Put a line through Alberto's Dream (Chepstow 3:30) last run...too bad to be true and did well at Huntingdon the time before, bottom weight today and 12's will do nicely. My kinda price.
Put a line through Alberto's Dream (Chepstow 3:30) last run...too bad to be true and did well at Huntingdon the time before, bottom weight today and 12's will do nicely. My kinda price.
Last edited by marbler; 30th January 2015 at 1:46 PM.
good call Tanlic..won comfy
3.10 even with extra poundage Steady Major is well in here..looks like an 85 horse on my calcs..so has a few in hand of these who look to be handicapped to suit their abilities
a lumpy bet for me at 3.1 earlier will hopefully top up the account after yesterdays non effort
Nice one, Tanlic.
Thanks guys
Formely Fist of Fury
There goes today profit...he should have stayed in bloody retirement EC
Formely Fist of Fury
another one that will win for sure..when it actually gets into a race rather than 2f burn out giving the winner a few lengths start..the warnings signs were there..small field..spencer on..when will i learn?
Last edited by EC1; 30th January 2015 at 4:21 PM.
Spencer has cost me a fortune over the years. Awful one-dimensional jockey.
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i backed le rouquin last time out based on its prior run..its a 65 horse on my calcs....6lb in hand today..spencer on..evens
i'll pass at the price..should win but is very short...and if anyone can get it beat.....
if you look at that race..he needed only to be about a length or two further forward on the turn in..and he's won..but no he has to be last to first to look good...the horse needed the 10f last time..and has nearly overcome a real negative to finish so close..he knew it weren't a speed horse..but still rode it like one when he knew they had gone steady early..just move it into second at least on the far side...oh no I have to stay last..its what i do..muppet
Last edited by EC1; 30th January 2015 at 4:33 PM.
Eastern Witness is still a frustrating horse....I honestly think they are scratching there heads to find a distance for it........ there at a couple of furlongs out,... then gave up and that was half a mile shorter than LTO..... I'LL GIVE UP ON IT AFTER THAT DISPLAY
Last edited by ragusa; 30th January 2015 at 5:03 PM.
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Last edited by marbler; 30th January 2015 at 8:31 PM.
Usually poor at laying favs but this Bisham Bedi looks very short to me about 13/8 with a 14lb rise to overcome, won a very poor race lto very easily but as i've put on the bf forum his full siblings couldn't win above a mark off 70.
Will have a little EW on Doc Holliday who usually goes well around here and 10lb apprentice allowance puts him on a nice mark.
Think i got lucky there Bisham Bedi very unlucky, not sure what happened to the Doc!
Willie Mullins has a very-warm favourite in the shape of Morning Run in the Solerina Hurdle at Fairyhouse today, but I will be opposing with Baie Des Iles.
BDI gets all possible allowances in today's race, and runs from an effective mark of 119 - and this could under-estimate her chance significantly. She has to-date plied her trade solely in France, and whilst she has mixed Bumpers, Hurdles and Fences in her brief 8-race career, she was won four of those outings - scoring in each discipline - and has shown a sufficiently good level of form in the hurdles runs, to command a degree more respect here than the early betting would imply.
BDI's best piece of form from her four hurdles starts, would be her last run in that sphere in September, where she had Bathilde well beaten back in fourth. On a line (an admittedly meandering one) through Bathilde, BDI could reasonably be rated perhaps some 20-25lbs below Bonito Du Berlais, France's top juvenile hurdler.
Bonito Du Berlais was hugely impressive in winning the Prix Cambeceres by 12L, and is so highly regarded that connections have not only refused to sell (for astronomical money), but they have basically dared the owners of whoever wins the Triumph, to take them on at Auteuil in the Alan Du Breil this summer. Bonito Du Berlais is almost certainly just as good as Peace And Co, who is currently rated in the mid-150's, but even a conservative estimate of 150 for BDB would suggest Baie Des Isles is still notionally well-in from her relative mark of 119.
Another thing to consider is that BDI has been chasing since that hurdles victory in September, where she has generally acquited herself with credit; winning on her second start, before placing in a £75K Grade 2 in her last outing in November. That is form which further suggests a relative rating of 119 under-estimates her, and entries in the Triumph , Neptune and the Mares at the Festival, perhaps give further indication that connections think she might be fairly useful.
Today's race is competitive enough - it's a very tidy event for a Mares Novice actually - and the tie-in with Bonito Du Berlais is more Spirograph than straight-line.....but I think she is a very interesting contender for - what is for me, at any rate - a yard which is a complete mystery. I have availed myself of the 12/1 with Powers this morning (and buttons at 16 and 14.5 on Betfair) but I'm hopeful that bigger prices might be available later (when more books price-up the race), as she may be overlooked because of who trains her.
It may be a touch Quixotic, but I've also had some on at 170/34 (Win/Place) for the Triumph, 210 for the Neptune, and 155 for the Mares.
Having raced around the minumum trip at Auteuil, todays journey of 2m2f on Soft/Heavy should be right up her alley, and I'm hopeful of a big run.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 31st January 2015 at 7:39 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Desperate Dan (31st January 2015)
Good luck, Grass.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Grasshopper (31st January 2015)
Bet Victor have opened 14/1 about Baie Des Iles.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Chandler now 16/1.
I may need a smaller shovel.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Good morning all........Ffos Las for my bets today FORYOURINFORMATION was down to go to Sandown but is here instead where he just about scrambled home last time, relatively unexposed with a light weight might just see him home again today, in the 2.40 I have to go again with GLOBAL POWER who let me down badly at Fontwell LTO lightly raced, has stamina aplenty and hopefully regain some of my cash back.
Wetherby 2.45 HERONSHAW It took my eye at Chepstow LTO and could show improvement today
good luck to you all
Last edited by ragusa; 31st January 2015 at 10:48 AM.