Originally Posted by
Desert Orchid
Stuff I wrote elsewhere yesterday evening (with a few minor edits this morning):
Nwb 12.40 - This race is always worth watching, the last five winners being Danny Whizzbang, Santini, Elegant Escape, Thistlecrack and Native River. I had geared myself up for a watching brief but Hold The Note is third favourite and looking a wee bit friendless in the teatime market so I plan to keep an eye on it through the evening to see if that changes because it is arguably entitled to win. I’m high with its rating but so are RPRs and he represents the Imperial Aura festival form. Next Destination has something to prove but not as much as the others.
Nwb 1.15 - Kapcorse is overnight favourite but I can let it go after two years off. The chances are if it’s really any good it will be campaigning for a bigger race somewhere down the line. The ones I like are Rocky’s Treasure, Highest Sun, Champagne Court, The Bay Birch and Orchardstown Cross. Dingle is doing better for the trainer than Griffiths and Champagne Court has a few disappointments to put behind him so I’m letting that one go. Rocky’s Treasure presumably had some kind of problem last season and fell too early last time to know if he’s back in form but the stable certainly is in form and his form of two seasons ago gives him a serious shout. He was four lengths second to Santini at levels in the John Francome, won a G2 by 17 lengths at Doncaster and two runs later was 2/1f for the Grimthorpe off 149. If he’d been up to winning an average renewal of that race he could have been expected to go up to 156 so he really is potentially well in here. Nothing much went right for Highest Sun on his reappearance yet he hit a mark very close to last season’s best so he can be expected to improve a good bit. The Bay Birch has a similar profile to previous winner O’Maonlai in that he’s well in on older form but he’s been handicapped to win decent races for long enough and has failed. He went up to a peak OR of 152 in October ’19 for winning a decent Saturday race at Chepstow but hasn’t been near that since. On the few occasions I’ve backed him he seemed not to enjoy being crowded and went better once taken wide. He can’t afford to do that in a field this size and probably can’t afford to try and make the pace as he won’t get an easy lead. JP McManus’s four runners all carry Peter O’Sullevan’s colours so that chances are he wants to win it. His best chance on my figures is Brelan D’As (white cap, as per JP’s normal first colours) but he’s vulnerable if Rocky’s Treasure and/or Highest Sun fulfil my hopes for them. They will be my two against the field with Brelan D’As to cover them.
Nwb 1.50 - I don’t have any strong views on this race. The overnight favourite Tea Clipper is maybe on the steepest curve but he’ll need to be. The three against the field for me are Hang In There (11/1, blue), Howling Milan (14/1, blue in places) and Lord Lamington (40/1, weak). Hang In There went up to 145 for winning the Supreme Trial race last November. He was then running a good race behind Shishkin when tipping up two out in the Sidney Banks. He wasn’t seen again until this season and has two poor runs to forgive but the market strength this evening suggests better is expected. Howling Milan reverts to hurdles having failed to cut it over fences but was three lengths clear and going strongly here in December when falling at the last off 125. The slight worry is that he disappointed in this race before then so maybe they’re targeting the next meeting. That said, he’s 4lbs lower now than in this race last year. Last time, Lord Lamington’s jockey appeared to deliberately drop the horse out just when it looked likely to mount a challenge and is probably a lot better than we saw. However, the trainer said this week he is “definitely on too high a mark” so that probably explains the market weakness. I’m going to let him go.
Nwb 2.25 - I took 3/1 Marie’s Rock (now 7/4 tops) when the entries were released on Monday after reading on the forum that she’s seen as having similar potential to last year’s winner Epatante at the same stage. I suspect Epatante exceeded those expectations but there’s still plenty to like about Marie’s Rock. She was Hendo’s ‘one’ for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the festival but had to miss it. She would probably have run Concertista close and earned a mark in the mid-high 140s and can be expected to find another 10lbs this season. Epatante had last year’s field strung out like washing so Marie’s Rock – rated 4lbs higher now than Epatante was that day – only has to be in the same ball park to win. The other one I like is Millers Bank. He was on a steep curve last season but disappointed on his return. He’s since had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. As a second-season novice he can reasonably be expected to improve again so I’ll be backing him both at the 33/1 (or maybe better in the morning) and in the market without Marie’s Rock.
Nwb 3.35 - It’s good to see this race going back up in value after some time in decline. Marracudja set off prominently last time, making me think it was trying (well backed on the day) but the eventual principals came from well back, suggesting they went over-fast up front. This is a lesser race and he could do it this time. Zanza showed big improvement last time, as you’d want from a second-season novice, so it remains to be seen how much more he can improve. I wouldn’t want to look past these two for the potential winner. At 18/1 and 4/1 respectively I can back both.
Nwc 2.05 - This should be a lap of honour for Epatante.
Nwc 3.15 - I thought Whatmore got a dreadful ride (RJ, ’nuff said) last time against Regal Encore but I went high with the form anyway so I reckon he’s a good bit better than we saw that day. The Butcher Said is entitled to keep improving, being a novice, I wouldn’t want to look past these two. They’re two of the front three in the betting, though, so I’ll have to have a think about having a bet.
It's a very heavy day's punting in terms of aggregate output and I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything. If I have a good day it could be a very good day. A Bad Day at Black Rock and neighbourhood cats would be well advised to give me a wide berth.
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