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Thread: Boylesports Gold Cup

  1. #1
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    I have been having a bit of a study of this race. The top weights have come out, leaving Knowhere on 11-12. The betting is below:

    New Little Bric (11/2) , Abragante (7) , Il Duce (8) , Palarshan (10) , New Alco (11) , Knowhere (12) , Howle Hill (16) , Roman Ark (16) , Copsale Lad (20) , Faasel (20) , Idole First (20) , Knight Legend (20) , Le Volfoni (20) , Tamarinbleu (20) , Patman De Charmil (25) , Private Be (25) , Vodka Bleu (25) , Black Hills (33) , Magic Sky (33) , Tikram (33) - Others 50 or more

    This is surely a must punt race. I am not having New Little Bric at all. I think he won a couple of sh1t novice chases last season. He is a potential improver, but he would be at around 12/1 if he had a different trainer.

    Palarshan is the one for me. There is not too much wrong with this horse. He would have won if he hadn't been hampered the last day, loves Cheltenham and the ground shouldn't be too bad.

    I have had a little bit of the 10/1 with Coral and expect him to start a lot shorter.
    Welsh and Proud.

  2. #2
    Senior Member sunybay's Avatar
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    my short list is:

    New Little Bric
    Idole First
    Private Be
    Vodka Bleu

  3. #3
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    I also like Idole First and Private Be is an interesting shout.
    Welsh and Proud.

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    I agree with BTB if Granit Jack had stood up the last day Palarshan would have finished second at worst and possibly won the race.
    In my opinion he is best when fresh and I don't expect him to improve on his last run.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    Fair point.

    But will he need to?
    Welsh and Proud.

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    Glad that someone else agrees with my thoughts on New Little Bric. I was quite disappointed with New Little Bric last time out to be completely honest, no where near justified why it went off as a short price favourite.

    I quite like the look of Patman Du Charmil as a big price EW option, stays really well and jumps well too.

    To be honest, so far this season, the horses above, have not lived up to expectations so far such as New Alco, Abragante, New Little Bric, etc... Think it could be worth having a bet on a bigger priced horse as an EW alternative.

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    New Alco would be jolly for this if he didnt run in the hennessy. Im prepare to forgive that run.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Drop back to 2m5f won't inconvenience Abragante - especially as he will get the strong pace he needs. I'm convinced he is much better than his OR of 135, and I expect a very big run.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member sunybay's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Will@Dec 11 2007, 03:02 AM
    New Alco would be jolly for this if he didnt run in the hennessy. Im prepare to forgive that run.
    New Alco is running in a 6 pounds higher mark here than in the Hennessy.

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    Knowhere will have his day this time imo.

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    That would be good for our TTF syndicate on FF, as he's in our very best line - currently lying c156th in the comp

    No longer a Palarshan fan Chris? - or is it a question of the ground?
    I haven;t yet put on my 2 x e/w so I'm looking for clues here...
    At the moment these two are my pick against the field

  12. #12
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    Really think Palarshan needs 3m now, and he is a horse that has always been best fresh for my liking. Ground would be a minor worry as well.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    I agree with Bar over Palarshan, he must run a big race.

    I'm not so convinced as some are that he runs his best races when fresh or first time out - he can win, or run well first time out (which not all horses can do) but he is also capable of running big races in the middle of the season as well. He will have had a month inbetween runs which is more than good enough for me.

    I also agree with Chris that Knowhere should run well - whether he can quite win off topweight is another matter, but he should be in the placings again.

    Please, don't be starting that nonsense about Abragante again!!!! Hound.
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

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    Abragante is a fast ground, flat track, produced to lead at the last horse;

    If he has to battle the dummy comes out, He is an in running fantastic lay, how in the world he traded as low as 3.85 in the Hennessy god knows.

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    Senior Member uncle goober's Avatar
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    Palarshan certainly due to win a race of some description as its four and a half years since he did.
    I could be the judge!

    I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

  16. #16
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Knowhere has never won after October
    "The owls are not what they seem"

  17. #17
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    Know chance.
    Welsh and Proud.

  18. #18
    Senior Member rorydelargy's Avatar
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    Palarshan was unlucky in the Paddy Power as he was quite badly hampered at a crucial stage but I fear that was his big chance.
    handsome is as handsome does

  19. #19
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    I could be wrong (I usually am) but I'm under the impression that younger horses are increasingly being brought forward earlier? It might have something to do with training developments, scientific advances, or just good old fashioned pressure from owners to get a return on their investment as quickly as possible. It might have started with Martin Pipe's use of French imports, but in the last 2 seasons alone, we've seen a 5yo win the Coral Cup and Sun Alliance Chase for the first time, and a 6yo win the Champion Chase for only the second time. It might also account for the number of injuries? although again I don't know if that's an illusion I'm under, or whether they are indeed on the increase?

    In handicaps it's potentially even more of a useful perspective, as unexposed younger horses will typically carry lower weights. The Boyle Sports is no different.

    Consider the record of 9yo's plus;

    You have to go back to Fragrant Dawn in 1993 to find the last time one won. In the last 13 years 44 have tried, (meaning they account for 33% of the fields, 1 in 3 etc). Three placed, the remaining 41 finished unplaced. This wouldn't bode well for Tikram, Copsale Lad, Parlashan, Knowhere or Roman Ark at face value?

    Compare this record against that of 6yo's;

    In the last 12 years, I'm counting 16 that have tried from a total of 131 who faced the starter (12%). 3 of them won (Exotic Dancer, Legal Right and Fondmort). It is also quite possible that Our Vic would have joined the list had he not tipped up at the last when seemingly destined to fight out a finish with Monkerhostin. 4 have placed, and 9 finished unplaced. That gives them a win or place strike rate of 43% once you find a candidate. Or put another way they have a ratio of 2 to 1 in terms of the fact that they supply 12% of the runners, and account for 25% of the winners.

    To summarise it starkly, older horses account for nearly 3 times the number of runners that 6yo's do, yet 6yo's generate 3 times the number of winners

    The problem is that none of the current bunch particularly appeal.

    Le Volfoni, New Alco, New Little Bric, Faasel and Abragante

    I suppose that by virtue of not having completed the Hennessey New Alco would be my preferred option at this early stage, but recent placed form on the latest outing seems to be common to majority of winners. Sir OJ defied it, but before him you need to go back some 25 years to Observe, to find the last horse to break that hoodoo, and unfortunately a strict application of that trend would wipe out all the 6yo's.

    I'm half considerign a 7yo option in Howle Hill, but haven't decided yet
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    Tamarinbleu's first run of the season? Yes please.

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