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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #16781
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    1.50 Wincanton-Homers Odyssey @ 7-2 [Skybet]
    2.00 Carlisle-Almost Gemini @ 5-2 [Boylesports]
    2.10 Southwell-Padleyourowncanoe @ 7-1 [Skybet]
    2.30 Carlisle-Dick Darsie @ 5-2 [Paddy Power]
    2.55 Wincanton-Flaming Charmer @ 11-4 [Skybet]
    4.30 Southwell-Whosyourhousemate @ 13-8 [Bet Bright]
    5.35 Southwell-Storm King @ 9-2 [Paddy Power]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  2. #16782
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    1.50 - Wincanton - Quarry Wizard. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 22/1.
    Not much solid form in evidence in this low grade Handicap Hurdle. Cheltenham De Vaige, Homers Odyssey, Flow With Eve and Eddy all come into the race on the back of promising efforts but, in such a race, it may be worth chancing a horse at decent odds who has shown some promise, even if it has been sporadic. Step forward Quarry Wizard who has disappointed in the majority of his races but who could get competitive if he reproduces his best. That best came over today's sort of trip at Lingfield in heavy ground at January and he runs from three pounds lower today. He was beaten 30 lengths into fifth of the eight runners next time out at Towcester, again in heavy ground, but that came over three miles and he ran well to a point. Connections dropped him back to the extended 19 furlongs at Wetherby last time out but he disappointed in G/S ground and he will need to leave that form behind if he is to figure here. That's possible in an easier race and he looks worth risking at a big price

    2.35 - Carlisle - Ryalex. 2 pts win. Available at 5/1.
    Under rules, none of these have won over fences and only one of them has been successful over hurdles. Preference is for Ryalex who showed promise in two Maiden Hurdle races last season and, after reappearing in a Novice race at Musselburgh in November, he ran well on his first start over fences over two miles here last month. That came in handicap company from a one pound higher mark and, although beaten fourteen lengths, he gave every indication that a stiffer test would see him in a better light. He gets that here and the form of that race has been franked by the second and fifth since. The yard are in good form and send just the one from their Perth base (224 mile round trip).

    2.55 - Wincanton - Regal Flow. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.

    4.40 - Wincanton - You Too Pet. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.
    Last edited by Ricko; 9th March 2017 at 2:33 PM.

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  4. #16783
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    1.50 Wincanton-Homers Odyssey @ 7-2 [Skybet]
    2.00 Carlisle-Almost Gemini @ 5-2 [Boylesports]
    2.10 Southwell-Padleyourowncanoe @ 7-1 [Skybet]
    2.30 Carlisle-Dick Darsie @ 5-2 [Paddy Power]
    2.55 Wincanton-Flaming Charmer @ 11-4 [Skybet]
    4.30 Southwell-Whosyourhousemate @ 13-8 [Bet Bright] non runner
    5.35 Southwell-Storm King @ 9-2 [Paddy Power]
    Profit of 7.5pts
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  5. #16784
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    3.05 Sandown-Ardkilly Witness @ 5-1 [Paddy Power]
    3.40 Sandown-Kayf Adventure @ 11-8 [Paddy Power]
    4.15 Sandown-Vicangelome @ 9-1 [Bet Victor]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  6. #16785
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    Couple of nice winners there PB. Ricko - unlucky with Regal Flow, looked the likely winner.

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  8. #16786
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    A lot of my bets are in Novice Hurdle races throughout the winter months, today i have Notnow Seamus as having a very good chance of overturning the odds on favourite in 14.45 race.
    Last edited by J Mangold; 10th March 2017 at 1:58 PM. Reason: Corrected the time of the race

  9. #16787
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    Very much one of those days yesterday. Regal Flow was two lengths up and travelling well when he fell three out at Carlisle; he looked the likely winner. At Wincanton, Ryalex fell at the first and You Too Pet finished third later on the same card. At the same track Quarry Wizard was disappointing.

    Today's Selections:

    3.40 - Sandown:
    Billy Bronco. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.
    Ossies Dancer. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 28/1.
    Hot favourite, Kayf Adventure, had showed plenty of promise behind Neon Wolf on his hurdling debut at Exeter in January and put that experience to good use when winning as he liked at Fontwell last month. The third won a Maiden at Lingfield on Monday and Kayf Adventure may have got in here very lightly on a mark of 123. He is related to plenty of winners and it wouldn't be a surprise were to he to make hay in handicap company for a while to come. However this is a competitive field and several of the runners are open to further progress. One of those is Billy Bronco who has had a short break after running as if something was amiss over three miles at Ayr last time out. He won that race by six lengths but he was fortunate with the runaway leader still going well when coming down three out. He is better judged on his close second in a Novice race over 22 furlongs at Ffos Las in December. The winner, Ballymalin, won another Novice next time out and then finished third in a Pertemps Network Qualifier at Exeter on his handicap debut from a mark of 138. That was a hot race which normally has a bearing on the Cheltenham handicaps. Ballymalin was rated 133 when he beat Billy Bronco almost a length giving him four pounds so an initial mark for the selection here of 123 looks far from harsh if he can repeat that form. He has proved in all four of his races to date that he can handle testing ground and he is a full brother to the handicapper of the season, Tobefair, so his attitude is likely to be spot on. His is bred for further so the stiff nature of this track should suit. The yard send three horses to the races today but just the one to this track (two to Leicester) so the presence of Adam Wedge, the stables preferred jockey in the absence of the injured Paul Moloney, is a positive. At a much bigger price Ossies Dancer wouldn't be out of this on his best form. His last victory came off a nine pound higher mark than he runs from here but that was back in May 2015 and things haven't gone so well since. Two disappointments were followed by an eighteen month absence from the track. He was entitled to need his reappearance in January, when he was pulled up at Wincanton, and, although well beaten on his second start at Huntingdon last month, there was a bit of encouragement in a better race than this one. He may be able to build further on that today and, if he does, he is weighted to get competitive. He has to prove his effectiveness on a right-handed track but the yard have a very profitable 21% strike rate with their horses in handicaps over hurdles in recent seasons.

    6.45 - Newcastle - Zamjar. 1.5 pts win. Available at 7/1.
    As you would expect in a three year old handicap, there are plenty of horses who are capable of major progression. Royal Opera House ran away with a seven furlong Maiden Auction race at Chelmsford on just his second start and the way he travelled through the race suggests this step back in trip won't inconvenience him. He could be anything but an initial mark of 87 is no 'gimme' and he has to give weight to the rest of the field. Hemmingway showed promise on all three starts as a Juvenile and he's likely to be seen in a better light as a three year old. His initial mark is probably not beyond him if he is ready for this. Wick Powell has run to a similar level in all seven of his races to date and, this winner of the Listed Totepool Two year Old Trophy at Redcar last season, is not readily dismissed. Slight preference though is for Zamjar. He showed some decent form in Novice/Maiden races on turf and has progressed since he switched to handicaps on the artificial surfaces. He ran out a cosy winner over this C/D in December and, although beaten in a voided race at Wolverhampton last time out, he was forced wide round the bend and the effort can be forgiven. He is four pounds higher than he was when he won but that doesn't look beyond him. The yard are in good form and Josephine Gordon, who has been on board for his last two starts, is back in the plate again.

    7.45 - Newcastle - Sea Of Green. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
    Last edited by Ricko; 10th March 2017 at 2:02 PM.

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  11. #16788
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    3.05 Sandown-Ardkilly Witness @ 5-1 [Paddy Power]
    3.40 Sandown-Kayf Adventure @ 11-8 [Paddy Power]
    4.15 Sandown-Vicangelome @ 9-1 [Bet Victor]
    Loss of 3pts
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  12. #16789
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    Well done Ricko with a 14-1 winner
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  13. #16790
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    Ran too free, becoming expensive to follow [7-4 favourite tonight]. Suspect he will be dropped in trip next time
    ...and he is to 1m 5f tomorrow at Wolverhampton [5pm] Silver Quay

    Thought the opening 5-1 was big and taken those odds [currently 9-2], as the favourite Ardamir is a bit of a rogue
    Last edited by PlaceBacker; 10th March 2017 at 9:54 PM.
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  14. #16791
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    Well done Ricko with a 14-1 winner
    Cheers mate.

  15. #16792
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricko View Post
    Cheers mate.
    I missed it but top tipping Ricko. They would have been wetting their pants if you had posted it in the will win thread!

    Willie has an interesting runner in the bumper at Gorwan today. Castlebrook 2.1/1 fav but expect it to start odds on.
    Gets allowances and hacked up in it's only p2p.

  16. #16793
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    My bets [1pt win on each]

    1.40 Hereford-Financial Climate @ 11-2 [Paddy Power]
    2.25 Sandown-Shanroe Santos @ 3-1 [Boylesports]
    2.40 Wolverhampton-Gilgamesh @ 13-8 [Betfred]
    3.20 Ayr-Courtown Oscar @ 5-2 [Paddy Power]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  17. #16794
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Gaitway (Sandown 13:50) looks potentially chucked-in off a mark of 128 today.

    He beat Tea For Two readily in his sole Bumper outing (TFT eventually rated h140), and had over two years off the track following defeat to Aruba D'Irelande; returning in a hot little novice hurdle at Cheltenham won by Pingshou. Gaitway went well for a long way that day, until match-fitness told, and wasn't unfancied either, being sent off 11/4 2nd-Fave of twelve. He then went to Musselburgh, to win a tin-pot maiden at 1/2F early last month, running on again to lead close home, after being headed.

    A strict interpretation of that win, would suggest a mark of 128 is probably about right. But his level of form in Bumpers, the promise he has shown in his two runs since returning, and the market-support in both races, suggest to me that the yard expect him to show a good deal more still.......and de Boinville has selected this one over the yard's top-weight.

    B365, BetVictor and Hills are all taking a chance, pricing him up at 10/1. He is max bet material for me.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th March 2017 at 11:34 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  19. #16795
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    Ive backed Gaitway today for similar reasons. I've also backed Zalvados. I'm a bit disappointed that he's not going for the Fred Winter. His second to Don Bersy reads very well and I reckon he would have sneaked in on Thursday off a feather weight. I guess they weren't prepared to risk it and they're taking their chance here instead.
    Last edited by Maruco; 11th March 2017 at 10:24 AM.

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  21. #16796
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Gaitway (Sandown 13:50) looks potentially chucked-in off a mark of 128 today.

    He beat Tea For Two readily in his sole Bumper outing (TFT eventually rated h140), and had over two years off the track following defeat to Aruba D'Irelande; returning in a hot little novice hurdle at Cheltenham won by Pingshou. Gaitway went well for a long way that day, until match-fitness told, and wasn't unfancied either, being sent off 11/4 2nd-Fave of twelve. He then went to Musselburgh, to win a tin-pot maiden at 1/2F early last month, running on again to lead close home, after being headed.

    A strict interpretation of that win, would suggest a mark of 128 is probably about right. But his level of form in Bumpers, the promise he has shown in his two runs since returning, and the market-support in both races, suggest to me that the yard expect him to show a good deal more still.......and de Boinville has selected this one over the yard's top-weight.

    B365, BetVictor and Hills are all taking a chance, pricing him up at 10/1. He is max bet material for me.
    That tin-pot maiden Gaitway won at Musselburgh
    Crackdeloust 4th btn 12 1/2L and finished 3rd & 2nd next two races - RPR 122
    Monfass 5th btn 24L - won n/t/o 12/1 - RPR 110 O/R 112
    Dear Sire 6th btn 25L - won n/t/o 4/1 - RPR 118 O/R 117
    Slanelough 7th btn 25L - 2nd n/t/o 40/1 - RPR 100
    Multipede 8th btn 45L - 4th n/t/o 200/1 - RPR 82
    Bat Sheva - 9h & last btn nearly 100L was 5th n/t/o 150/1 - RPR 100

    The 2nd Touch Kick races against Gaitway again today I've backed both e/way & r/f/c although different distances & going both are expected to be suited by a stiffer test of stamina and may both be well handicapped?

    The 3rd Cesar Et Rosalie - no entry yet but is in my tracker.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  22. #16797
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    I have Lithic with about 14lb in hand in that 1.50 race, a mark of 117 is very lenient. He won very easily last time and I will be disappointed if he doesn't take this race.

  23. #16798
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    Double posted
    Last edited by J Mangold; 11th March 2017 at 1:44 PM.

  24. #16799
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    With no confidence or recommendation:-

    Sandown 1:50 Gaitway
    2:25 Fourth Act
    3:00 Gassin Golf

  25. #16800
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    Billy Bronco just missed out on the places when finishing fourth at Sandown yesterday. Zamjar found two too good at Newcastle but the day ended in profit when cheekpieces enabled Sea Of Green (Newcastle) to get his head in front for the first time on his 26th start.

    Today's Selections:

    1.50 - Sandown:
    Full Irish. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
    Ramses De Teillee. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 22/1.
    The second handicap on Sandown's card is a very competitive affair with only nine pounds separating twelve of the sixteen runners. Lithic has been well touted and well supported in the early markets and his chances are respected but preference is for the initial favourite for the race, Full Irish, and, at a bigger price, Ramses De Teillee. Full Irish showed ability in a couple of Bumpers and has improved with each start over hurdles in Maiden/Novice company. He came up against the useful Doesyourdogbite and The Worlds End on his first two starts at Hereford and Chepstow and put that experience to good use when running out a comfortable winner at Leicester last time out. The form of that race may be unreliable with the two that headed the market disappointing in bad ground but he could do nothing but win and the second had a rating of 121 going into the race. That has seen Full Irish being handed a mark of 130 for this handicap debut and that will require further improvement if he is to figure. That's entirely possible, even if the drying conditions are not in his favour. At a bigger price Ramses De Teillee takes the eye, even if his drift in the early markets has been somewhat alarming. An Irish Point winner, he has yet to get his head in front over hurdles but he has improved from race to race in three starts, all over an extended two miles on good/good to soft ground. He makes his handicap debut here from a mark of 119 and that doesn't look harsh on the balance of his form so far. The fact connections step him immediately up in trip after gaining his rating suggests that improvement for the new distance is on the cards and that could give him at least a few pounds in hand of the Assessor. His Point win was gained on slower ground so underfoot conditions shouldn't pose a problem.

    2.15 - Hereford - Lord Bryan. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2.
    Some of these may find improvement for the step up to this near 26 furlongs and one of them could be Lord Bryan. He showed some ability in four Bumpers but since reappearing in December he has been well beaten in three starts over hurdles. He may have found the race coming too soon last time out at Lingfield but there was some encouragement in his first two starts. The first came on the back of a six month break and he was noted making some moderate late progress over an extended 23 furlongs at Exeter. The second came over an extended 19 furlongs at Chepstow where he improved to get within twelve lengths of the winner of a race which has worked out well. Given a break since his last run he may appreciate being handed his stiffest test to date on his handicap debut. He has been allocated a mark of 112, which doesn't look beyond him, and the ground will hold no fears.

    2.50 - Hereford - Duncomplaining. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.

    3.00 - Sandown:
    Chieftain's Choice. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.
    Disputing. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.

    4.45 - Sandown - Dance Floor King. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.
    Last edited by Ricko; 11th March 2017 at 1:52 PM.

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