Busy in work so just the one today.
Oldgrangewood 2.05 Aintree 11/2
First time running since the wind op, think Skelton has a stupidly high strike rate for first time runners since a wind op, not sure of the percentage but certainly one that catches my interest. Add the decent handicap mark as no win for a couple of years, one I’d rather be on side with today.
Good Luck
4.10 Wincanton-Talk Of Fame
Each Way @ 10-1 [Sportingbet]
Interesting newcomer
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Have a little venture over the jumps today, hoping to keep up the good run.
Charlie Snow Angel in the 2.30 Kelso has a decent record here, winning off 95 and a nose 2nd off 94, runs off 94 today, goes well on heavy and gets a load of weight at least a stone from every other horse, beat Halcyon Days here 18 months ago and is 9lb better in with that horse. Fitness has to be taken on trust as stable only had 1 runner so far, but this horse has had 2 2nds 1st time out, and has been placed in 11-19 races, EW bet for me.
CSA just got up for 3rd, will be better for the run.
7.10 Southwell.
Wouldn't say looks vulnerable, but Sommer Katze in the 7.10 Southwell is an odd one, 2nd at Leicester on heavy to a 66/1 shot, the 1st and 3rd horse are next to useless, and the odds on shot in the race may not have performed on Heavy going. This horses sires form is all on soft/heavy ground in France and the few progeny that have won have done so on soft ground.
Some will say ideally suited to Sthwll then but not necessarily.
Arthur Shelby ran at Newcastle in a much better race, down the field but the fastest 7f race that night, although the others were 2 yo races, the filies race ran 0.4 secs slower, has seen the 1st 4 win nto.
Arthurs trainer D Griffiths has never had a 1st time out winner that i can find, so probably not fully wound up, but was pretty close up to 2fs out. Has full brothers that have won on the AW but not at Sthwll. Henry the Sixth was last on debut over 6fs here btn 37 lengths, its sire Milk It Mick is just 2% SR over 7fs and 5% SR on AW, dam won 5 races at Sthwll but never over more than 5fs although placed over 6fs, never ran over 7fs.
Jeans Mate was btn 27 lengths on debut, sire was decent over 5/6fs but didn’t appear to stay over 6fs, won 1 race his 2nd as a 2 yo but had plenty of decent placed form inc in Group races. Has had only a few offspring and none have won on the AW and only 1 winner from 25 runs over 7fs in a seller on GF ground.
Very difficult to be definite but at the odds i'll be laying this fav for a few quid and hoping, but could bolt up with its breeding but form of only race is very poor. Backed Arthur at 7/1 EW with 365 and to be 2nd to fav about 7/4. The other 2 horses ran very poorly on their respective debut runs,
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
Well backed but unplacedOriginally Posted by PlaceBacker
Last edited by PlaceBacker; 13th November 2019 at 7:33 AM.
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
2.15 Ayr-Jessiemac @ 9-2 [Bet Victor]
She can win again off this low weight in the heavy conditions
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Desperate Dan (13th November 2019)
From last to first. Bravo
PlaceBacker (13th November 2019)
Won @ 7-1
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Taunton 3:40 - Jersey Bean caught my eye. Useful hurdler having won a couple of handicap hurdles and worth a bet here in his first start in a handicap chase off an 8 pound low mark than his hurdles rating.
Last edited by Marb; 13th November 2019 at 7:16 PM.
Good stuff mate keep it up.
PlaceBacker (13th November 2019)
Morning
4.00 Ludlow-Torquay
Each Way @ 8-1 [William Hill] 4 Places
Trainer profitable to follow here
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
1.25 Taunton.
Gerry Scott does very well here, Blazing Saddles looks to have a good EW chance in this on his flat form, but may need a bit further over hurdles, has a chance in what looks a poor race though. May well follow up, just hope he doesn't follow through!
Unplaced
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
1.40 Newcastle-Flaming Charmer
Each Way @ 8-1 [Bet 365]
Booking of talented Ben Jones could spark the old boy up
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
3rd!
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
3.20 Wolverhampton-Sandret
Each Way @ 7-1 [William Hill] 4 Places
1/1 on the all weather
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
GL,PB.
Kaser 3.50W has a brilliant record around this track and trip, winning 3 and never out of the first 3 in all 6 races. Given the obstacles he overcame to win his latest, a 5lb rise should be well within his compass.
13/2 best.
PlaceBacker (18th November 2019)
Have a speculative horse in the 1st race at Sthwll, noone bar myself looks to be wanting to back this horse at the moment so may not be off! Other side of coin is could be getting a great price at 25/1+ on betfair.
Meryams Way is the horse over from Ireland, betting suggests Applebys horse is a certainty but this horse ran very well beginning of season on soft ground in Ireland, winning twice and btn neck twice 1st 4 runs, had a break after next run for 3 months and has had 2 comeback runs soft ground, has dropped 4lbs for those 2 runs, last of which was a very good run btn just 3 1/2 lengths. So many horses have come out and won from that race on turf and at Dundalk, some are now rated 10/11 lbs higher.
We obviously dont know how it will take to Sthwell surface but must be hopeful with its liking for a soft surface on turf! Price is ridiculous imo, have backed EW.
4th
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
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