Had a soft spot for First Flow from his run before the Supreme but left him alone today due to the ground. Well done Grassy.
Had a soft spot for First Flow from his run before the Supreme but left him alone today due to the ground. Well done Grassy.
Grasshopper (21st November 2020)
That's perhaps the most gruelling race I've seen at Haydock. Christ.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Do many mares go back into racing after having a foal like Snow Leopardess and does anyone know why this has happened?
Illegitimi non carborundum
He was impressive today but ouch, optimally he'd be a year older. If they all get there
Sire Du Berlais
Fury Road
Thyme Hill
Mcfabulous
It'll be a much better renewal than last season's
Roksana is targeting it now too. The trial on Hennessy weekend looks like a belter as well with most of them turning up.
Three of those were novices last year though. I personally never take ratings into account in that scenario. Not since Peddlers Cross was fav over Sprinter Sacre for the Arkle until the Christmas of that particular season because he had a higher OR
Yes, they're entitled to improve into their second season but Main Fact is likely to be rated higher than them come Tuesday and has already shown his curve is steep.
If somebody offered you 50/1 right now wouldn't you be tempted?
Illegitimi non carborundum
Nice shout with Main Fact Maurice. Given our selections I did the reverse forecast that paid more than I expected.
Cheers, Maruco.
I was genuinely tempted to try the forecast too but am trying to build up my tank having been forced into betting small amounts due to my eyes and avoiding multiples that served me well when I was well ahead.
I'm pleased with how my ratings and interpretations of them are going at the moment but it's a long road ahead. If I'd done a forecast today it would probably have been Capeland/Marracudja and they got caught up in a pace that collapsed.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Plenty to like about Main Fact’s form chances in a Stayers, but he’s been on the go a long time now, and you’d be wanting them to stick him away soon. The yard would need to try and resist the temptation of keeping going with him, if they’re serious about a Cheltenham bid. He’s had 10 runs this calendar year, and would surely benefit from being freshened-up again.
The other note of caution is that he seems heavily dependent on deep ground, and that isn’t exactly the norm during Festival week.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 22nd November 2020 at 12:05 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
It seems he does nothing away from the track so a race every so often seems no big deal. His Flat wins would be no more than training gallops given his rating and it was 252 days back to his last hurdles race.
He's a freak.
It's highly unusual for any horse to win 9 races in a row, let alone nine handicaps. Has any horse ever won nine handicaps in a row before?
I'm not convinced he needs very deep ground either. A couple of his wins on 'heavy' produced times more in keeping with good-to-soft ground.
I'll worry about the weather nearer the time but I've never said Main Fact will win the Stayers' Hurdle. I just backed him in the belief his ability was seriously under-rated by the market.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Grasshopper (22nd November 2020)
1.53 Uttoxeter-Northern Princess
Each Way @ 7-1 [Bet 365]
Coming back in trip should suit her
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
We had a mare , Shesha Bear, at our yard for a while who was the dam of Pasaka Boy, who won the Epsom sprint amongst other races. Anyway, she had foaled him but it was a very difficult pregnancy and he was a red bag delivery, and the whole experience took a lot out of her so they decided to put her back in training, where she has some success for another couple of seasons. She left us when in foal again to go to the National Stud as she had a date booked with Dick Turpin, and was thought they could handle any complications better than where she was, which was perfectly fair.
Is She Diesel is another one that had time out to have a foal and went back into training more recently. 2017 season she had a very good year on the track so maybe they thought good time to put her in foal?
Vote Alfie!!!!
moe (22nd November 2020)
If you rate Main Fact as highly as you do Maurice, the second in the race paid a huge compliment to the winner of this seasons Stayers.
You probably didn’t rate the Thursday of the Festival because of your eye issues, but you may want to go back and do it, and I suspect you’ll draw the same conclusion.
Yes, Maruco, I already did during the summer when my eyes were working for a spell. I went very high (thought I'd emailed you) with the Pertemps Final, which was why I was keen to have yesterday's runner-up onside.
I also think LO is better than he really got credit for at the time because the race most definitely fell apart but that wasn't his fault.
However I do have SDB on a higher mark than LO and SDB is on the kind of curve that could take him alongside Paisley Park's best form. SDB gave TW roughly a 18/19lbs beating while MF gave him an 8lbs beating (ignoring Gillard's allowance) so SDB's current advantage is obvious. However, MF is improving rapidly and I felt worth getting on my side at 50/1 before yesterday's race.
Other than something from last year's Ballymore or Albert Bartlet coming on this season, SDB strikes me as the most likely winner of the Stayers' Hurdle at this stage but he isn't 50/1.
Illegitimi non carborundum