What are you backing Today?

[Desert Orchid]

Main bet of the day for me is Strait Of Hormuz, 4.10 Nwm. I've had to sacrifice the extra place for the sake of getting 14/1 as money has started to come for it.

Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

This is usually a good race and in terms of value wouldn’t be far off normal, unlike some of the mega heritage handicaps this season. The Wokingham, for example, was worth only about £40k to the winner. There has to be a fair chance that a lot of these will have been targeting this race for some time. They’re probably all on curves so I’m going to play safe enough and stick with Strait Of Hormuz who is in pole position on my figures and possibly on as steep a curve as anything. He stayed on strongly last time to beat Derevo who was many people’s pick for the Cambridgeshire on that form (top-rated with Timeform) and this extra distance should suit. He has winning form in soft too. He’s probably over-priced because he isn’t in a big stable (16/1 available). I’ll settle for him each-way against the field at the best place terms available and hope for the best.

[Desert Orchid]

Main bet of the day for me is Strait Of Hormuz, 4.10 Nwm. I've had to sacrifice the extra place for the sake of getting 14/1 as money has started to come for it.

Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

This is usually a good race and in terms of value wouldn’t be far off normal, unlike some of the mega heritage handicaps this season. The Wokingham, for example, was worth only about £40k to the winner. There has to be a fair chance that a lot of these will have been targeting this race for some time. They’re probably all on curves so I’m going to play safe enough and stick with Strait Of Hormuz who is in pole position on my figures and possibly on as steep a curve as anything. He stayed on strongly last time to beat Derevo who was many people’s pick for the Cambridgeshire on that form (top-rated with Timeform) and this extra distance should suit. He has winning form in soft too. He’s probably over-priced because he isn’t in a big stable (16/1 available). I’ll settle for him each-way against the field at the best place terms available and hope for the best.

Totally inept from Frank Spencer, letting the horse drift right out the back in the first furlong on a day when everything was winning from the front half of the action. Either that or the horse wasn't off (although it was strongly backed through the morning, suggesting otherwise) although it's also possible he was riding to orders as the trainer had stated he's a hold-up horse.

I would love to see some stats regarding the winning percentages of horses in big races when they're ridden from last compared with those ridden from midfield or nearer the front.

[barjon]

Totally inept from Frank Spencer, letting the horse drift right out the back in the first furlong on a day when everything was winning from the front half of the action. Either that or the horse wasn't off (although it was strongly backed through the morning, suggesting otherwise) although it's also possible he was riding to orders as the trainer had stated he's a hold-up horse.

I would love to see some stats regarding the winning percentages of horses in big races when they're ridden from last compared with those ridden from midfield or nearer the front.

..........particularly when the going is soft.

[Euronymous]

Some good races today but struggling to find many opportunities.

The Dewhurst looks fascinating and there is an angle or two. The impression I have of the Hannon pair, I can't split them. Both look quality prospects but he's been very active on social media going on about Chindit and his work and barely mentioning Etonian. I like to avoid all trainer chatter if I can help it and a 10/3-14/1 price diff between these two is bogus and I've backed the latter.

The other angle comes via the National Stakes. Now, Thunder Moon was impressive that day but Wembley suffered a horrible trip. He was slow out the gate costing him a length and had to be switched wide twice before rattling home. Again, the price diff between these two colts 5/2-11/1 is excessive and I've dutched Wembley with Etonian.

Of the others I think you have to be against impressive Gimcrack winners in this historically. It's such a different test.

The Harrington entrant was impressive lto but looks to me like a good ground horse.

Small ew on Smart Champion in the ces. Very eye catching at Goodwood. **** knows if he'll stay but I'm willing to pay the price of finding out at 40/1

First jumps bet of the season will be Grand Sancy in the nc at Cheppers. Not sure the fav will like the track

[reet hard]

Roulston Scar 3.10Y is a progressive 4yo which loves York and handles cut well. His Nottingham win on his return looked little more than a warm-up for this.
12/1 B365

[an capall]

Two bets today: Thunder Moon, 11/4 BF, on whom I am very, very sweet and Vis a Vis (70 win BF, 33/1 ew 1st 8, Sky Bet).

[Marb]

I'm with Euro on Etonian to out run the odds. Tranchee would be a nice winner having highlighted him earlier in the week, I haven't got a lot on 12/1 I took but flat racing for me is only for a flutter. Some Chaos can run well at Chepstow. I've gone off Reshoun in the Ceserewitch, he's drifted to a price where I can't seriously fancy him to place. I've taken something else instead. Not So Sleepy I went for, no idea why.

[reet hard]

Katskill Nap Irish Ces: Ran well on first flat run for WMP on ground probably too quick for him.
EW 14/1 B365

[reet hard]

That went well.
Natural History 4.25G ran a blinder in a valuable Haydock race on hvy. Won a nothing race at Chester since, but still retains his Haydock mark.
7/2 B365

[barjon]

That went well.
Natural History 4.25G ran a blinder in a valuable Haydock race on hvy. Won a nothing race at Chester since, but still retains his Haydock mark.
7/2 B365

... but that went better

[reet hard]

Cheers, BJ.
From my tracker:
National League 2.30M had a very troubled passage, in a better race than this, at Donny, then dwelt at Ayr, and from his coffin box draw, had little choice but race around the outside, the whole way. With a strong pace predicted, this 7f shouldn't be a problem, nor the ground.
EW @14/1 B365

[reet hard]

Cold Stare 5.00L absolutely loves deep ground and invariably performs well on it, much as he did when winning a good contest at Goodwood recently (official description was 'heavy', originally). Took Hills 17/2 on what's a rock solid ew bet imo. Also done a rfc with the Goodwood runner-up,Magical Wish.

[Marb]

Hereford 3.33

Ayr Of Elegance has good Irish form, also might improve somewhat with a first time tongue tie, I have taken 25/1 each way.

[PlaceBacker]

Two Joao Moreira bets in Hong Kong tomorrow

1.45-Wild West Wing @ 15-2
2.15-Noble Man @ 7-1

1pt win on each [Skybet]

[Desert Orchid]

I got a tracker alert through this evening.

I put up Theflyingportrait when it ran at Cartmel back in August and noted that it wasn't off an inch. It looks like there's money for it in tomorrow's 5.15 Wetherby. 12/1 is still there so I'm on.

[viking]

The favourite looks hard to beat in the 5.15 at Wetherby as he looked progressive last time and is 2lb well in under his penalty. Zizaneur could go well if his jumping holds up but Master Work looks a decent each way alternative at 12/1

In the 3.15 at Punchestown Alpha des Obeaux was tempting but concerned by the drift (15/2 from 5/1)

Having put up Tintern Theatre last time (NR) I’ll be backing him today Wetherby 4.10. Obviously risky after 2 years off but fully 12lb below the mark he won a good handicap off in December 2017 at Kempton


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[PlaceBacker]

Two Joao Moreira bets in Hong Kong tomorrow

1.45-Wild West Wing @ 15-2 Won
2.15-Noble Man @ 7-1

1pt win on each [Skybet]

6.5pts Profit

[Marb]

The favourite looks hard to beat in the 5.15 at Wetherby as he looked progressive last time and is 2lb well in under his penalty. Zizaneur could go well if his jumping holds up but Master Work looks a decent each way alternative at 12/1

In the 3.15 at Punchestown Alpha des Obeaux was tempting but concerned by the drift (15/2 from 5/1)

Having put up Tintern Theatre last time (NR) I’ll be backing him today Wetherby 4.10. Obviously risky after 2 years off but fully 12lb below the mark he won a good handicap off in December 2017 at Kempton


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I've taken Alpha Des Obeaux despite the drift.

Moss Gill is out in the Rous stakes at 3:45 in Nottingham.

[Maxbet]

Little holiday for Crowley there

[reet hard]

Give It Some Teddy 2.48H won a valuable Redcar h'cap in deep ground last backend, and was sold to present connections shortly afterwards.Returned to the fray at Newmarket, he ran poorly, and wore a tongue tie for his latest, where he was a slightly unlucky 4th over 1m at Newbury. Should strip fitter today, and worth a punt at B365's 8/1