Yards come in and out of form mysteriously quickly when you're around Arkers lol
Yards come in and out of form mysteriously quickly when you're around Arkers lol
Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins
Twitter: @Quevega
Here we go -laptop out -generous drink poured.
My story starts last Breeders Cup night at around 7 o clock-I'm getting ready to go out the door to get the Saturday night takeaway when a last second glance at my betfair screen reveals someone is looking to have a few quid on the Henry de Bromhead trained McDonagh ridden Withnail at Dundalk.I instantly decide this is significant and back him each way on the tote and win and place on betfair.I average better then 40/1 and he hits the front so late my lay off trades aren't matched.I follow up with a place lay of Mastercraftsman (luckiest bet of alltime) and before I know it the winning bets are gushing.This continues well beyond Cheltenham,confidence is sky high and the bankroll is well able to withstand a serious hit.
My game plan is based on a high turnover with relatively low profit margin -betting mainly on betfair. I hit a high of over 40,000 commission points on betfair(trying to sustain it is like a fulltime job).Late night American racing on a Friday and Saturday night is a speciality.
When things are oing well I do the sensible thing -look after various jobs that need doing around the house,generous Christmas presents,put something aside for daughters education and make a fairly decent investment in Irish Stock Exchange-all the time making sure I have enough to survive a couple of bad weeks.
Of course there were bad days -Irish 2000 Guineas Day stands out-possibly the nicest day of the year but I lost so much I had to go to bed at 430 in the afternoon.I have also learned to avoid all weather maidens.
Anyway -last week I was into Week 50 and from Tuesday to Friday I had some very sensible bets -not big bets but ones that were sensible and nicely profitable.I have always been a believer that as a gambler the day will arrive that can wipe you out-for whatever reason you might be unlucky,tired or just destined to lose.That day for me was last Saturday.In the space of half an hour I had done in a months wages laying Clowance for a place and Araucaria.I had the resources to soak up the pain but my blood was up and I chased like mad.All I can say is the resources are now shattered and my confidence is non existent.Still going to Cheltenham for the Open meeting but instead of going allout it will be very defensive.
You had some run though and got carried out on your shield. The problem I can see for you is that you will miss being in the game. High turnover low margin is very much my aim and I find it hard to sit out.
I'm going the opposite way, Luke - I'm convinced the only way to make it pay is to narrow the scope and specialize (currently concentrating on low-level Irish 7f-12f handicaps). I'm convinced if you can know horses running at that sort of level as well as we know the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Workforce etc. there must be an edge to be had.
As far as I can see the only way of making the high turnover approach pay is either playing in-running (with the aid of SIS/TurfTV or on-track) or having such a thorough knowledge of the formbook/figures that it virtually has to be a full-time occupation.
In my mind gambling is like heavyweight boxing -the knockout punch is the one you don't see coming.All week I am asking myself -wtf-I just cant figure it out.About 10 days ago I was congratulating myself for surviving the flat season and looking forward to the most exciting time of year.
There will be an edge at the lower levels but that's countered by the more unpredictable nature of the horses involved and of course in some case the trainers and jockeys.
Playing in the most predictable or the most unpredictable races are IMO the races to focus on - the former as it's all layed out in black and white in front of you and the latter primarily as you'll go looking for a factor that matters that few others consider and most bookmakers will no doubt have failed to factor into their pricing.
Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins
Twitter: @Quevega
Pretty much the same kind of story as my own Luke. From Galway/Goodwood 2009 until January 2010 i didnt have a losing week. Made some serious dough. Bought myself a car, paid off all college debts, bought new computer and laptop for work, basically bought everything i couldnt afford at college, had a first holiday in years, and saved some nice money. Calmed down on the punting front coming up to cheltenham, punted away quietly, then had a real good day at Fairyhouse, massive punt and biggest win of the year, 33s into 6s. Thought, "Nice one, were back ready to go again coming into the flat season", made money at Punchestown, and then had a terrible run all summer until Goodwood and Galway week again, where i literally could hardly go wrong, everything we punted won, was a short head away from landing 40k in a 100ew double. Even still, very profitable week, and i thought, finally they are coming good again....then they started getting chinned, getting blocked, breaking down, you name it. A shocker of a run.
I feel that when its going bad it affects my judgement, how i punt, how much i punt, and what i punt on. Make some poor decisions. So by taking a sabatical is my way of hopefully starting afresh in a month or two, or if im not feeling it then, whenever, if ever.
I dont know how il feel if im givin serious word on a horse, or if i see a standout bet that im very tempted to have a go at. I have to stay completely out of the game or not at all. If all of a sudden the horses start clicking again il be sickened, i could join back in and they go cold again...so its definately something i know is going to frustrate. Think il use this as a sort of Diary, if only to get some wisdom from Gearoid....
"Sometimes a horse is so far behind in a race, it actually thinks its leading...." Junior Soprano
Originally Posted by trackside528
Trackside -for years I would have agreed with you-the smaller the number of bets the better but Betfair has changed that(in theory).I keep telling myself to write out a list of strengths and weaknesses.I would say I have my best chance of winning at the top class Irish meetings where there is good liquidity and a decent in running market.
I also want to do an expectation calendar and rate my chances of winning on any particular day-from nearly 30 years of gambling (missspent youth) I can tell you that I am absolutely deadly on Irish Derby Day but the reverse side of the coin would probably be Midlands National Day at Uttoxeter -a day that has been painful for me so many times.
My love of late night American racing at weekends revolves around the unpredictability of low grade horses-which is fantastic when you combine it with a crowd arriving home from the pub.The shrewd money can arrive very very late and avoiding it is the key to survival but you have to be prepared to accept getting hit occasionally.
Del Boy - If you are telling me you did not have a losing week from Goodwood/Galway 2009 until January than I will bet 1/66 you do not keep betting records.
Gearoid-as for missing being out of the game you can be sure of it.The average week I can take or leave what happens between Monday and Friday afternoon but I do like Wolverhampton and Dundalk on a Friday night -the perfect way to kickstart a weekend.
Good points - if you place exclusively on Betfair there is some immense value to be had. Over here Betfair is king pretty much and they are the line - all bookmakers as a rule(rightly or wrongly) won't lay a substantial better over the "lay" price on Betfair.
It's easy to imagine that there's someone connected to X yard in the UK who's told someone else that it's half fit or coming back from a very serious leg injury, isn't sparkling at home etc. but with Betfair's US markets in my experience that seems to be far less true. I generally don't back anything on racing shorter than 4/1 or 9/2 unless I think it's massively the wrong price as it doesn't suit the way in which I bet but with the US markets on Betfair (at least it was true last time I looked at them properly a year or so back) there were so many horses that were maybe 8/11 on the tote and 5/4 or 11/8 on Betfair - not all will be value but I'd rather be with the huge pools that the US tracks have than the £2,000 or so that's matched on Betfair.
Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins
Twitter: @Quevega
Luke - You mention taking money out of your pot to do grown up stuff. I think it is normally a relief and a feel good factor but it causes two problems. The back of your minds asks the question, I wonder how much more I could have won with amount x in play. You hope that a bad run is not around the corner because you have the game by the balls but you have the confidence but not the pot. You start to bet to get back to amount x because thats where you think you deserve to be. I think it is vital to take out money from your tank only when you have too because it will always have a negative effect on your mind.
Can I just pop into what's a very interesting insight from several people here, and ask if you spreadsheet your own results, in the same way that you'd be Excelling trainers, jockeys and horses' strike rates? For example, would you find that you hit a seasonal high, just like some trainers, followed by a rapid slump or just a lengthy flatline, followed by another high at a particular meeting?
Are you betting across all types of racing and, if so, what are you doing best and worst at? I'd have thought it almost mandatory to swerve 2 y.o. debuts, for example, all Novice hurdles, and Beginners' Chases, but then, I know nothing at all about betting.
If you found out that your biggest run comes during the period coming up to a major meeting, includes some great hits at that meeting, but is pretty crap directly afterwards (maybe a case of overreaching?), then would that pattern help to steady your nerves? You could say, nope, not going near anything for three weeks after the Paddy Power, or Chester's or Donny's meetings - wherever you saw your nasty blips on the screen. Then crank up a gear for the time/s of year when you're really hitting 'em for six.
Dunno what I'm talking about, as you will know - but just wondered how many of you fairly much, if not totally, professional punters were analyzing your skills versus success/failure patterns? And if you're not, would it help you if you did?
Power is good. Control is better. (Lenin)
It depends on the punter Krizon. I only break mine down to sport type and bookmaker. I take it personally with certain bookmakers and invariby do better with them than others that i just pick off for top price. Some members on here breakdown race types etc but I dont see the point. I know which races punters have an advantage and dont think my sample of bets being broken down will tell me anything different from a randon set of results.
I keep the records Ger, no bull. Some weeks i made literally a score or a ton, other weeks more, but the important point was i was making money. Dundalk on a Friday night was leathal for a large part of this, some people on here will back this up, if Hezz or Jamie are posting they will agree that there was hardly a night at fundalk that we didnt make a killing. This year has been very different. Believe it or not, its a fact. Looking through it some weeks had no horses bet, some small football, Gaa.
"Sometimes a horse is so far behind in a race, it actually thinks its leading...." Junior Soprano
Spreadsheeted everything Kri - date, sport, bet description, stake, ew terms, returns, bookmaker, notes and who's told me it if it's not my own work.
Betting across all types of racing - flat and jumps, Group 1's down to sellers in the UK and Ireland primarily with the odd bet in France.
I think a pattern such as the time of year you do well is useless unless you know the reason why you do well - if it's due to a ground change and a sudden flurry of rain then that might not come the following year and there's no guarantee there'll be the same conditions or the same meetings the following year.
FWIW I seem to do well in certain races - bumpers (in Ireland in particular), low grade handicaps and handicap hurdles are where I seem to do well, primarily due to being able to identify over priced horses in the 10/1-40/1 category or those at huge prices who are likely to run much better than their odds suggest.
I think ill-discipline is the downfall of most punters (myself included) - as a friend of mine said "a good bet is a good bet whether you're winning £1,000 on the day or losing £1,000 on the day" though I'd say the golden rule should always be never to chase losses.
Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins
Twitter: @Quevega
I dont break it down into race type or jockey or anything so sophisticated. Just to what was staked on a day and the return on each sport.I havent the time or the patience for anything more.
Mentally though i do try to stick to the better quality racing, il rarely try to work out a seller or something to have a punt on unless i "know" something, which sometimes works and more often doesnt when they are at that level.
"Sometimes a horse is so far behind in a race, it actually thinks its leading...." Junior Soprano
Chasing is the killer for me. I often think i should pick out what i think is the strongest bet of the day and nail it. Instead i will have a good go at it, then il have some other bets on other things i like, maybe a few combination bets across them all, and at the end of the day i could have staked on 5 or 6 bets, only my strongest one coming in, with the most of the profits frittered away on the others.
Flip side of this is that if i plough into my NAP, it loses, then i sit and suffer even more if one of my other fancies goes in."That would have got me out"
"Sometimes a horse is so far behind in a race, it actually thinks its leading...." Junior Soprano
I've been keeping records since 1991 and I've found that whereas there are certain meetings that are bad for me and I largely ignore nowadays - the July meeting and Aintree in April for example - I've had years when I've been massively down and finished like a train for a profit - and years where the opposite has happened.
One of the best gambling books I've read was Mark Coton's 100 hints for Better Betting. One of those hints was never get too emotionally high on a winner or too low on a loser. This was a hint I didn't agree with at the time I read the book but it may be the best one. When New Approach won the Derby my bankroll reached it's all-time high and I was truly content with life for the first time since I was about 13. For ten days I was on cloud nine - and I was even pleasant to customers at work
Then I went for a touch in the Queen Anne with Darjina and Finsceal Beo and even though that loss barely made a dent I was so crestfallen after being on such a high that I blew a large chunk of my betting stack during that horrible Royal meeting. I wanted that high back. The lesson learnt was basically never think you have the game cracked, and try and stay on an even keel.
If you keep records it's important to analyse what kind of races you do well in and also what price range as well. I very rarely manage to find big price winner in Group races so if I fancy something at 10s plus in a race like that I will only back it to place.
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