Ascot
12.45
A competitive handicap hurdle where Potts Of Magic will appeal to a few having won here last season off only a 2lb lower mark. There is every chance he has found the ground too quick for him on recent starts but I would have personally liked to have seen him in better form and is a horse I’m keen to take on. Tora Bora was in front of Potts Of Magic on their last meeting at Aintree and Brendan Powell’s horse stayed on in good style off the last without every being a serious danger to the winner. Clearly going in the right direction he is 20lb lower over the smaller obstacles and with the yard in serious form you have to respect him. However a couple here catch the eye and at big prices I wouldn’t write off Turtle Soup each way who has found himself drop to a mark of 125 having run off 145 around two years ago. His last win was off a 10lb higher mark and whilst it was some three years ago there was some encouragement to be taken from the way he stayed on at Kempton last time when a remote 4th behind a very smart prospect of Nicky Henderson’s. A lb lower now the step up to 3m 1f looks sure to suit him and with his preferred underfoot conditions present there could be a case made for him and with a talented 5lb claimer taking more weight off his back he shouldn’t be ruled out. He would appeal as my each way but I would be a little surprised if I’M SPARTACUS couldn’t return to winning way’s this afternoon. Evan Williams’ 5yo gelding has been going up the weights without winning but the yard is in super form at present and he caught the eye when a solid 3rd off this same mark in a decent handicap hurdle at Cheltenham which has already had its form franked. He stayed on well that day and gives the impression this longer trip is worth a try. Many have accused the horse of not finding as much as expected off the bridle but if it is the fact he has been crying out for further then he could still be relatively unexposed. The ground looks ideal for him and interesting that the horse that beat him when he was 2nd two runs ago managed to land a feature handicap at Cheltenham last weekend. He is about the only runner in the line up that is still open to improvement and I would be quietly confident of him collecting today. Turtle Soup does appeal at long odds.
1.20
The feature chase of the afternoon and many will be looking towards New Little Bric who bypassed the Paddy Power Gold Cup last week and now lines up here. The 6yo by Bricassar made an impressive impression last season on four of his starts and whilst he was ultimately disappointing in the Dewson handicap chase it is worth mentioning that the form is now looking solid and he did have to shoulder a huge weight for a young horse. Reports out the yard over the summer have been largely encouraging and no surprise to see him have improved. The ground looks ideal for him and competent conditional takes a valuable 3lb off his back today. His trainer won this with classy chasers Cerium and Poliantas in recent years and confidence is high in the yard. Alan King saddled Massac to win this 2 years ago and he runs the unbeaten chaser Howle Hill here this time round. Extremely impressive on both his starts last season he suffered a setback which saw him miss the remainder of the season but the yards horses have certainly struck form lately and off 138 he doesn’t look badly treated. He is one I would want on my side.
Aztec warrior is another I expect to run his race and Henrietta Knights horses have been running really well lately and he wasn’t disgraced when beaten 8L by New Little Bric last season. He is 9lb better off now and with the yard in form there is a possible upset on the cards. I’m told this horse has improved over the summer and he must come under consideration. However the one I’m keen to go with is Colin Tizzard’s Mister Quasimodo who shaped with a great deal of encouragement behind the classy Twist Magic on his return at Exeter and it was good to see him put in a really good round of jumping. The horse seemed to lose his confidence last season after a nasty fall at Wincanton and never really got his jumping right in his two starts. Rested over the summer it seems those problems have been ironed out and off 133 he could be getting in here off a good mark. The yard has been amongst the winners lately and last season Collin sounded very optimistic when saying he thought this horse could make into a classy chaser. The good to soft ground may not be as soft as he likes it but it will suit him more than most and this 2m 3f looks the sort of trip that will suit given they are sure to go a good gallop. At 10/1 he is definitely overpriced and he represents decent each way value in a strong renewal. New Little Bric and Howle Hill can give him most to do.
1.50
The Lambourn lads have been biging up Afsoun this week and connections feel they have found a more suitable trip over 2m 4f for him. He had solid early season form last season and at the age of 5 he is open to more improvement than most in this line up. 2/1 however is rather short for what he has actually achieved over this trip and he would be getting 2lb off both Detroit City and Hardy Eustace in a handicap. I expect him to be on the premises but he could have done with slower ground and may find one or two too good today. Wichita Lineman is the one I’m keen to lay and whilst A. P. McCoy comes here to ride him I’m not sure how much choice he had in the matter. He took a long time to get going at Cheltenham when he was somewhat a fortunate winner but I suppose he suffered that fate at Aintree when a final flight error cost him dear. Jonjo’s have all been needing the run and I’m sure he will be no exception. This 2m 4f is likely to be on the short side for him now and against the speedier types like Detroit and Afsoun he does look somewhat up against it.
16/1 to me looks big about Kings Quay who won a valuable handicap last time at Wincanton and he stayed on very well on that occasion and was always outpaced. His class pulled him through on that occasion and for me he looked a horse in need of 2m 4f. With casting shadows over a couple of these I wouldn’t be surprised to see him snatch a place at big odds.
Detroit City really went off the boil at the end of last season and is better than we saw at Cheltenham and Aintree but its hard to know what to expect of him after a break and not totally convinced the easy ground will totally suit him here. Yet to actually prove he truly stays this far and whilst bits of form say he is good enough he is one of those that could easily go either way and I would rather leave the Jury out for this run.
For me the best option here is HARDY EUSTACE who has a good record fresh and put up a brilliant performance when dotting up in this race last season beating Mighty Man by 11 lengths. 2m 4f has always looked his most suitable trip and he is seen to his best when he has a strong gallop and ample ease in the ground. He has got both today and trainer reported earlier this week that he is in the form of his life. Just behind Afsoun at Cheltenham last season he strikes me as the more ideal 2m 4f performer and Im a firm believer that this is his perfect trip. He would have to give 2lb all round here in a handicap and the 11/4 looks generous in my eyes. He can take this from Afsoun with a sneaky feeling that Kings Quay may get 3rd at a big price.
2.20
Since the new course opened at Ascot front running horses in 2m chases have a 50% strike rate and a £23.83 profit to the £1 level stake. Pablo Du Charmil therefore looks good on the figures and whilst the yard aren’t exactly racking in the winners there does seem to be a bit more life in the yard. Pablo Du Charmil’s win at Exeter was very impressive and he made all at a strong gallop and never looked like getting beat from about 5 out. A 5lb rise doesn’t look unreasonable and the booking of Richard Johnson catches the eye given he has a 23% strike rate in chases around Ascot.
Demi Beau may try to match the Pipe horse up front but he was very disappointing last time and he may be flagging a bit high in the handicap. Another that may add pressure early is Bishops Bridge who has been in excellent form lately and ran out smooth winner last time at Huntingdon. An 11lb rise however may take its toll especially in a stronger race. Hasty Prince was one I fancied when he ran at Exeter but he was no match for Pablo Du Charmil and the difference in the weights doesn’t look enough to help him bridge the gap. He is not the biggest of horses and he often makes a mistake somewhere in his races. He is one I would look to in running if he is jumping smoothly and not too far off the pace with 4 or 5 to jump but looks to have place claims at best. If there is going to be a bit of an upset for me it will go to Ron Hodges’ improving chaser Charlton King’s. He chased home The Wicketkeeper here last time and ran a big race coming off a good gallop to gain and good second. He has won round here in the past and he hasn’t been out the first three in his last 7 completed starts. Only a lb higher than that last effort he has ideal ground conditions here and if there is a queue of horses going too quick up front he is likely to try and capitalise. For me he is the banker each way in the race but I would be slightly surprised if the improving chaser Pablo Du Charmil wasn’t too good for these, even if competition for the lead is a minor worry.
Haydock
Official Going: Good To Soft
12.30
There can be no doubt that Lightning Strike was the best of these on the level but besides running okay at Cheltenham and Aintree in competitive contests he is yet to truly show he has what it takes to win a race of this calibre. He has also given the impression that the 2m 5f he tackled on debut would be a more suitable trip in the long run and off 135 connections may have been better off looking for a handicap.
I’m really keen to take him on today and with Osprey View surely now exposed it may be best to look towards Tazbar and Chrysander. The former won 3 of his 5 bumper starts and shaped very impressively when 7L fourth to Theatrical Moment in the Aintree Bumper. I would however have minor concerns that 2m may be on the sharp side for him and therefore I’m confident to go with Evan Williams’ CHRYSANDER who was a classy recruit on the flat for Mick Channon. Having never really been able to land a blow on his hurdling debut he won with an awful lot in hand next time out and was being eased down well before jumping the last. He looks a really progressive sort and he has plenty of speed as he showed when challenging group races in his flat days. Best suited by cut in the ground he should get the good pace he requires from Osprey View and I would expect him to have too much speed for Lightening Strike and Tazbar who are the clear form dangers. Mexican Bob is another to consider but faces no easy task giving weight away all round and with that I’m keen to place faith in Evan Williams’ son of Cadeaux Genereaux and he is a great each way bet at 9/2.
1.05
A really tough and competitive handicap hurdle and there is plenty to like about the French raider Grand Bleuwho sloshed up here last season when beating Kings Revenge by 15L and again shaped with encouragement when 4th to Katchit in a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree. A mark of 145 is quite high on the basis of that form but he has since been a dual impressive winner back in his native country and the softening ground here won’t phase him at all. A rare British ride for Christophé Pieux he has to be respected. Pouvoir is one many will be looking to, to reverse the Chepstow form with Gwanako and he ran well off a lb lower mark when 4th in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton two weeks ago. He is 2lb better off with his Chepstow victor today for that length defeat and is an interesting opponent. Degas Art is one of these horses I really wanna lay and he didn’t impress me at Aintree when chasing home Katchit. He was receiving enough weight from the Triumph Hurdle winner and was probably travelling marginally better on the run to the last. Not for the first time he didn’t find much under pressure and hung left in doing so. He has undoubtedly got class about him but his wayward attitude often catches him out and a mark of 144 against some improving types leaves him rather vulnerable.
Irish raider Boulavogue should be staying on here and he has been running well lately without winning. 2nd to Erra Go On last time he hit a flat spot as the winner quickened and was left to stay on flat to regain 2nd. He gives the impression a step up in trip may not go a miss and his lack of gear change is almost certainly going to stand against him today. Pigeon Island is another in good form and he ran an honest race at Cheltenham last weekend staying on without ever seriously threatening. Like the Irish runner he too probably is better over further and against some more speedier opponents he will probably be staying on for a place at best.
GWANAKO for me is the clear cut selection here and whilst many will feel a 10lb rise for a length success is harsh it was the manner in which he travelled and accelerated before having to dig deep that impressed me. Weak in the market and reported as being in need of the run he still found enough to see off Pouvoir and was extending the lead close home. The Nicholls horses are in much better form now and given this horse was regarded a class act when the Ditcheat team got him he is likely to have the progression to excel further. Unbeaten over obstacles many at the Nicholls yard regard this as a future Champion Chaser and if he is to be of that calibre then he should have no problem shouldering a mark of 147 in a handicap hurdle where few are less exposed than himself. He rates as one of my strongest bets today and is very much a horse I think could end up a class act and even an interesting Champion Hurdle prospect. Grand Bleu who has solid course form is likely to give him most to think about and would be a bigger danger if we had any significant rainfall.
1.35
A really good line up for this valuable handicap hurdle and several of these revert from chasing to make seasonal reappearances. Eric’s Charm was an outstanding chaser a few years back and his return is more than welcomed here. Oliver Sherwood’s 9yo was last seen chasing home Lacdoudal in the Betfred Gold Cup 18 months ago and his return off a mark of 133 is interesting. He has a pleasing record fresh and if wound up he would be hard to keep out the frame. At 33/1 the bookmakers have taken a big chance to be hit and he certainly has each way value about him.
Coat Of Honour is another who could go well here and the way he was outpaced last time before staying on stoutly suggests the step up in trip may really suit him. He is another with outside claims given the yards current form.
Sonnyanjoe is interesting in the context of the race given the manner in which he won at Cheltenham but the form is definitely suspect and the weakness in the market principles suggested that they weren’t wound up for that race. 10lb higher here be is vulnerable and I would be keen to lay him at the right price.
Both Old Benny and Ungaro are worth considering given they would have improved for seasonal pipe openers and they both were very progressive horses last season who should suit these obstacles. They are two I expect to be there or thereabouts. The King yard also run Halcon Genelardais who Robert Thornton has opted to ride. Winning this race off a 12lb lower mark last season he cant be totally dismissed and is still 11lb well in compared to his chase mark. However the lack of a recent run does concern me as the yards horses have definitely been better for a run this season. He is one who should go well but others make slightly more appeal.
This really is an open contest but its really hard to get away from TARANIS who was seriously impressive when winning at Chepstow last season over hurdles and he has gone on to record grade one wins over fences since and returned in good style beating Justified a comfortable 5L at Down Royal. 27lb well in compared to his chase rating these brush French style hurdles should suit him down to the ground as they are like baby fences. He is reported in great nick at home and is by far the class horse in the race. Paul Nicholls has some classy prospects here today and he certainly heads the ones you would expect to win. I have no doubt in my mind he is very well handicapped and for me he represents one of the best bets in a long time. 2/1 is simply giving money away. He will win.
Of his opponents Eric’s Charm and Old Benny appeal at generous prices each way, whilst I wouldn’t want to rule out Coat Of Honour who is finally over a suitable trip.
2.05
Now for one I am a fan of Kauto Star but to make him 10/11 after the way he ran at Aintree somewhat baffles me and that price is one I am more than happy to take him on at. Not only is he error prone he raced in an unusually lazy attitude last time and was never really making any impression on the winner. Now I’m well aware he ran well on the whole giving all that weight away but continuous errors left him struggling to make up the ground and he had a harder race than many expected. There is every chance he will bounce back this afternoon to the impressive style he showed here last season but this is a marked stronger field and the price I am keen to take him on.
Beef Or Salmon for me is one who is woefully outclassed here and in my opinion should have been retired at the end of last season.
For me this is a three horse contest and that doesn’t include Kauto Star. Exotic Dancer is the one I have a doubt about and he was poor at Aintree any way you look at it. He will have surely improved for the run and the strong gallop he gets today will really suit him but the fact Tony McCoy has happily gone elsewhere suggests the horse isn’t quiet peaking yet.
In many regards My Way De Solzen could end up being a massive price here at 3/1 and he has the makings of a class act. Last seasons Arkle winner has already proven he is effective over this longer trip and he travels really well in his races looking like a star performer in the making. Reports suggest he is fitter than the average King horse first time out and he is expected to go very close.
However I’m prepared to take a brave stance and I just wish there was 3 places in this as at 12/1 I think Turpin Green is cracking each way value. He is best after a break and Nicky Richards has his horses in really good form. He was mightily impressive on debut last year and ran his best race when 3rd in the Gold Cup after a break. If Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star aren’t on song at present and My Way blows up then 12/1 suddenly looks very big about a horse who is likely to track Ollie Magern up front and get first run on the main principles. He has always looked a horse that would suit this race and I just cant help thinking we haven’t seen the best of this horse yet. With his strong record fresh I’m prepared to take a chance on him today each way. My Way de Solzen is the obvious danger whilst I’m keen to take on Kauto Star.
Good Luck
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