4.10 Taunton-Minella Scamp @ 15-8 [Boylesports] BOG
Looked green on rules debut, should come on tons and must go close unless any of the newcomers are anything special
4.10 Taunton-Minella Scamp @ 15-8 [Boylesports] BOG
Looked green on rules debut, should come on tons and must go close unless any of the newcomers are anything special
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Southwell 12.50 Rievaulx Ranger @ 32.0
Having a pop at this although jockey has a poor record for todays trainer of 4%, but he was used to in a claimer for his only win.
Sire has also had a winner at the track and the horse carried some confidence on his only run.
Will need to break better than last time but it's an open race with the fav the only horse with course form.
Broke OK but hated the kickback then taken down the far side.
The winner had the best sire stats at the track, so really should have covered that one.
Southwell 3.20 Cadeaux Pearl. Win @ 14.5
Royal Bajan. Saver @ 5.4
It would be no shock for CP to step up back on fibresand off this mark.
I'm happy to take on Ypres and Monsieur Jamie, so gone for Bajan who is still fairly treated on his track form.
Always interests me when you can bet odds against on a total that comes in under the buy quote on the spread markets.
In this instance Paddy Power are betting over 14L at 6/4 on the total winning distances at Kempton's evening meeting today. The spread market is 13.5-14.5 and other bookies are offering over 16 at 15/8, over 15.5 at 9/4, over 15.5 at 13/8, over 15 at 7/4 and over 15.25 at 13/8 so PP are offering a standout punt.
The bet itself has 8 races to accumulate the required over 14L and includes 4 races with a favourite under 6/4.
Similar to the other night, looking for something to give us a run against the short priced fav in the 5.50.
Flamborough Breeze is a personal favourite of mine, love the way this dashing grey zooms up the straight to collar the leaders late on but certainly has it all to do from the 14 draw, hopefully will get placed at least.
At a bigger price Lady Sylvia catches the eye with Mr Tuite again retaining the services of Silvester de Sousa,(this is the only ride he's had for Tuite).
Just touched off by course specialist Diplomatic last time( 7 wins here), but also ran a very good race when 4th to Silver Lace when had a bad run through, the 2nd and 3rd won here nto as well, looks an EW prospect at 16/1.
Good luck SJ.
I actually thought the fav would drift but no sign of that.
I thought Absent Amy was a fair price @ 16.0. Goes on p/t and got no kind of run when last here.
A combination of going too hard and trip probably caused the poor run lto ( hit 1.69 in running), so the drop back should help.
I'm throwing LS into the mix as well.
You got out of jail in the last.
Well done Steve.
Eastlake, 1.35, was a revelation on his first outing this season. Ridden confidently, he showed more speed than he ever had previously, to come right away from King's Grey (no slouch himself), and looked to have plenty more in hand than the 5lb he's been raised for it.
Further improvement should be forthcoming for this stiffer test, and the current 6/1 nowhere near does him justice.
I like a couple of outsiders in that race.
Consigliere (50/1) and Oh Crick (20/1) are temptingly well handicapped if they can get close to their best form of the last year or so.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I've backed Ballygarvey, who just looks too big at 16-1. Tempted to back Eastlake as well though.
Dresden is on the up in the 3:50 and were the horse with a more fashionable trainer would surely be shorter in the betting. There's no justification for making it a 40/1 chance. I think it'll run well. Ladbrokes go shorter btw.
Last edited by marbler; 15th November 2013 at 1:16 PM.
Good Luck
Having an interest in a couple at Lingfield [BOG]
1.25-Paris Rose @ 5-1 [Paddy Power] Each/Way [Trainer in form]
1.55-Brother Tiger @ 12-1 [Betfred] Each/Way [Dark horse in race]
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Just the one bet for me today in the 15:25 Newcastle, Gurkha Brave e/w at currently available 14/1.
Only gone half stakes, as I'm not a fan of 5F sprints, but do have a soft spot for this CD.
WOLV 5:30 BEACH RHYTHM 9/2 EW
I had it running to around the 60 mark two runs back over todays CD. Off 53 today and should really prefer the drop back to 5F, the 6F Lingfield race running wasnt bad at all considering. Draw great after the 2 NR's. Not too keen on the idea of Cathy Gannon riding, she's ridden once before, but that was before the headgear was applied which seems to have made a bit of a difference.
MAJOR MUSCARI
Not weighted too badly, but looks outclassed.
I think BEACH RHYTHM while likely to lead, will be too good for both BEACON TARN and VOLCANIC DUST over this CD.
BOROGUH BOY
One of two from the yard, might run into a place as the others run out of steam. I think BEACH RHYTHM will keep going just that little bit longer than what that one will need though.
TONGALOOMA
This one has me worried, and has made me decide to play EW. The yard is in good form, down in weights, dropping in class. Though does have a very tricky draw to overcome, which is just enough to have me stay with Beach Rhythm (with an EW safety net).