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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #16221
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    Yesterday finished in decent profit when Cold March won at Musselburgh and Doctor Harperwent down by a head at Cheltenham. Whataknight was a non runner.

    Today's Selections:

    2.50 - Plumpton:
    Mysteree. 2.5 pts win. Available at 9/2.
    Onderun. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
    The Sussex National and, with underfoot conditions as they are, this will be a dour test of stamina. There are plenty of established handicappers on show but it's the lightly raced Chasers that make most appeal. These include Cailleach Annie, Sartorial Elegance, Mysteree and Onderun and it's the last two named that make most appeal. They head the market but on recent efforts deserve to do so. Mysteree has won three of his six starts over fences and has already proved to be much better over fences than he was over hurdles. He returned from a long absence to win on his Chasing debut last season and produced a career best when winning on his reappearance last time out at Haydock. That victory came on heavy ground over today's sort of trip and was achieved by a quite comfortable three and half lengths. His 44 day absence since should be viewed as a positive and four of his five victories have come in soft/heavy ground. A nine pound rise in the weights demands more of him but he is relatively lightly raced for a nine year old and extreme tests of stamina look to be his forte. The retention of Richard Johnson, who rode him for the first time last time out, is a bonus. The yard are in form (three winners and two second placed from their last ten runners) and they have a very profitable 19% strike rate with their handicappers over fences in recent seasons. Onderun makes just his fifth start over fences and tenth start overall. He has had his problems according to his Trainer but he looked to have put them behind him when getting his head in front for the first time at Lingfield on his reappearance last month. That victory came in decisive fashion over an extended 23 furlongs and the further he went the better he looked. He had finished second in the same race last season from today's mark in heavy ground and he could be ready to make up for lost time. Two attempts at beyond three miles have seen him under-perform but he is bred for the job and he represents a yard who have some well handicapped inmates after a relatively disappointing campaign last season.

    3.50 - Plumpton - Catchin Time. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 20/1.
    An open looking handicap over hurdles concludes Plumpton's card and it could be worth taking a chance on Catchin Time at a big price. In recent seasons he has taken two or three races to find his peak form and he makes his third start of this campaign today. All four of his wins have come between December and February, three of them came in heavy ground and one over this C/D. He is six pounds above his highest winning mark but that victory was gained in decisive fashion at Uttoxter this time last year. He gets on well with today's three pound claimer and his return to the saddle is a positive. A return to deeper ground after two outings on G/S this season will suit and, although yet to win in this grade, he has got competitive and this race is not very deep.
    Last edited by Ricko; 2nd January 2017 at 1:58 PM.

  2. #16222
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    What are you backing Today?

    I've gone for Tothemoonandback in the Sussex Nash at 8/1. This fella races off what may be a lenient mark and Gary Moore has done well in this race before. Could be vulnerable to an improver though

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    Last edited by viking; 2nd January 2017 at 2:50 PM.

  3. #16223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Not much has changed my mind that the horse who beat Rocklander, Trans Express, must be bloody well handicapped on 111 at present. Because Lord Of The Island was franking the form nicely before falling today at Exeter, in the race Space Oddity went on to win, and Rocklander went close.
    Goodness gracious me, Trans Express entered up at Wincanton on Saturday in the 3:15, covered by ITV 4.
    Last edited by Marb; 2nd January 2017 at 3:22 PM.

  4. #16224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    It is indeed just watch those bookies don't shut you down mate......... they hate punters like you
    70% of betting is on Betfair, other 30% with restrictions

    A lot of fixed odds bookmakers should be done under the trade description act..
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  5. #16225
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    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    1.15 Bangor-Pithivier @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
    1.30 Musselburgh-Golden Investment @ 7-2 [Skybet]
    1.45 Bangor-Buttercup @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
    3.00 Musselburgh-Thankyou Very Much @ 11-4 [Boylesports]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  6. #16226
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    1.45 - Bangor - Buttercup. 2.5 pts win. Available at 7/2.
    Several of these have been in good form recently and, of those, Buttercup is preferred. She had some fair form over hurdles and kicked off her British campaign with a useful third in a Novice race at Warwick in January. She was one length behind a horse who was rated 127 (now 139) and had a subsequent dual winner (now rated 121) a further eight lengths behind. It was therefore disappointing that she never achieved anything like that level of form in four races after. It would've taken a leap of faith to support her after those efforts but switched to fences on her reappearance last month she ran well until tiring late on, looking in need of the outing. She will need to build on that performance and, although she failed to do so last season, it may be worth giving her the benefit of the doubt from a mark of 110, fifteen pounds below her original hurdle's rating. Trip and ground will suit and she represents a yard who have had four winners from their last eight entries. Their Chasers have a very profitable 24% strike rate here in recent seasons


    2.00 - Musselburgh - Final Countdown. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
    It's difficult to know how much flat ability Final Countdown still has but he ran well to finish a three length second from a mark of 82 as recently as fifteen months ago. Two efforts this year have proved nowhere near as good but they came after significant breaks so there may be excuses. He eventually ended up well beaten returned to hurdles at Kelso last month but he ran well to a point. He will need to better that if he is to get involved here but he did have better form over obstacles a few seasons back and, if he can repeat anything like that level of form, he would be well handicapped in this sphere on a mark of 99. This is just his third run for an in-form yard who are enjoying by far their best season to date. Both they and the jockey turn up for just the one entry.


    4.40 - Newcastle - Dutch Art Dealer. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.

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  8. #16227
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    nice winner Ricko
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  9. #16228
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

    1.15 Bangor-Pithivier @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
    1.30 Musselburgh-Golden Investment @ 7-2 [Skybet]
    1.45 Bangor-Buttercup @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
    3.00 Musselburgh-Thankyou Very Much @ 11-4 [Boylesports]
    Loss of 4pts...three 2nds
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  10. #16229
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    My bets [1pt win on each]

    1.25 Hereford-Canoodle @ 11-4 [Bet Bright]
    1.35 Newcastle-Oxford Thinking @ 7-2 [Race Bets]
    2.15 Lingfield-Dutch Uncle @ 5-4 [Bet 365]
    3.05 Newcastle-Chevallier @ 3-1 [Boylesports]
    3.35 Newcastle-Dancin Alpha @ 8-1 [Bet Bright]
    3.55 Hereford-Keel Haul @ 9-1 [Betfred]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  11. #16230
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    Yesterday finished in profit when Dutch Art Dealer won at Newcastle. Buttercup was closing on the front two when coming down two out at Bangor and Final Countdown ran creditably to finish third at Musselburgh, despite looking a bit reluctant to go through with his effort.


    Apologies for the lack of analysis today.


    Today's Selections:


    12.55 - Hereford - Rainbow Haze. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.


    3.35 - Newcastle - Cool Strutter. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.


    3.55 - Hereford:
    Peruvien Bleu. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
    Bobble Emerald. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.


    4.05 - Newcastle - Fredericka. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.

  12. #16231
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    My bets [1pt win on each]

    1.25 Hereford-Canoodle @ 11-4 [Bet Bright]
    1.35 Newcastle-Oxford Thinking @ 7-2 [Race Bets]
    2.15 Lingfield-Dutch Uncle @ 5-4 [Bet 365]
    3.05 Newcastle-Chevallier @ 3-1 [Boylesports]
    3.35 Newcastle-Dancin Alpha @ 8-1 [Bet Bright]
    3.55 Hereford-Keel Haul @ 9-1 [Betfred]
    Loss of 6pts
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  13. #16232
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    My bets [1pt win on each]

    1.05 Southwell-Playful Dude @ 6-4 [Race Bets]
    1.20 Lingfield-Robinroyale @ 6-1 [Bet Bright]
    2.00 Wolverhampton-Spiritoftomintoul @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
    2.10 Southwell-Ralphy Lad @ 7-1 [Racebets]
    2.20 Lingfield-Cool Sky @ 2-1 [Stan James]
    2.30 Wolverhampton-Moonshine Dancer @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
    2.50 Lingfield-Label Des Obeaux @ 2-1 [Bet 365]
    4.00 Wolverhampton-Party Tiger @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  14. #16233
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    Lingfield off so no jumps racing today


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  15. #16234
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    2.00 - Wolverhampton - Spiritoftomintoul. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.
    Off the track for six months, Spiritoftomintoul returned at Southwell last month and was beaten a long way when finishing last of seven. That was disappointing but it could've been badly needed and he looks worth chancing back at this venue. He has run well on four of his five previous visits (reasonably well in the other) and was a winner from a two pound higher mark over C/D last February. He followed that by going close over an extended two miles here from eight pounds higher than he runs from today. The lack of obvious pace in the race is a concern for a horse who stays further but he is drawn well to gain a prominent early pitch if the gallop is not overly generous. Two wins from 27 starts isn't a strike rate to write home about but the last win did come under today's useful three pound claimer.

    4.30 - Wolverhampton - Zac Brown. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 17/2.
    Zac Brown has been running better than his final finishing positions suggest lately and this represents a significant drop in class. He finished in midfield last time out over six furlongs here but he was only beaten just under three lengths in a much better race than this. He was beaten three and half lengths over this C/D, again in a better race, from a nine pound higher mark in November and that added to a resume that contains numerous good performances here from higher marks against much better opposition. He is tactically versatile but, more often than not, he leads/races prominently and he is well drawn in stall one to adopt that scenario. Three of his four victories have come from higher marks than he runs from today and it will be disappointing if he doesn't get competitive at least.

    5.00 - Wolverhampton - Harmonic wave. 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1.

    8.15 - Chelmsford - Hakam. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2.
    Last edited by Ricko; 5th January 2017 at 12:39 PM.

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  17. #16235
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    Nice winner with Zac Brown there Ricko

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    Ricko (5th January 2017)

  19. #16236
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    Thanks Benny. I'm hugely surprised at the SP, I have to say. 12/1.

  20. #16237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Goodness gracious me, Trans Express entered up at Wincanton on Saturday in the 3:15, covered by ITV 4.
    Hopefully will get the nod to run tomorrow. He's due to carry 10:7, might go up a few pounds by declarations, but its still a similar weight to that carried the last twice. Rocklander franked the form, (now on 131), Space Oddity did at Exeter too, 9L eventual winner... (I don't think he's been been adjusted). Lord Of The Island franked the form with Space Oddity even though he fell. So I cannot for the life of me see how the handicapper has caught up with Trans Express. Its crystal clear to me if my logic of weights and handicapping are worth any salt (which I'm increasingly doubting as I get older)! But I don't know what will be declared tomorrow yet, so we'll see.
    Last edited by Marb; 5th January 2017 at 8:47 PM.

  21. #16238
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    And another with Hakam - nice

  22. #16239
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    My bets [1pt win on each]

    1.05 Southwell-Playful Dude @ 6-4 [Race Bets]
    1.20 Lingfield-Robinroyale @ 6-1 [Bet Bright] ab
    2.00 Wolverhampton-Spiritoftomintoul @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
    2.10 Southwell-Ralphy Lad @ 7-1 [ Race Bets) non runner
    2.20 Lingfield-Cool Sky @ 2-1 [Stan James] ab
    2.30 Wolverhampton-Moonshine Dancer @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
    2.50 Lingfield-Label Des Obeaux @ 2-1 [Bet 365] ab
    4.00 Wolverhampton-Party Tiger @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
    Profit of 1.38pts
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  23. #16240
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    My bets [1pt win on each]

    12.35 Wetherby-Dusty Raven @ 7-2 [Betfred]
    12.50 Ludlow-Ckalco Des Loges @ 11-8 [Betfred]
    1.05 Wetherby-Two Swallows @ 7-2 [Betfair Sports]
    1.50 Ludlow-Midnight Cowboy @ 13-2 [Bet Bright]
    2.20 Ludlow-Gardiners Hill @ 6-1 [Ladbrokes]
    5.00 Kempton-Eljaddaaf @ 9-2 [Boylesports]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

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