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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #21341
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Had a soft spot for First Flow from his run before the Supreme but left him alone today due to the ground. Well done Grassy.

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    Grasshopper (21st November 2020)

  3. #21342
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    That's perhaps the most gruelling race I've seen at Haydock. Christ.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First Flow and Song For Someone, Grasshopper! Brilliant stuff. Hope you doubled them.
    No double on those, DO, but healthy-enough singles (Main Fact too), and the tricast in the Snow Leopardess race, so a very handy day all round.

    LIT cost me a treble with SFS and Notebook, but you can’t have it all, I suppose.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    That's perhaps the most gruelling race I've seen at Haydock. Christ.
    They looked fu*cked with a circuit-and-a-half to go.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Do many mares go back into racing after having a foal like Snow Leopardess and does anyone know why this has happened?

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I’ve backed Main Fact for both the Champion Hurdle (66/1) and Stayers’ Hurdle (50/1) as there is simply no way of knowing when and where his steep curve will plateau. If he wins this he’ll go up at least 5lbs. If he hacks up it could be 10lbs which will take him into the same ball park as last season’s principals and improvement beyond that would take him closer to Paisley park.
    Main Fact now 25/1 tops for the Stayers' Hurdle and as short as 14/1 in a place. I think he'll go up 8lbs for today to 155 but I'll firm up that idea in a couple of days. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the Cheltenham hill.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He was impressive today but ouch, optimally he'd be a year older. If they all get there
    Sire Du Berlais
    Fury Road
    Thyme Hill
    Mcfabulous

    It'll be a much better renewal than last season's

  9. #21348
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Roksana is targeting it now too. The trial on Hennessy weekend looks like a belter as well with most of them turning up.

  10. #21349
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post

    Sire Du Berlais
    Fury Road
    Thyme Hill
    Mcfabulous
    ORs:

    SDB 158
    Fury Road 151
    Thyme Hill 151
    Mcfab 153

    Plenty of improvement needed from three of them.

    Roksana 153 + allowance frightens me more.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st November 2020 at 6:27 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #21350
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Three of those were novices last year though. I personally never take ratings into account in that scenario. Not since Peddlers Cross was fav over Sprinter Sacre for the Arkle until the Christmas of that particular season because he had a higher OR










  12. #21351
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, they're entitled to improve into their second season but Main Fact is likely to be rated higher than them come Tuesday and has already shown his curve is steep.

    If somebody offered you 50/1 right now wouldn't you be tempted?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Nice shout with Main Fact Maurice. Given our selections I did the reverse forecast that paid more than I expected.

  14. #21353
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, Maruco.

    I was genuinely tempted to try the forecast too but am trying to build up my tank having been forced into betting small amounts due to my eyes and avoiding multiples that served me well when I was well ahead.

    I'm pleased with how my ratings and interpretations of them are going at the moment but it's a long road ahead. If I'd done a forecast today it would probably have been Capeland/Marracudja and they got caught up in a pace that collapsed.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #21354
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes, they're entitled to improve into their second season but Main Fact is likely to be rated higher than them come Tuesday and has already shown his curve is steep.

    If somebody offered you 50/1 right now wouldn't you be tempted?
    Plenty to like about Main Fact’s form chances in a Stayers, but he’s been on the go a long time now, and you’d be wanting them to stick him away soon. The yard would need to try and resist the temptation of keeping going with him, if they’re serious about a Cheltenham bid. He’s had 10 runs this calendar year, and would surely benefit from being freshened-up again.

    The other note of caution is that he seems heavily dependent on deep ground, and that isn’t exactly the norm during Festival week.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 22nd November 2020 at 12:05 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It seems he does nothing away from the track so a race every so often seems no big deal. His Flat wins would be no more than training gallops given his rating and it was 252 days back to his last hurdles race.

    He's a freak.

    It's highly unusual for any horse to win 9 races in a row, let alone nine handicaps. Has any horse ever won nine handicaps in a row before?

    I'm not convinced he needs very deep ground either. A couple of his wins on 'heavy' produced times more in keeping with good-to-soft ground.

    I'll worry about the weather nearer the time but I've never said Main Fact will win the Stayers' Hurdle. I just backed him in the belief his ability was seriously under-rated by the market.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Grasshopper (22nd November 2020)

  18. #21356
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    1.53 Uttoxeter-Northern Princess

    Each Way @ 7-1 [Bet 365]

    Coming back in trip should suit her
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  19. #21357
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moe View Post
    Do many mares go back into racing after having a foal like Snow Leopardess and does anyone know why this has happened?
    We had a mare , Shesha Bear, at our yard for a while who was the dam of Pasaka Boy, who won the Epsom sprint amongst other races. Anyway, she had foaled him but it was a very difficult pregnancy and he was a red bag delivery, and the whole experience took a lot out of her so they decided to put her back in training, where she has some success for another couple of seasons. She left us when in foal again to go to the National Stud as she had a date booked with Dick Turpin, and was thought they could handle any complications better than where she was, which was perfectly fair.
    Is She Diesel is another one that had time out to have a foal and went back into training more recently. 2017 season she had a very good year on the track so maybe they thought good time to put her in foal?
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    moe (22nd November 2020)

  21. #21358
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    1.53 Uttoxeter-Northern Princess

    Each Way @ 7-1 [Bet 365]

    Coming back in trip should suit her
    Well backed but ran poorly and seemed unsuited by the soft ground
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  22. #21359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It seems he does nothing away from the track so a race every so often seems no big deal. His Flat wins would be no more than training gallops given his rating and it was 252 days back to his last hurdles race.

    He's a freak.

    It's highly unusual for any horse to win 9 races in a row, let alone nine handicaps. Has any horse ever won nine handicaps in a row before?

    I'm not convinced he needs very deep ground either. A couple of his wins on 'heavy' produced times more in keeping with good-to-soft ground.

    I'll worry about the weather nearer the time but I've never said Main Fact will win the Stayers' Hurdle. I just backed him in the belief his ability was seriously under-rated by the market.
    If you rate Main Fact as highly as you do Maurice, the second in the race paid a huge compliment to the winner of this seasons Stayers.

    You probably didn’t rate the Thursday of the Festival because of your eye issues, but you may want to go back and do it, and I suspect you’ll draw the same conclusion.

  23. #21360
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    If you rate Main Fact as highly as you do Maurice, the second in the race paid a huge compliment to the winner of this seasons Stayers.

    You probably didn’t rate the Thursday of the Festival because of your eye issues, but you may want to go back and do it, and I suspect you’ll draw the same conclusion.
    Yes, Maruco, I already did during the summer when my eyes were working for a spell. I went very high (thought I'd emailed you) with the Pertemps Final, which was why I was keen to have yesterday's runner-up onside.

    I also think LO is better than he really got credit for at the time because the race most definitely fell apart but that wasn't his fault.

    However I do have SDB on a higher mark than LO and SDB is on the kind of curve that could take him alongside Paisley Park's best form. SDB gave TW roughly a 18/19lbs beating while MF gave him an 8lbs beating (ignoring Gillard's allowance) so SDB's current advantage is obvious. However, MF is improving rapidly and I felt worth getting on my side at 50/1 before yesterday's race.

    Other than something from last year's Ballymore or Albert Bartlet coming on this season, SDB strikes me as the most likely winner of the Stayers' Hurdle at this stage but he isn't 50/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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