BANK ON BLEU FOR A FRESH APPROACH
My Guide to the Boylesports Gold Cup 2007
Runners:
KNOWHERE
Having a great season so far putting up great performances to place in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and finish 5th in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. Drop back in trip likely to suit him better today and back on ideal conditions that saw him collect here in October. 10lb higher than when recording that neck success and still 3lb higher than when he was 3rd in the Paddy Power. Tougher task under top weight here but likely to give his running and has place claims again.
TAMARINBLEU
Has always gone well fresh and has improved since being stepped up in trip. Taking advantage of a very fair mark of 140 at the end of last season he recorded an impressive 5L victory in a competitive chase at Sandown. Reportedly done very well over the summer and was a creditable 6th to Exotic Dancer in last season’s Paddy Power Chase beaten little over 10L. Capable of running very well first time out and has rarely put in a bad showing here. One of the more likely candidates and is overpriced at 20/1.
FAASEL
Has had the tendency to hang right in his races but ran a big race on his comeback over hurdles when making Black Jack Ketchum pull out all the stops in a 3m Grade 2 Hurdle. Very versatile in terms of trip and showed a good level of form last season in his novice chasing year. His 6th in the Arkle reads very well given the way he was staying on late and he is an interesting runner off what may prove a fair chasing mark.
IL DUCE
Ran a super race when 2nd to L’antartique in the Paddy Power and only risen 5lb as a result of that creditable run. 13lb higher than his latest winning chase mark and on a career high mark he will need to improve to figure here but has a good record here and likely to be on the premises.
KNIGHT LEGEND
Improving chaser who has been running well in leading Irish Chases. 2nd to Mossbank off a 1lb higher mark last time he is an interesting candidate here given how well he stays. However often prone to numerous jumping errors and record in big fields also has to be brought into question. Has been kept busy lately and whilst he would be interesting if he could put in a good round of jumping he made a couple of howlers on his last run here and you couldn’t take his jumping with much confidence.
YES SIR
Paying the price for his own consistency and slowly coming down the weights having reached a mark of 153. 7lb lower now he is 4lb lower than when a creditable 7th in the Galway Plate. Disappointing on his reappearance but more than capable of winning a big handicap at some stage. Likely to need a bit more relief from the handicapper however and may just find this a bit much for him.
LE VOLFONI
2lb higher than when he was a creditable 4th in the Racing Post Plate (Formally the Mildmay of Fleet) at the Festival and recent runs over hurdles suggest connections feel he could still be competitive off this mark in a handicap chase. Would ideally be suited by slower ground here but he certainly gives the impression that he will bag a decent prize this season. I feel that its likely to come over an easy 3m rather than 2m 5f and I will be looking for a good run here before perhaps spotting him for something like the Racing Post Chase in February. Could go well at big odds.
NEW ALCO
Ran out an impressive winner at Carlisle at the start of the season but was never able to get competitive in the Hennessy when making a couple of early jumping errors. Chances are a return to a stiffer track will suit but yet to totally prove he is as good as his current handicap mark and may be suited by further. No surprise if he put in a good show but there will be more ideal races for him this season after Christmas.
NEW LITTLE BRIC
Heavily backed on his return at Ascot when 4th to Howle Hill and stayed on strongly late on after a bad error 2 down looked to have given him no chance. Disappointing in last season’s Jewson Chase connections have made it very clear they hold him in high regard and feel he could be a smart chaser going places. Return to a stiffer trip will clearly suit here today and 1lb rise for that creditable reappearance run looks an accurate judgement. The yard can do very little wrong at present and big Saturday handicaps just seem to be falling nicely into connections laps. Very much on the shortlist here and whilst his jumping is questionable at times he does look a well handicapped chaser returning to a trip that he will really relish.
ROMAN ARK
Won well on favoured soft ground at Haydock last time but 7lb rise coming into a far competitive race may just find him out here. Well beaten here at the Festival and hard to see him getting competitive on ground that maybe a bit lively for him this afternoon.
IDOLE FIRST
Had several of these well behind him when winning the Racing Post Plate at the Festival and its fair to say he was rather disappointing when pulling up in the Paddy Power Chase here on his seasonal comeback. Has generally gone well fresh in the past so that run is a slight worry but if back on song he would have to go down a leading player. Only 7lb higher than when running the field ragged in March and a reproduction of that form would see him go very close. A bit of rain would have enhanced his chances but can’t be totally dismissed in an open looking contest.
MAGIC SKY
One time exciting French Import of Paul Nicholls’ but failed to cut the heights expected and was sold in a seller 2 season’s ago. Has served new connections very well and steadily improving all the time. Has been unlucky in some regards recently and probably would have won a competitive race at Ascot but for a final fence error. Was going nicely until getting in close 3 out at Newbury last time on testing ground and whilst he was no match for the “back to form” Saintsaire he gives the impression he could pop up in a big handicap someday. Would have definitely gone close off a 4lb lower mark here in October but for being severely hampered at a crucial stage and then stayed on under tender handling after the last. That run may have gone unnoticed by many but at 33/1 he looks very much overpriced. His jumping does not totally enthuse but he will probably be better suited to this course and I could see him running a big race this afternoon. He is not out of this.
BLACK HILLS
Good to see him bounce back from the doldrums last time with a fine performance at Kempton but 5lb higher now and was well outclassed in the Paddy Power earlier in the season. Hard to see him being good enough at this level and is best watched in what looks a really competitive chase.
PALARSHAN
Really good handicap chaser who stays on well in his races and always seems to go well here. Returned after a long break to run a creditable 2nd in the Racing Post Plate last season and was once again placed in the Paddy Power making good late headway having been hampered by the ill fated fall of Granit Jack at the second last. 2lb higher today which means he is racing off a higher mark than his highest winning mark but loves it around here and stays on strongly where it matters. Has often looked as if 3m may suit better but likely to be doing his best work late on and no surprise to see him fill a place once again.
COPSALE LAD
Was nibbled at big odds for the Paddy Power but was never really tarvelling after hitting the 2nd last. Caught the eye over hurdles last time at Newbury and the handicapper has been fair on him dropping him 3lb. Interesting to see connections apply blinkers to try and help him travel better but he just gives the impression he doesn’t possess enough stamina to get up the hill here. I would expect to see him run his race and no surprise if he won a fair 2m 4f handicap over fences back on a flatter track shortly. Will appreciate the drying ground.
ABRAGANTE
A very false horse to watch in his races that he travels really well until finding precious little for pressure and whilst he was mightily impressive winning this season’s Badger Beer chase it must be said that he did only beat an old course specialist and a bunch of out of form chasers. Failed to get home over 3m 3f in testing ground in the Hennessy and whilst he was still going well 3 out he is a horse that likes to be carried into his races. Not convinced he will fancy a battle up the hill here and he would be the one I would want to lay in running if he trades under 3/1 at any point. Mark of 135 still leaves you to think he will win a decent handicap somewhere but I’m not convinced McCoy is his sort of jockey and I’m keen to oppose him here.
PATMAN DU CHARMIL
No surprise if his presence in the race isn’t to set a good gallop for stablemate Knowhere but was battling back late in the Paddy Power and ran a huge race in 5th having been considered the rank outsider. Form of his 3rd to Joe Lively and Ice Tea starting to look seriously smart and has been left alone by the handicapper whilst those in front of him here in November have all been raised a few pounds. A fantastic jumper who has the speed to kick on early here and I have a sneaky feeling he may be harder to pass this afternoon than he was in November. I would not be surprised to see him go very close.
Summary:
A seriously open Boylesports Gold Cup where the Paddy Power form is laid down by Il Duce, Knowhere, Palarshan and Patman Du Charmil. Its hard not to see several on these horses playing their cards again and this looks far more open than the November race.
There are 4 or 5 that really catch my eye here and most notably it would be no surprise to see New Little Bric go very close having run a good race on his comeback at Ascot. He made a bad error 2 out at Ascot and that looked to have put pay to his chance. He was however staying on strongly at the finish and looked to be finishing with a good bit left in the tank. This stiffer test will be ideal for him and if he can keep his jumping together he should be there abouts.
Of the 4 from the Paddy Power Gold Cup the one I like most is Patman Du Charmil and whilst many feel he was at an advantage of being in front of the mess at the 2nd last he had set a good gallop with Crozan and done very well to stay on late and hold 5th position. He is well weighted with the 3 others today and I would expect to see him go close once more.
At bigger odds I really like Magic Sky and he is the value bet in the contest for me. He was running away when severely hampered here in October and has since run a couple of creditable efforts including a good 2nd to Hoo La Baloo when he was very unlucky not to collect. The ground wasn’t ideal for him at Newbury last time and whilst many feel his stamina needs to be proven I really feel he would have been in the mix over this trip in October but for meeting interference. At 33/1 there is value to be had.
The two to fight out the finish for me however are Faasel and TAMARINBLEU. The former ran a super race back over hurdles behind Black Jack Ketchum at Wetherby and his proven stamina will put him in good stead here. He made very good late headway in the Arkle and was far from disgraced. He looked just off top class in his novice chase season and whilst 150 is a fair assessment by the handicapper I have a sneaky feeling this horse has the ability to make up into a leading Ryanair challenger this season. He is improving all the while and to me looks good each way value at 12/1.
However I find it hard to get away from TAMARINBLEU who always seems to give a good account of himself around here and goes very well fresh. He gave the talented Accordion Etoile the slip around here two years ago only to be claimed on the line and last season we saw him run a big race when nailing Crozan in a good finish in a competitive Ascot contest. Afterwards he showed he got 3m staying on to win fair Perth handicap and he was running away from 4 out suggesting he had more in the locker. Up 10lb as a result but only a 7yo and clearly capable of improvement despite having plenty of miles on the clock. He has a good turn of foot and with his added stamina and ability to go well fresh I find it hard not to see him playing a hand in the finish today. He loves it around Cheltenham and was a creditable 6th in last seasons Paddy Power off only 3lb lower. Dennis O ‘ Regan getting plenty of chances to prove himself and I can see him getting a big tune out of him today. He gets my vote from Faasel and New Little Bric who could both be ahead of the handicapper. Magic Sky and Patman Du Charmil are value at longer odds whilst Palarshan and Idole First should also be thereabouts.
Advised Bets
2pts Win & 4pts Place TAMARINBLEU @ 23 & 4.4
0.75pts Win & 1.25pts Place Faasel @ 14.5 & 3.85
1pt Win @ 2pts Place New Little Bric @ 5.6 & 2.10
0.5pts Ew Magic Sky @ 55 @ 8.6
0.5pts Ew Patman Du Charmil @ 23 & 5.0
(Total Points Staked, 13pts)
10p C.T.C, Tamarinbleu, Faasel, New Little Bric, Magic Sky, Patman Du Charmil & Palarshan = £12.00
50p C.F.C, Tamarinbleu, Faasel, New Little Bric, Magic Sky, Patman Du Charmil & Palarshan = £15.00
Good Luck
Chris
Reply With Quote
Blooming heck, Chris. That is some write up. Well done and good luck with your selections.
