I heard this forum perks up when The Jumps begin? The Old Roan tomorrow. Flying Angel can do it for Nigel Twistion Davies in the.main event. He's good ground-Aintree novice chase form, goes well fresh, on a decent rating too.
I heard this forum perks up when The Jumps begin? The Old Roan tomorrow. Flying Angel can do it for Nigel Twistion Davies in the.main event. He's good ground-Aintree novice chase form, goes well fresh, on a decent rating too.
Last edited by Marb; 27th October 2018 at 9:14 PM.
Had a poor season last year although his run behind Top Notch at Ascot reads ok. 10b better off with Frodon as well.
I hate that horse
I’m also with Flying Angel at the weights. Think Frodon needs a stiffer test nowadays and Cloudy Dream doesn’t win often enough to justify his odds. Value at Risk clearly talented but a bit too in and out for me. The others need to find too much improvement to win this in my opinion
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Stepping back from my obvious loyalties, I'd say Hearts are a fair bet at 9/2 to beat Celtic in the League Cup semi-final this afternoon.
a) Murrayfield is pretty much a home tie for them.
b) Referee Willie Collum always discriminates against Celtic to over-compensate for the common knowledge that he is a devout practising Catholic (although that that's just for show is the rumour going around).
c) Hearts will almost certainly get a penalty.
d) Hearts players will be throwing themselves to the ground at every challenge on top of diving in the box at every opportunity.
Obviously I want to see the bhoys giving them a proper pumping - they rested some key players in Europe midweek ahead of this tie because the treble-treble is the priority this season - but I do think 9/2 Hearts is far too big. They should probably be no bigger than 5/2.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I've backed Frodon today. I think he's a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap.
Illegitimi non carborundum
fonz (28th October 2018)
What's happened to Frodon in the Grade 1s he's run in then? Imo he's a high class handicap chaser who appreciates a decent sized field and a good pace. I don't think sub 10 runner conditions races suit him
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Broke all records to get home for the 6.20pm at Wexford my time and someone only went and changed all the clocks in the UK without my permission
Formely Fist of Fury
Desert Orchid (28th October 2018)
Well done DO.
A poor run by Flying Angel who seemed to lose any chance when Javert dived at one in front of him. He hadn’t jumped with any real fluency prior to that anyway
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Desert Orchid (28th October 2018)
Yep. Frodon had much the better overall form, certianly compared to Flying Angel, heading into the race. I remembered from last season that I am sure he beat Shantou Flyer at some juncture too, which was good form. DO was spot on the select him, given he felt Frodon was a Grade 1 animal in a handicap. There was a slight question mark today, for me, as I couldn't be sure about his level of form/fitness after the wind operation. Flying Angel similarly needed to come right back to his best form but was unable to do so. I was marginally prepared to pitch against Frodon to chance Flying Angel, but there you go, everything always makes great sense after the race. I am not too disheartened though. I am looking forward to the rest of the jumps season, especially the big meetings coming up. I'd be keen to know when The Greatwood Hurdle entries are out. If The Cap Fits (anti-post davourite) and Solomon Grey (at a much bigger price) are the two I am interested to watch. They both have a couple of pieces of form together in novice hurdles .The former would appear to have Solomon Grey's measure on those performances, but I know from reading the Skelton's quotes from last season that they reckon Solomon will be a lot better horse this season. Solomon would carry a lot less weight than If The Cap Fits too. I think they will both be interesting in three weeks time.
Last edited by Marb; 28th October 2018 at 6:01 PM.
I've been out since before lunchtime so wasn't aware of Euro's reply and I've only just watched the replay so apologies if this comes across as aftertiming.
I have a Grade 1 rating for Frodon for his 17-length win at Cheltenham in January and backed him in each of his subsequent runs because of that rating.
His next appearance was in 'that' Ascot race won by Waiting Patiently in which the sectionals were colossal yet he wasn't at all disgraced. But I also wondered if Cheltenham had left its mark.
Going into the Ryanair, for which I actually had Frodon top-rated, I wrote:
He was never going in the race and I concluded that his two previous races had indeed got to him.I’m going to take a chance with Frodon here. He shouldn’t really beat Cue Card but the latter ended up having the harder race at Ascot. Waiting Patiently misses this because he hasn’t got over that race. Cue Card is maybe a bit more robust but I’m not prepared to take the risk. Un De Sceaux doesn’t look a good favourite on any of the ratings.
I still backed him next time back at Cheltenham but again he disappointed.
Today I was hoping that his summer break would bring him back refreshed and given that he's still only six I reckoned Nicholls would probably be working towards a Grade 1 win in due course but this would be a nice place to start.
I'm just happy to have got back to winning form...
Illegitimi non carborundum
Euronymous (28th October 2018), fonz (28th October 2018), Marb (28th October 2018), Outsider (28th October 2018)
To all intents and purposes the Flat season is over for me but I have two tracker alerts for today.
The first is for Not So Sleepy (1.55 Lei) but at 9/4 in a strongish field I can let it win unbacked.
The second is Gossiping in the 3.05, also at Leicester, and I've taken it ew at 17/2. The bet wasn't restricted as it usually is so I assume the bookie in question knows it won't win. Such is punting.
Anyway, it's a tracker because I had noted that it was unlucky behind Medahim at the Goodwood festival, doing best of the hold-up horses and being denied a clear run. I'm happy to ignore his subsequent defeat as he isn't as good on the AW. He's also maybe a bit of a fruitcake but capable on a going day. It's a strong-looking field with the likes of Firmament very dangerously handicapped but fortune favours and all that.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Nottingham 2:40 - I reckon I've found an excellent bet tomorrow win and/or each way. The market is headed by three last-time-out winners. They have their respective chances. However. I'm sweet on the mare that Eric Alston trains called Lydiate Lady. Her win strike rate is 8/48, a strike rate of just under twenty percent. She has definately earned her keep. Lydiate Lady wasn't great at two years of age by any means, but the past several seasons she's improved as a sprinter. Significantly she has often won when dropping in the ratings, thus the pattern can be continued tomorrow. The favourites obviously have their chance but I am pitching against them, with Lydiate Lady, who after a better run in fifth place last time, can win this. She's currently 16/1 which underestimates her chance. I may be able to get some 20's later on hopefully. Fingers crossed.
Last edited by Marb; 30th October 2018 at 6:09 PM.
Dramatic Queen (7.45K) finished close-up 3rd (off levels) in a good Newmarket listed race, where the first 2 have since won gp3s. They currently languish on 105 & 104 respectively while the selection gets in today off 94. That form is well ahead of anything achieved by today's opposition. and her last race is easily forgiven as she pulled too hard, up 2f in distance on heavy ground.
James Doyle travels for the single ride, and she does look the business.
2017diary (31st October 2018)
Dundalk 4.55
Stormy Tale
I'm not big on betting at Dundalk in handicaps but not hard to see this going off a single figure price.
Good luck with those Slim and Reet. I will stick my selection and yours in a patent today. Three different brains are better than one. The money is coming for my selection Lydiate Lady, (which doesn't surprise me). This is good to see. Generally 11/1 now, from 16's last night.
Last edited by Marb; 31st October 2018 at 10:51 AM.