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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #18921
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    In my sickbed in a hotel off work n bored, punted a few :

    Um shama 1235w
    Birch grove 1525w
    Madam jo jo 1345w
    Flighty filia 1615e
    Silver stsrlight 1605r

    Ew yankee - um shama , bowson fred, king of naples, san benedito

    Avoid these like the plague !

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  3. #18922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
    No. Form Horse Stats Days Age Weight Trainer Jockey OR TS MON
    (173)
    Notes RPR
    2 /6333- God's Own CD 192 10 11-9 Tom George Paddy Brennan 156 138 182 ? 171
    3 542-36 San Benedeto tp D 16 7 11-8 Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost 155 136 175 p? 171
    4 321-13 Ozzie The Oscar 17 7 11-4 Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson 151 143 172 p 167
    5 43-115 Theo h D 9 8 10-8 Dr Richard Newland Sam Twiston-Davies 141 114 166 p 164
    1 32F15- Diego Du Charmil t 192 6 11-10 Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden 157 145 161 +p 168

    This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, Iíve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.

    Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. Heís now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests heís finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldnít back him to beat one or two others.

    Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess itís his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, heís entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldnít win although that wasnít a handicap.

    Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest heís still on a curve but this is a big step up again.

    Iím happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, Iím struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. Godís Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and heís 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.

    I think Godís Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.


    Bet

    1 pt win Godís Own 9/2
    Spot on DO

  4. #18923
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
    No. Form Horse Stats Days Age Weight Trainer Jockey OR TS MON
    (173)
    Notes RPR
    2 /6333- God's Own CD 192 10 11-9 Tom George Paddy Brennan 156 138 182 ? 171
    3 542-36 San Benedeto tp D 16 7 11-8 Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost 155 136 175 p? 171
    4 321-13 Ozzie The Oscar 17 7 11-4 Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson 151 143 172 p 167
    5 43-115 Theo h D 9 8 10-8 Dr Richard Newland Sam Twiston-Davies 141 114 166 p 164
    1 32F15- Diego Du Charmil t 192 6 11-10 Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden 157 145 161 +p 168

    This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, Iíve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.

    Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. Heís now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests heís finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldnít back him to beat one or two others.

    Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess itís his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, heís entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldnít win although that wasnít a handicap.

    Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest heís still on a curve but this is a big step up again.

    Iím happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, Iím struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. Godís Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and heís 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.

    I think Godís Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.


    Bet

    1 pt win Godís Own 9/2
    Great call


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  5. #18924
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    Cheers, guys.

    I'm just pleased to be finding winners again. It's been a very frustrating summer and autumn.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #18925
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    Corking call DO, read it and was 50/50 on the 2 so went for San B - simply for the fact have had a few quid back on žt

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  7. #18926
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Godís Own should win this if anywhere near his best but I fear his tendency to belt one or two may cost him. Iíve gone for Theo who gets plenty of weight from the others and was looking for a real threat last time when failing to get home. The 2.5f shorter trip should be in his favour and 10/1 looks a decent enough price


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    Just watched the Haldon GC. Godís Own belted a couple as expected but his class was enough to ensure he got the job done in the end. Theo rather taken off his feet and it was a bit much in hindsight asking him to run well in this grade again in little more than a week


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  8. #18927
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    You could do worse thing than have an EW bet on Wot A Shot 16/1 up at Edinburgh today.

    Said to be fit and well and has been 1st 2nd and 3rd at the track from 3 runs.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  9. #18928
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    2.15 Nott'm
    Latest g/s reading;7.2
    A cracking little sprint which shouldn't be too hard to solve, with only 7 runners.
    Flying Pursuit is easily discounted - has only run once over the trip in 40 outings, and probably needs more cut anyway.
    Can't split Kick On Kick On and Copper Knight but it's handy they're both pace horses drawn high, so I've dutched them and done a rfc (currrently c12/1 on 365).

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  11. #18929
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Assuming Definitly Red ran to his OR of 164, the less experienced Black Corton has probably run to around 160, 7lbs above his OR, with Virgilio on about 159 (OR 157). I reckon BC is probably a 167+ horse in the making.
    RPRs have rated DR at 164 and BC at 160, bang on what I'd anticipated but while the handicapper has left DR on 164 he's only put BC up to 157. I imagine Nicholls won't be too unhappy with that given the hose jumped nowhere near as well as he can. Virgilio has also been left alone so the run hasn't done him any harm either.

    I'm working on my own figures just now but I expect I'll be rating the entire race about 3lbs better. BC will have a +p.

    I've mentioned before that immediate post-race interview comments, which I know some on here dislike, can be illuminating. Danny Cook was ecstatic after the race and talked about how much celebrating they'll be doing.

    Interestingly too, the owner said they felt DR was "seven to ten pounds short of top class".
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th November 2018 at 12:27 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  12. #18930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    You could do worse thing than have an EW bet on Wot A Shot 16/1 up at Edinburgh today.

    Said to be fit and well and has been 1st 2nd and 3rd at the track from 3 runs.


    Wot A Shot Wot A Shot is a winner around here, he quite enjoys this track and he's got his ground conditions. He does need the race to drop right for him to win but if it does then he'd run a nice race. Trainer N.Richards

  13. #18931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    RPRs have rated DR at 164 and BC at 160, bang on what I'd anticipated but while the handicapper has left DR on 164 he's only put BC up to 157. I imagine Nicholls won't be too unhappy with that given the hose jumped nowhere near as well as he can. Virgilio has also been left alone so the run hasn't done him any harm either.

    I'm working on my own figures just now but I expect I'll be rating the entire race about 3lbs better. BC will have a +p.

    I've mentioned before that immediate post-race interview comments, which I know some on here dislike, can be illuminating. Danny Cook was ecstatic after the race and talked about how much celebrating they'll be doing.

    Interestingly too, the owner said they felt DR was "seven to ten pounds short of top class".
    BC's been alloted 157, though whether that still obtains after tomorrow is in the lap of the gods. It's probably a fair reflection of what he achieved at Wetherby,though you'd expect improvement for Newbury. If I were PN I'd be delighted (and first in the queue for the 33/1).

  14. #18932
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    BC's been alloted 157, though whether that still obtains after tomorrow is in the lap of the gods.
    What's happening tomorrow?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  15. #18933
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    Weights are published - according to DG's missive on the race.

  16. #18934
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    2.15 Nott'm
    Latest g/s reading;7.2
    A cracking little sprint which shouldn't be too hard to solve, with only 7 runners.
    Flying Pursuit is easily discounted - has only run once over the trip in 40 outings, and probably needs more cut anyway.
    Can't split Kick On Kick On and Copper Knight but it's handy they're both pace horses drawn high, so I've dutched them and done a rfc (currrently c12/1 on 365).
    Turned a profit, but so easily could have been a cigar. Ho hum.

  17. #18935
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Weights are published - according to DG's missive on the race.
    Yes but he'll still be on 157.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  18. #18936
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    What are you backing Today?

    2.55 Newbury
    Moon Racer may be the value here at 15/2 (4 places with Skybet). The stable seems very confident heíll get the trip and a 3lb rise from last time out when he appeared to have loas in hand may be generous. The jolly looks very short but may well follow up here if the race doesnít come too soon


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    Last edited by viking; 8th November 2018 at 9:58 AM.

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  20. #18937
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    What are you backing Today?

    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    2.55 Newbury
    Moon Racer may be the value here at 15/2 (4 places with Skybet). The stable seems very confident heíll get the trip and a 3lb rise from last time out when he appeared to have loas in hand may be generous. The jolly looks very short but may well follow up here if the race doesnít come too soon


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    Looked as if Moon Racer was ridden purely to qualify and not given a hard time. One Iíll be looking to keep onside for bigger prizes later including the Final of this series


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    Last edited by viking; 8th November 2018 at 10:54 PM.

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  22. #18938
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    Fontwell 3.55 Milkwood 7/1 looks a value e/way bet. The Wincanton bumper he ran in l/t/o is working out well. The 2nd Bold Plan finished 3rd in the nov hurdle at Newbury yesterday.The 6th Drunken Pirate won the Newbury bumper yesterday. The 10th Zyon finished a close 3rd in the Ascot bumper last week. The 5th Boldmere has let the form down but he was badly hampered at the first in a hot novice hurdle and may have lost confidence.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  23. #18939
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    3.15 Doncaster-​Wolf Country

    Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365] 5 Places ,1/4 BOG

    To cap off a great season for Charlie Appleby
    Win some,lose some,but always enjoying it

  24. #18940
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    This is my take on the Badger Ales:

    WNC 3.35 BADGER ALES TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (Class 1) (4yo+ 0-155)Winner £34,170 16 runners 3m1f30y Good To Firm ITV4
    No. Form Horse Stats Days Age Weight Trainer Jockey OR TS MON
    (158)
    Notes RPR
    16 28-051 Sam Red tb D 15 7 10-4 Dan Skelton Mr William Marshall 7 122 119 167 ?
    171? Hd
    158
    1 11043- Present Man t CD 196 8 11-12 Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost 3 144 138 158 p 152
    2 21279- Ramses De Teillee t 206 6 11-9 David Pipe David Noonan 141 91 158 ? p 157
    9 10P43- Dancing Shadow b D 200 9 11-0 Victor Dartnall Conor Shoemark 132 86 157 p 120
    3 710/1- El Bandit D 543 7 11-7 Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden 139 - 156 Hd -
    14 203-43 Captain Buck's tp bf 22 6 10-6 Paul Nicholls Daryl Jacob 124 140 156 154
    8 -37112 Belmount p D 4 9 11-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies Jamie Bargary 132 125 155 p 152
    10 231513 Sumkindofking t 13 7 10-13 Tom George Noel Fehily 131 125 155 p 148
    15 138541 Fingerontheswitch tp D 7 8 10-4 Neil Mulholland Robert Dunne 122 109 155 e Hd 150
    6 1UP-01 Bigbadjohn t C 13 9 11-5 Nigel Twiston-Davies Tom Bellamy 137 132 154 150
    7 7-6322 Forever Field p bf 31 8 11-5 Nicky Henderson Jeremiah McGrath 137 117 153 149
    12 -P312P Bestwork 46 7 10-9 Charlie Longsdon Jonathan Burke 127 135 153 p 153
    4 -11215 Kings Lad t C D 7 11 11-6 Colin Tizzard Richard Johnson 138 85 152 +
    [++]
    149
    5 1P3331 Allelu Alleluia b 17 7 11-5 Jonjo O'Neill Nick Scholfield 137 118 151 ? p 145
    11 321551 Aunty Ann CD 22 7 10-10 Charlie Longsdon Jordan Nailor 7 128 122 151 p 151
    13 7-2512 On Demand p C 25 7 10-7 Colin Tizzard Wayne Hutchinson 125 126 148 146

    This is always a good race and the obvious place to start is with Nicholls’s runners. Present Man is overnight favourite and this might be the time of year to catch him with Bryony Frost’s claim no hindrance in the least. El Bandit could be a blot based on his best hurdles form and allowing the notional 10lbs improvement for fences. He’s effectively a novice, with only one chase in his career and that was a year and a half ago but if this is a long-term plan it’s highly unlikely that Nicholls won’t have been working him over the larger obstacles for some time. But what if the Hennessy is the plan? Jockey bookings suggest Captain Buck’s is the least fancied of the yard’s trio. I have to have some sickness insurance on Kings Lad after last week. My reading of the race tells me he’s better than the bare form at Ascot but he’ll need to be. The only other one for which I can muster enthusiasm is Sam Red but he’s the one I fancy the most. Had I read the form before his last race I’d have been all over him like a rash even though he ended up winning despite it probably being no more than a prep for this. The bare form is nowhere near good enough to win here but it’s his hurdles form and novice chase form last season that strikes me as leaving him seriously under-rated. He was a 139 novice hurdler towards the end of the season before last and appeared to be brought along gently last season in novice chases. However, at Fakenham in April, he ran into a horse called Step Back to whom he tried to concede 12lbs. Losing by 16 lengths over three miles equates to those 12lbs but it doesn’t allow for the ease of the win. Three weeks later Step Back totally destroyed a top class Whitbread field. Ten lengths behind Sam Red at Fakenham was Captain Buck’s, also receiving 12lb. Tomorrow he has to give Sam Red 9lbs if you include the latter’s rider’s claim yet Captain Buck’s is nearly half the price of Sam Red.

    Bets: 1 pt win Sam Red 14/1; 1/4 pt win Kings Lad 20/1
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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