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Thread: Free Lay Courtesy Of Paddy Power

  1. #1
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    Paddy Power are offering your money back if your horse finishes 2nd to Ring The Boss...so they obviously think..for whatever reason ...that the fav is stuffed.

    A nice free lay on the favourite then..thanks Paddy

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    Senior Member rorydelargy's Avatar
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    They think nothing of the sort ~ your logic can be very flawed at times EC1.
    handsome is as handsome does

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    this one won, lots have been beaten in the past

    why is the reasoning flawed Rory?

    at the Cheltenham festival they had a field day with these, on the EBA board at that time everyone was laying them

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    They always do that EC1 when there is a VERY HOT FAV which they agree will win - to encourage people to have a bet on something else! It limits their liability on the favourite to a small extent by balancing the book

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    I read it quite differently Headstrong

    They view the fav as weak, therefore the "stakes returned" are minimal...basically a nice bit of PR which costs then little.

    Rory may have another view.

    I will say though, these generally lose...obviously..because todays won I'll probably be deemed a donut.

    just trying to help..probably wasting my time posting tbh.

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    Senior Member rorydelargy's Avatar
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    You're so effing precious aren't you EC1? If anyone disagrees with you, it's not because you're talking rubbish, it's that we're (who the hell "we" are is beyond me ~ it's a bunch of relative strangers on a forum) out to get you.

    Paddy Power deserve very little respect as shrewdies outside of Ireland. Their offers are at least as much driven by their Marketing department as they are by anyone with a trading hat on. If they wanted to get the favourite, then they would offer enhanced odds on it and therefore get more of it in the book. Remember that their offers are useless to them if they never have to pay out.
    handsome is as handsome does

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    Paddy Power do specials like this every day of the week -its what they are all about -being seen to give a little bit back to the ordinary punter.Paddy Power are great for specials like this and really good customer service while very rarely offering best price on any individual horse.

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    You're so effing precious aren't you EC1?

    why...because I asked you to explain?

    I never said your answer was flawed..just asked you one question...yet I'm precious shrug::

    sorry for asking you to explain

    well..you answered...and I don't buy it

    sorry for disagreeing



    it just looks like simple logic to me...you are a bookie..you pick a fav that you think is vulnerable...then get punters to beton other horses in the race with an offer of their money back..if 2nd to the dodgy fav

    result

    you not only take money on a losing fav...you also empty the pockets of more punters that fancy one against it who think that getting their money back is a bonus...when in fact it ain't if you are good at picking the losing fav often enough.

    now if thats flawed then fair enough



    I could just sit here and read the board...and post f@ck all Rory...because when I do get a response like yours...with no explanation as to why my idea is flawed...it f@cks me off...yes...sorry about that.

    it's very easy to say...ooh thats flawed...but I ain't got a bleedin clue why...just thought I'd be negative.


    you got a decent response to a post there ...at the top of this thread...that you didn't deserve...then have the f@ckin cheek to come back on calling me names???


    be prepared to back up your responses at least Rory

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    EC1 -as i said Powers do this type of special every day of the week on racing and plenty of other sports.They give a little bit back to the ordinary punter-this approach is so successful that the Power daily special is always offered by Boylesports.

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    I understand that Luke

    the choice of fav though means that what looks a good deal for the punter can work for the bookie..when the fav fails to win....which means they don't actually have to refund anything

    at one time there was another couple of bookies doing a similar thing...on EBA forum we used follow the fav's...they rarely won.

    Might be worth monitoring...do they do a horse race everyday?

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    Their offers like this tend to be Saturdays/big meetings
    The favourites are usually evens or odds on - and with good reason.

    I'm sure it's just a ruse to try to get people to bet against the favourite, people like me who don't back short priced horses so would normally / otherwise leave the race alone - like myself!
    Works with me so must be a good ruse! I backed Wingman today because of this offer

    It's a way of getting in some money on the race to hedge against the massive payout they face when such a short priced fav wins. Well that's my take on it and it makes sense to me

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    but Headstrong...if the fav wins...they end up giving money back to some punters when their horse finishes 2nd to it....so are not really benefitting

    so the obvious ploy is to pick a fav they think won't win...then they don't refund any money...and they take all the money on the fav

    it's quite interesting how people read these type of offers...it looks good in their advert...but it's a winner for the bookie when the fav loses as it looks like he is giving some kind of bonus...which he isn't if the races picked have a losing fav.

    i always view these races as the bookie passing on his opinion of a bad fav.

    lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Harbinger's Avatar
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    lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.
    Sounds like a plan. They'd probably be happy to run it as a loss leader, but worth finding out over the course of a few weeks.

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    Headstrong -you can apply whatever logic you like but its just Powers doing what they do best.At the recent Cheltenham meeting they refunded all bets on fallers-they refunded bets on Dont Push It when he was scratched.Powers have been doing this since they started trading in 1988.

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    Originally posted by EC1@Dec 8 2007, 11:31 PM

    lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.
    I'm all for monitoring the offers, good plan [so long as someone else is doing it!]

    I remarked at the time how much PP had had to pay out on fallers at the Paddy Power meeting - massive sums esp on Granit Jack

  16. #16
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In my opinion, this firm cheated me out of a winning bet in May so I no longer have anything to do with them. I got a 2008 diary from them the other day - they couldn't even get my address right FFS - and it went straight in the bin.

    I also found their customer services people beyond rude.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #17
    Senior Member rorydelargy's Avatar
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    I've a better idea ~ several members of the forum either work or have worked as odds compilers and will have an idea whether such an offer represents a desire to lay the jolly or simply a PR ploy.

    I'm stunned by the logic you use. If you don't like a short priced horse, why would you encourage punters to bet against it? The bookie doesn't have a problem with giving a minority of losing punters a free spin because, as losing punters, they're enormously likely to simply give the money back in extra bets. Similarly, without taking a view, said bookie knows that if the jolly is a real 6/4 chance and there are 15 other runners, then there is a 40% chance of having a money back offer they can promote, but only an average of 6-7% of the punters who qualify for that bonus see any return, and the majority of those will squander that meagre reward, so the bookie gets maximum publicity for minimal return.

    This offer tends to apply to a certain type of race ~ one where the favourite is not a working man's price but no certainty and there is no clear choice against it. That way punters will be convinced to bet money they may otherwise have kept in their pockets but will tend to bet over a wide selection of runners, virtually guaranteeing a decent profit with the possibility of a PR opportunity thrown in.

    Paddy Power are brilliant at promoting themselves in such a way, but to credit them with the intelligence to take a view in such a way is laughable. The only maths they do is to maximise the chance of promoting these money back specials while managing to give back as little as possible. That's good marketing.

    BTW ~ this isn't just random opinion and as someone who works in a trading environment and who previously did the same in a marketing capacity for Ladbrokes, I can assure you it's simple fact.

    My comment in my first post are based on my observations over some time and not just on this thread or this forum. You are very precious about your opinions which are often left field and sometimes of some interest, but often simply flawed. When you get no response or a negative response you always take it as if it's a personal affront to you (note the clique thread). Newsflash ~ it's not all about you and if you weren't so defensive then you might garner a little bit more support, not least from me.
    handsome is as handsome does

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    oh dear Rory

    haven't you spent a lot of time there telling me how to behave?

    thanks for the free analysis of my persona...appreciate it :brows:

    I like your response to the question though...sort of...I could just say your thinking is flawed too ...but I'm not that arrogant..you might be right...whereas you just KNOW that I'm wrong...possibly a persona flaw in your good self?

    thanks for the posting anyway...i'll be suitably well behaved in future

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    I think Rory is on the money....


    (NOne of it is personal EC old chap)

  20. #20
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Somehow managed to miss this thread before.

    Rory is right - in fact EC1, I'd say that the trading department possibly have very little say in such marketing stunts.

    The way it tends to work is the marketing department want to increase turnover on an event (a televised large field handicap hurdle with a short priced favourite is absolutely ideal as not many armchair punters will be that keen to get involved as the fav is so short priced) so they think up a gimmicky offer to go alongside it. The marketing departments often have their own budgets so any losses will come out of the marketing budget rather than the trading one ergo the trading desk won't play a massive part in deciding the offer ~ they will be told about it and asked for any large objections but aren't likely to have devised the idea or implemented it.

    As Rory says, it's all a gimmick to try to encourage the weekend armchair, tenner-a-time punters to have a bet on every televised race with them.
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

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