Where my thoughts are heading (written at teatime yesterday). I've edited it in red.
Chel 1.05 - I took 50/1 Lamanver Pippin for the Hennessy a day or two after the weights came out but the trainer seems to feel the Welsh National is a more likely target. He’ll be a few pounds out of the weights for Newbury and wouldn’t pick up a penalty for this race but it would still be a nice prize to earn along the way. Deep down I don’t believe Lamanver Pippin is fast enough for a Hennessy even off bottom weight or will stay well enough for a Welsh National since he was slowing down a great deal through the last half-mile of the NH Chase when last seen, losing over 25 lengths to Ravenhill and Lord Du Mesnil from three out to the line. He’s young enough to improve a fair bit into his second season and could win this but I can let him go at the head of the betting (11/2 jf tops teatime Friday). At 7/1 I prefer the look of Storm Control who is top-rated overall and has the best jockey in the race but a win for the Tizzard horse won’t displease me. Had to settle for 6/1 this morning.
Chel 1.40 - I would be happy just to watch this race but Quel Destin strikes me as seriously over-priced at around 5/1. I backed Fusil Raffles for the Arkle after reading Simon Rowlands’s assessment of his recent win – he suggested few contenders would put up a performance of that merit between now and March – but that win represented a big step up from his hurdles form and Quel Destin not only was a better hurdler (on ORs) but gets 3lbs here and is entitled to improve just as much for the switch to chasing. He is also entitled to be regarded as an Arkle contender. Again had to settle for 4/1 this morning.
Chel 2.50 - This might not be a very deep race. A lot of them are relative failures as chasers starting back over hurdles. Tea Clipper is the progressive one but his position at the head of the market presumes he’s improved enough to win, which might be an over-presumption. At around 14/1 Tobefair looks to have been under-estimated yet again at his favourite track. He’s a solid each-way punt. Two of the market leaders, including Tea Clipper, have come out so everything has been cut. Took 10/1 to the extra place.
Chel 3.25 - Plenty of these are entitled to improve into their second season but it’s also Shinobi’s second season and he looks to have already stepped up. The official handicapper and RPRs have taken a modest view of his win last month but he gave 6lbs and 14-length beating to a 120-rated opponent who went off at just 2/1 and seemed to have no excuses. I’ve taken the glass-half-full approach and allowed him full kudos for the performance and it’s possible he can improve again so 17/2 is some price if I’m justified. Son Of Camas was last seen in the Ballymore but was 50/1 on the day so clearly not a great deal was expected and I can’t back him at 11/4. Nebuchadnezzar might be worth a saver at 20/1 representing the yard of the short-shot Shinobi beat. Shinobi seems very weak this morning but I'm not put off. I took 14/1 and an ew double with Tobefair but in the time I've been typing this Shinobi has been taken out. I'll settle for an each-way pop at Nebuchadnezzar at 33/1 with the extra place on offer.