs.

    Have backed True Self 3.10NM, who's the price she is owing to the step back in trip, but she's shown any amount of speed lately, not least around Cork's easy 12f.
    Fully expect WM to produce another rabbit from his hat.
    Last edited by reet hard; 3rd November 2018 at 10:48 AM.

  18. #18894
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    ... not a chance I can have Black Corton winning this.
    ...

    I may wake up sober and think different.
    My take:

    WTH 2.40 BET365 CHARLIE HALL CHASE (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (5yo+) Winner £56,950 5 runners3m45y Good ITV4
    No. Form Horse Stats Days Age Weight Trainer Jockey OR TS MON Notes RPR
    5 22274- Double Shuffle h D 189 8 11-0 Tom George A P Heskin 162 151 172 ?? 184
    1 3116U- Definitly Red CD 205 9 11-6 Brian Ellison Danny Cook 164 136 167 p 177
    4 21154- Black Corton t D 204 7 11-3 Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost 153 135 162 p 171
    3 8PF-11 Virgilio t D 125 9 11-4 Dan Skelton Bridget Andrews 157 140 161 (164) 169
    nr 03P1P- Regal Encore D 189 10 11-4 Anthony Honeyball Richie McLernon 153 150 160 166

    My initial reaction on seeing the ORs was that Black Corton would struggle in this field but it’s maybe not as cut and dried as that. However, should he really be as short as 7/4f? Double Shuffle’s King George form seemingly stands out – if it can be taken at face value but it’s a big if. Definitly Red looked more obvious to me but he didn’t run well in this last year on his seasonal debut. Virgilio, one of my ante-post bets for last year’s National, looks to have a little bit too much to do. All of which brings me back to Black Corton. As a second-season chaser, he could improve 10lbs this time round. He’ll almost certainly jump from fence to fence and, like Frodon last week, should be fit enough so I’m going to go against my original instinct and put him forward as the likely winner but I won’t be getting involved unless I can get better than 2/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  20. #18895
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    The big Melbourne Carnival gets under way in the early hours at Flemington

    Do like in the 4.50am race: ​Thinkin' Big

    If the colt Wins this Group 1 then will get into next weeks big race.

    So Win bet at 5-2 [Paddy Power]
    Unplaced...not just our jockeys who give horses bad rides!
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  21. #18896
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    Thanks DO that was my take on the race too but based on instinct and not thorough form study. Double Shuffle seems to need to go right handed. Virgilio may not quite be good enough and it’s surely too fast for Definitely Red


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  22. #18897
    Senior Member an capall's Avatar
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    Trying to do reverse exactas and trifectas on BC on Irish Tote. Won't allow it. Will this sustain through the day?
    Last edited by an capall; 3rd November 2018 at 12:24 PM.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

  23. #18898
    SlimChance
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    Do we know Virgillo is not good enough to win a watered down season opening Graded race? 9/2 seems a good price to test the theory. I'd be laying shorter.

  24. #18899
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by an capall View Post
    Trying to do reverse exactas and trifectas on BC on Irish Tote. Won't allow it. Will this sustain through the day?
    Just use Bet365. The Tote is a mess.

  25. #18900
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    At the current double figure pice,can't let Roaring Lion go unbacked. Ran the race of his life, on the wrong ground & over the wrong trip, in the QE11, and, though dirt is a new experience for him, the surface rode fast last night, and his trainer knows more than enough about US racing not to have a strategy to deal with the kickback.

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