decided to leave 'em alone today but I been suckered into backing Doldrums in the 4.40 at 3.05.
Trainer really should know what is required to beat Modernism, but the the dam of my pick has produced plenty of quality animals and she won her maiden at a time when the stable are struggling for winners.
I've backed that as well, good luck!
Not great.
Tempted by the Varian runner in the last.
I couldn't understand why it traded so short in running, with the winner trading up to 4.0.
Backing the Johnson horses in the winter use to be a little goldmine, but I swore not to touch them weeks ago, but he showed some recent form.
"decided to leave 'em alone today"
Which is exactly what I should have done. No real damage done, but why I got involved in the 3:30 I don't know. I think that because it was such a nightmare to work through, I ended up backing something. As soon as I sensed how difficult the race was, I should have ignored the race. Maybe feeling over confident as I've had a few winners lately.
Time to take a break.
MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.10 FONTWELL
Midnight Charmer only has to repeat either one of his last two races to take this. He drops in class after finishing a 10l third to Badger Foot in a 0-105 last time. The second has franked the form by being beat a head in another 0-115 off 5lbs higher. Previously, Midnight Charmer had won a 0-105 off 81. He had Roc De Guye 22ls back in fourth and he has gone on to finish second to Drumlang in a 0-115. Midnight Charmer is 7lbs higher than his win but 1lb lower than last time and the drop into 0-95 will suit.
Princely Hero is 2-23 round Fontwell, 1-2 over this distance. His record in 0-100 or less reads 3-15 and that improves to 3-4 when rated 89 or 90. He is off 93 today and he has placed three times from four races off 92 and 93 when racing in 0-100 or worse to suggest he will be thereabouts. The form of his win in a 0-90 last time looks suspect as Overton Lad got within 5ls of him and he has a rating of just 66 and has gone 3.5years without a win. This is over 6f shorter, isn’t a problem, but he just struggles to win chases off marks above 90, 2-28.Both wins came in the summer of 2011 and he is 0-25 since but he has placed in nine.
West Bay Hoolie is a 16 race maiden under rules with just one placed effort. He has shown nothing in three chases. The only positive is Paul Moloney is 2-4 in handicap chases for Helen Nelmes. He has been well backed this morning from double figure odds. He was backed from 10/1 to 6/1 last time and pulled up. He must have shown something at home but all of his dam’s three offspring have failed to win a race and he is the only one to have placed. He is by Nomadic Way who is yet to sire winner of this low a mark in a handicap chase, 0-14 off marks 72 or less and just one place.
Zhukov is 2-6 in handicap chases at Fontwell. He was tailed off on his return from a year off. He is 1lb lower than his last win round here and he should run well. He is 3-5 in 0-95 or 0-90 handicap chases.
Cypress Grove is 2-4 in chases at Fontwell. However, he is 0-7 over 19f-21f with just one place. Has won when fresh before.
Malibu Sun was pulled on his chasing debut on his debut for Ben Pauling. His only win is a maiden hurdle two years ago on good to firm. On his hurdles form he is possibly well in here off 95. He could run well but it is still a big ask with 11-12.
Curragh Dancer has a couple of wins at Fontwell to his name, 1-11 in chases. He won a three runner affair off 79 two years ago. He is down to 60 now and is 9lbs wrong here.
Conclusion: Curragh Dancer, Princely Hero and Cypress Grove should force the pace here. It won’t be frenetic but it should be enough to ensure Midnight Charmer has something to aim at. His form is the strongest in the field and he will find this much easier than last time. Zhukov could run well if he is over whatever kept him off the track for a year and he looks a danger.
Southwell 1.30.
Tried to post this morning but computer running like crap.
Laffan @ 7/1
Galician @
Fav looks nailed on with course form but C2 and dropping back a furlong has got me thinking its worth taking on. Laffan is in fair form and went on f/s at a lower level.
Surprising Galician hasnt gone to Dubai, but of the untried ones on the track, he looks the one most likely to handle it, or even improve.
[QUOTE=MLMRob;544162]MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.10 FONTWELL
Princely Hero is 2-23 round Fontwell, 1-2 over this distance. His record in 0-100 or less reads 3-15 and that improves to 3-4 when rated 89 or 90. He is off 93 today and he has placed three times from four races off 92 and 93 when racing in 0-100 or worse to suggest he will be thereabouts. The form of his win in a 0-90 last time looks suspect as Overton Lad got within 5ls of him and he has a rating of just 66 and has gone 3.5years without a win. This is over 6f shorter, isn’t a problem, but he just struggles to win chases off marks above 90, 2-28.Both wins came in the summer of 2011 and he is 0-25 since but he has placed in nine.
Presume you mean chases only ? He's run 36 times at Fontwell in all.
"The owls are not what they seem"
Good Luck
1.20 Uttoxeter-Mystifiable
1pt Win @ 4-1 [Bet 365] BOG & 2pts Place @ Betfair Sp
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
[QUOTE=Diamond Geezer;544165]Originally Posted by MLMRob
yeah chases
Totally agree with you Doomster. I think Galician who has placed 8 times this season from 11 races in 0-100 or less with just one win is a banker to place. My only reservation is this is her 23rd race of 2013.
Great call Rob, had to fight hard for it but stayed on well.
Good call Rob
Well done again Rob.
I thought this would be too sharp until I noticed the ground was riding slower than reported so got on in running, with a place lay Zhukov.
Relieved to finish the day in front.
Thanks.
Spot on, Rob....once again!!
Well done, Rob. I didn't see your post today, but may have had a go if I had.
Just woke up to an awful set of results. Narrowed it down to these yesterday at Southwell.
1st Pensax Lad 5/4F
2nd Spitfire 11/8F
1st No Win No Fee 4/1
1st Sakash 9/4J
Didn't have a bean on!
Came nearest to betting with No Win No Fee. Also got an email tracker thing from ATR for one of Steve Lewis Hamiltons early season to follows at Fontwell (1st Bucking The Trend 8/1), just for some additional salt in the wound. Not that I'd have bothered, but even so.
4am here and what a great way to start the day.
Cheers guys.
Chris
Take it as a positive. You have read the races correctly and even though no beans were spent or made, you didn't make an incorrect call.
I know you're right, Rob. They were all a bit too risky really, which is why I didn't bet. It's just the way the cookie crumbles at times. It's the one thing that still gets to me, but I know if I followed everything I'd narrowed it down to, I'd be throwing money away.
Calm now, it's just the initial scrolling through the results while repeating some profanity louder and louder with each result. When I got down to Sakash I had to pace about in the Kitchen for half an hour, mumbling shite to myself.
2nd @ 2.08
Profit after reduction of 1.06pts
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Trip looks ideal for Kayaan in the lucky last at Leicester.
He smashed up a field in a handicap hurdle by 6 length off 4 pound lower in May at Market Rasen, the first four home all won races since. He's not too badly handicapped on that, and double figure prices look big.
Last edited by High Rate; 11th December 2013 at 6:43 AM.
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