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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #20981
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I can't see past Gaiyyath myself. There has to be a danger that they’re taking him to the well too often but there’s also the chance that he isn’t taking much out of himself in his races, so superior is he. After he won at Newmarket (I think) they said he only lost 3kg in the race. His mid-race pace is maybe just too strong for everything else and Buick is fast becoming the best judge of pace next to Dettori.
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  2. #20982
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    That Juddmonte though Dessie, was it that good? Magical imo is better elsewhere (was below form in the YO behind Enable the previous year) and Lord North is a Group 2 beast. I think his Eclipse was a fair bit better. Plus three week gap is a doubt at his price.

  3. #20983
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    To be fair to Japan, Euro, there was a valid excuse for his KG run. I'd still have him as a 12f horse btw; just suffered a poor trip in last year's Arc.

  4. #20984
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    That Juddmonte though Dessie, was it that good? Magical imo is better elsewhere (was below form in the YO behind Enable the previous year) and Lord North is a Group 2 beast. I think his Eclipse was a fair bit better. Plus three week gap is a doubt at his price.
    York can throw up some iffy performances and I wouldn't judge Gaiyyath on just that. I agree about the Eclipse and I think Leopardstown will suit him a lot better in the sense that he can take them close to the edge of their comfort zone in the back straight, get a good breather round the bend and kick away in the straight. If he's got a lead on them after the bend I can't see them getting near him.
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  5. #20985
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In this 2.50 I'm not sure there's as much between the two Hamdans as the betting suggests. I tried to get 20/1 Mubjir and put it on the longshot thread but py the time I clicked on the price it was 18/1 and by the time I entered my stake 16/1.
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  7. #20986
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    The Irish Champion's an intriguing race, with the odds-on Ghaiyyath susceptible to a pace challenge. Maybe Magical will take him on, with the intent of providing the strong pace that Japan (7/1, Hills) needs at this trip. Will keep stakes small though, as he might just be on his way to the Arc.
    Ghaiyyath overrated, by plenty who should know better, on the back of 3 easy leads. Proof positive that interpreting sectionals solely through maths is not the answer.
    Japan won't have done his Arc odds any harm,either.

  8. #20987
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I can't see past Gaiyyath myself. There has to be a danger that they’re taking him to the well too often
    They finished pretty closely bunched so I'm guessing, pending sectional evidence, that Gaiyyath has under-performed.
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  9. #20988
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    Aye, they'll somehow still find a way to rate him 'best horse in the world'.
    Last edited by reet hard; 12th September 2020 at 5:46 PM.

  10. #20989
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    They finished pretty closely bunched so I'm guessing, pending sectional evidence, that Gaiyyath has under-performed.
    First numbers:

    Using Sotsass on his OR of 119 gives

    Magical 120 (cf OR 121)
    Gaiyyath 121 (cf 130)
    Armory 119 (cf OR 112)
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  11. #20990
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    Though he has a 8-11 Fav to beat tomorrow I think this newcomer will run well

    3.05 Wolverhampton-Naamoos

    Each Way @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  12. #20991
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First numbers:

    Using Sotsass on his OR of 119 gives

    Magical 120 (cf OR 121)
    Gaiyyath 121 (cf 130)
    Armory 119 (cf OR 112)

    Yeah, I think Magical has run to the same level as last year more or less. Amazing she won considering that and how much of a better renewal it looked on paper. I can't believe Armoury did my Sottsass place money.

  13. #20992
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    Another bet for Sha Tin [Hong Kong] this morning, following my favourite jockey there Karis Teetan

    10.10-Multimillion

    Each Way @ 8-1 [Unibet]...5 Places
    Last edited by PlaceBacker; 13th September 2020 at 5:34 AM.
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  14. #20993
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    Liberty Beach 3.10 ran the race of his life in the King's Stand & has the pace and the draw to improve on that here.
    8/1 4places, Betfair

  15. #20994
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First numbers:

    Using Sotsass on his OR of 119 gives

    Magical 120 (cf OR 121)
    Gaiyyath 121 (cf 130)
    Armory 119 (cf OR 112)
    RPRs from yesterday:

    Magical 120 (cf previous career best RPR 124)
    Gaiyyath 122 (cf 131)
    Armory 119 (cf 115)
    Sottsass 119 (cf 123)

    It's hard to get away from the conclusion that Gaiyyath has run a good half a stone below form for whatever reason. My gut says it's one G1 too many too soon.
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  16. #20995
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    And nothing to do with him being overrated in the first place?

  17. #20996
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    On a line through Enable it's crystal that he's better than Magical.
    Main bet today is Port Guillaume in the GPdP. He's impressed both starts this season and looks the best of the field.
    I also like Master of the Seas in the National Stakes. The way he finished last time out was eye catching and imo he should be fav. I thought 10/3 was way overs.
    Have to take on Stradivarius over 12f and Way to Paris looks the obvious one. We know he likes the track and he's been in good form all year.

  18. #20997
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've only just started looking at the Longchamp card.

    I had no idea Serpentine was running and no idea how he can be on offer at 100/30. I think that's an insane price unless he's known to be below form. A fit and well Serpentine cannot lose this race and I can't imagine 'the lads' letting that price last. If they do it would suggest there's a problem with the horse.

    Serpentine, for me, is an above-average Derby winner and should be no better than evens.
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  19. #20998
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    On a line through Enable it's crystal that he's better than Magical.
    Main bet today is Port Guillaume in the GPdP. He's impressed both starts this season and looks the best of the field.
    I also like Master of the Seas in the National Stakes. The way he finished last time out was eye catching and imo he should be fav. I thought 10/3 was way overs.
    Have to take on Stradivarius over 12f and Way to Paris looks the obvious one. We know he likes the track and he's been in good form all year.
    Ghaiyyath's man
    Ghaiyyath's never been.properly taken on before,so ratings prior to that are meaningless.
    Agree about the Golphin horse in the National Stakes though.

  20. #20999
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    Another bet for Sha Tin [Hong Kong] this morning, following my favourite jockey there Karis Teetan

    10.10-Multimillion

    Each Way @ 8-1 [Unibet]...5 Places
    Teetan had 3 winners...but not my bet!
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  21. #21000
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    Though he has a 8-11 Fav to beat tomorrow I think this newcomer will run well

    3.05 Wolverhampton-Naamoos

    Each Way @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
    Nice debut to finish 2nd @ 13-2
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

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