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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #20861
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I would urge caution.

    a) It might not be over its exertions
    b) It's taking on better horses
    c) We don't know how it has taken the travelling so soon after a race
    d) We don't know how closely the Irish and UK ratings for juveniles are harmonised.
    Fortunately my stake was a fraction of what it was the other day. The horse is probably off the boil but it looked like Pythagoras was riding it and opted for the hypotenuse. The real sickener was that I backed Chief Little Hawk at Goodwood.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #20862
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    Cheif Little Hawk a horse who may win a race or two next season as well. Unlikely to be races like the Guineas, but if he trains on he could turn out to be a good 6F horse.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd August 2020 at 3:14 PM.

  3. #20863
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think the odds are the wrong way round and have punted accordingly.
    Got that bit right...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #20864
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Had a small ew earlier on Mamamora (33/1 generally)in the same race. Went too early in a strongly run Balanchine latest and, if she's up for today's race, has the pilot and the draw to at least make the frame. Out & out punt, but the right shape of race for it.

    One day, you'll learn, Col.

  5. #20865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Cheif Little Hawk a horse who may win a race or two next season as well. Unlikely to be races like the Guineas, but if he trains on he could turn out to be a good 6F horse.
    I actually backed him at Ascot off the strength of Kevin Blake saying he was one of their strongest fancies. Hadn’t backed him again until today when I thought he looked well at the start (considering how much he’s run) and he was a big price for an AOB horse.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I had Data Protection joint-top rated with Muraad but much preferred the latter's profile.

    I'd have to suggest, though, that if DP was going to win the Cambridgeshire he wouldn't be winning today.
    I agree but still he deserves a place in the line up.

    That improving handicapper of David Meara's that you won on at Goodwood, called Prompting, is a horse I am looking at for future races. He's entered in the Irish Cambrideshire on Friday, although that race may come quick after his run at York last week.

    He'd top of my radar for our Cambridgeshire though. He's only young and a very exciting prospect for next year too.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd August 2020 at 3:56 PM.

  7. #20867
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Had a small ew earlier on Mamamora (33/1 generally)in the same race. Went too early in a strongly run Balanchine latest and, if she's up for today's race, has the pilot and the draw to at least make the frame. Out & out punt, but the right shape of race for it.
    Super call, well done

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    reet hard (23rd August 2020)

  9. #20868
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    Yes, Reet as Buick took the lead early on I thought of you. Nice piece of pace judgement, shades of Steve Cauthen. Well done.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    reet hard (23rd August 2020)

  11. #20869
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I agree but still he deserves a place in the line up.

    That improving handicapper of David Meara's that you won on at Goodwood, called Prompting, is a horse I am looking at for future races. He's entered in the Irish Cambrideshire on Friday, although that race may come quick after his run at York last week.

    He'd top of my radar for our Cambridgeshire though. He's only young and a very exciting prospect for next year too.
    Re Data Protection, he was only off 85 today. In recent Cambridgeshires you'd probably need to be at least 10lbs higher just to make the cut, then another stone well in to win. If they have a Silver Cambs this year he might have a chance. Best to wait until much nearer the time.

    I suspect Prompting's curve is flattening given that he couldn't win at York the other day. I haven't crunched the numbers for that race yet but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't improve upon his Goodwood figure. One to keep an eye on to see how his next couple of runs pan out or if they come up with an excuse for the other day.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #20870
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    Marb,
    Imo, Prompting ran a blinder the other day but, after chasing a good pace from the off, found it a stiffer test than he faced at Goodwood. Wouldn't stay the Cambridgeshire trip in a horsebox. Quote: (after his 7f win at York):
    : PROMPTING is a nice type. We could have gone to Beverley earlier in the week but we wanted to keep him at seven furlongs. He had an extra three pounds on his back and he's done well to carry top weight. Danny [Tudhope] said he might get a mile - David O'Meara, trainer.
    Last edited by reet hard; 23rd August 2020 at 11:53 PM.

  13. #20871
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Re Data Protection, he was only off 85 today. In recent Cambridgeshires you'd probably need to be at least 10lbs higher just to make the cut, then another stone well in to win. If they have a Silver Cambs this year he might have a chance. Best to wait until much nearer the time.

    I suspect Prompting's curve is flattening given that he couldn't win at York the other day. I haven't crunched the numbers for that race yet but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't improve upon his Goodwood figure. One to keep an eye on to see how his next couple of runs pan out or if they come up with an excuse for the other day.
    This year's Cambs might be different because of the reduced prize money. Last year it was worth just under £100k to the winner. Like the Hunt Cup and Golden Mile, this year it might be half that. Last year you needed to be on 98/99 to make the cut in the Hunt Cup and Cambridgeshire but as recently as 2017 91 sneaked in. You'd probably need to be on at least 95 when the weights come out and be prepared to pick up a penalty in case not too many come out.

    Euronymous has the right idea. It now takes an unexposed Group horse to win the race or a serious improver. Gosden has developed the knack of identifying a proper candidate early in the season, if not the season before, and gearing their campaign to getting them in around the 98-100 mark when they're probably 115-120 in truth. Godolphin do likewise. They have such vast numbers spread among good trainers they can also take the same approach as Gosden. Hamdan Al Maktoum also has that kind of depth of resource. I'm surprised Khaled Abdullah doesn't do it as often. I can't recall his having won it since Tremblant back in the '80s. That might change in future.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Colin Phillips (24th August 2020)

  15. #20872
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    Cheers for feedback fellas.

    Maybe they will run him in Ireland on Friday in the Irish Cambridgeshire over 8F then, who knows eh.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th August 2020 at 12:35 PM.

  16. #20873
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    Small ew (bored silly) Sea Voice 5.15 Bath. Lightly raced 3yo that's won & placed with cut in the ground, 3 races this season, all in higher class on wrong ground (finished last latest, in a 0-100 on g/f ) which won't do his fitness any harm, and is also the choice of Sean Levey.
    20/1 with Corals, but 1've just wasted an hour trying to negotiate their website. Took 20/1 with Skybet earlier.
    Last edited by reet hard; 24th August 2020 at 1:06 PM.

  17. #20874
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Small ew (bored silly) Sea Voice 5.15 Bath. Lightly raced 3yo that's won & placed with cut in the ground, 3 races this season, all in higher class on wrong ground (finished last latest, in a 0-100 on g/f ) which won't do his fitness any harm, and is also the choice of Sean Levey.
    20/1 with Corals, but 1've just wasted an hour trying to negotiate their website. Took 20/1 with Skybet earlier.
    You're getting a taste for the long shots here....

  18. #20875
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    Quote Originally Posted by simmo View Post
    You're getting a taste for the long shots here....
    God forbid, I should ever be seen as a 'value punter'.
    Last edited by reet hard; 24th August 2020 at 3:52 PM.

  19. #20876
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    2.35 Bangor-Enforcement

    Each Way @ 18-1 [Bet 365]

    Ran well when last over fences
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  20. #20877
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    ​2nd
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  21. #20878
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    3 for the quality meeting at Beverley, tomorrow:
    2.30 Le Chiffre 4/1 generally
    3.30 Makanah 7/1 generally
    4.05 Throne Hall 9/4 in a few places.
    Hopefully, there's profit in there somewhere.

  22. #20879
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I hope I'm seriously wrong about this but I think 9/1 is far too long about Ferencvaros beating Celtic in Glasgow tonight. I've also saved on the draw at 9/2.

    We've been unimpressive in the new league campaign and I worry that Lennon is being a bit pig-headed about his team selection. We were very sharp against the Icelandic part-timers last week but the Hungarians will be a different test altogether. We won't have the crowd as a 12th man either.

    I'm genuinely worried about getting through this qualifier but I do hope the worries are ill-founded.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #20880
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Half-time 0-1 but in truth the bookies' odds were about right.

    We have pummelled them and are down to a brilliant individual strike. Picking the ball out of the net is the only thing our keeper has had to do. We should have scored three at the very least so far and I'll be very disappointed (although considerably better off) if we can't turn this round.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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