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Thread: Paddy Power Preview

  1. #1
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    The Paddy Power Gold Cup 2007

    So the race which really starts the jump season has arrived. The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham will always be remembered as the Mackeson for many but for me it certainly kicks in the feel of proper racing being back.

    Cheltenham’s undulating left handed track offers a unique test to both horse and man and with 2 tricky downhill fences to master it really takes some jumping, that is of course all before the stamina sapping hill kicks in. Many horses have been running away down to the 2nd last and looked all over the winner (I dread to think what Latalomne would have been trading at in the Champion Chase in 2003 had the exchanges popular in running market’s been around) before crashing into the turf by over jumping the trickiest fence on the course. Many a good horse have also looked destined for glory at the bottom of the hill as they turn for home only to stop quickly as the hill gets stiffer and stiffer. The words One Man spring to mind in the Gold Cup, how every year this gallant grey would come chomping at the bit over the 2nd last and how the crowd would roar him on as he ran to the last, before he would courageously empty when it really mattered. He however unlike so many before and after him found his own piece of glory here when finally earning a Cheltenham crown, winning the champion chase and raising the roof.
    I swear the atmosphere of Prestbury Park gets to some horses and gives that horse a surge as he clears the last to a momentous roar before that long run in separates the boys from the men.

    A strong galloping track both stamina and natural jumping ability is needed as shown above but to the point you need a change of gear here. Many kick on coming down the hill and get the field strung out whilst the gallopers find a flat spot before they try to gain momentum up that long run in. Stealing 3 or 4 lengths off the final bend can be so crucial especially if you can seal it with a super leap at the last.

    When I think back of past runnings of this race I always think of Dublin Flyer pining fence to fence under Brendan Powell or the classy Cyfor Malta who won the race twice in 98 and 2002. He is only the fifth horse to do that feat and followed in the footsteps of Bradbury Star (Josh Gifford), Hall Free (Fred Winter), Gay Trip (Fred Rimell) and Fortria (Tom Dreaper). Martin Pipe also had a stranglehold on the race winning it no less than 8 times. Now that mantle has been passed onto his Son David, and he too will be looking to add Vodka Bleu to that elite winners list.

    It is Cyfor Malta however I have fondest memories of and for me it was a cold and rainy trip to Rome that pulled out one of my finest bets. Travelling over with Cotton House who was running in Italy that weekend I was reading the Racing Post full on anticipation of what followed in a glorious weekends racing and what I would be missing on that long horse box journey. Cyfor Malta was returning to Cheltenham a long time after an Injury which many thought had finished his career, but the 1998 winner had his own bit of history to make. Having won under AP in 98 he returned a unconsidered 20/1 (went off 16s) shot under Barry Geraghty. AP deserted him this time for the 2/1 favourite Chicuelo who like many favourites in this race, failed to figure. For me I have always noted that horses do well in this race if they have performed well in the past here and with that I made my mind up he was overpriced at such big odds. The yard that I was working for at the time (Mick Channon’s) also had a runner that same Saturday. He was a 2yo colt called The Ring, having shown promise at home he was running in the maiden at Wolverhampton and was a rewarding 11/2 in the morning with Vickers. Having placed £10 ew on both, I also placed a £10 ew double. This was quite a decent bet for me as a young stable lad but I sat confidently in a stable yard in Milan waiting for commentary to come through on my mobile phone.
    All before the race the pundits kept repeating this saying I have never understood “They Don’t Come back”, it was implied that as good as Cyfor Malta was he had already had his day here and that after a long time off his weight of 11st 9lb would see his chance a small one. Unfortunately for the pundits Cyfor Malta jumped fence to fence and cantered his way to the front before pulling off a courageous leap at the last. He strode away up the Cheltenham hill to gain his second success. I remember thinking to myself they say they don’t come back, obviously they didn’t tell Cyfor Malta. It proved one thing that is true, a horse knows a racetrack and sometimes returning to their finest hour means pulling one last major effort out the fire, in a way of thanking those that kept the faith.
    As for The Ring he completed the double in that Wolverhampton maiden, it was an enjoyable trip to Rome after all.

    This year the Paddy Power has a strong feel to it, unlike last years race where the majority were unknown chasers who were yet to show their chasing cards, this years is full of horses who have proven themselves at a high level and many have what I consider vital and that is solid course form.

    The race in general is normally won by a horse carrying 10st 10lb or more but it should also be noted that it also suits horses who have been placed or won here before and are also having their seasonal reappearance.

    A few horses fit this description but the one which stands out is the talented GRANIT JACK , he was a high class chaser in France and recorded 4 wins in very good style. Having shown good form in leading novices hurdles last season he is 9lb well in for his British Chasing Debut. The Nicholls camp have publicly said they feel he could be a potential Champion chaser and if that is accurate then this horse will be a handicap certainty.

    The race also likes a big price each way shot every year and I’ve found 3 horses with value alongsides the favourite. Vodka Bleu is one I backed last season and he is only a pound higher this time round. He scraped in the weights this season and the first time cheekpieces could be key to him here. He jumps this course very well and is back on his ideal ground and trip. He is certainly a strong each way alternative.

    2 against the front of the market include the talented but inconsistent Crozan , Nicky Henderson’s horse fits all the true stats mentioned for the race and he always runs his best race fresh. He had grade 1 horses on the spin when falling at the festival and he looks potentially well treated here off his handicap mark. He was very impressive on his British debut here a couple of years ago and would be an ideal each way bet as he is sure to get competitive and the turn of foot he has could see him go close.

    Finally Palarshan should not be discounted and he returned after 2 years off the track to come 2nd in a competitive race here at the festival. Henry Daly’s horse always runs well fresh and he comes here off a competitive handicap mark. He loves it round Cheltenham and this ground is absolutely perfect for him. I would expect to see him running on late and he could be the surprise runner in the field.

    Advised Bets;

    5PTS WIN – GRANIT JACK
    1.5pts Ew – VODKA BLEU
    1pt Ew – Crozan
    0.75pts Ew – Palarshan

    0.2pts Combination Forecast and Tricast.

    Good Luck

  2. #2
    Senior Member Arazi's Avatar
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    Great preview Chris. :clap:

    I also backed Cyfor Malta when he won at 16-1 with Barry Geraghty on board. I remember looking at the line up for the race in the morning and thinking that Cyfor Malta was the class act and should be able to cope with his big weight. As you've said he proved that to be the case with fine performance.

    Personally, Bradbury Star is the horse that I really think of when it comes to this race. He was really classy and one of my favourite horses in the mid 90s. His second victory in the race when he out battled Second Schedule in 1994 is one of my favourite races.

    Today's contest is typically really competitive. I actually agree with all the horses you mentioned. I probably would have singled out the same four horses myself although I may have gone with Copsale Lad instead of Crozan. I've backed Palarshan each-way as I think he's a fantastic bet at his current big price of around 28-1. Granit Jack could be thrown in at the weights and personally I'd like him to win because he's one the horses I've put in my list for the ten to follow Competition!

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Good read but as I posted elsewhere following Chris's piece no preview is complete without a mention of L'Antartique
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Chris, the first two thirds of your post reads like the sort of padding you would get on a tipping line to stretch out the cost of the call. :P
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    I'll take Bob Hall to win it.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Taken 8.6 on Betfair about L`Antartique.

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    I backed Crozan and Granit Jack, was looking really good before two out.

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    Senior Member Arazi's Avatar
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    What a shame Granit Jack had to be put down. Such a promising racehorse.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Damn, that`s soured my mood. Such a shame.

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    A terrible shame. A lovely, promising horse.

    From what I understand he broke his neck and died instantly, so let's hope he felt nothing.
    <span style=\'font-family:Arial\'><span style=\'colorurple\'><span style=\'font-size:8pt;line-height:100%\'>www.racehorsememories.co.uk</span></span></span>

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    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    So close - I had 1st, 2nd and 4th in my combination forecast!
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

  12. #12
    Kathy
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    Originally posted by Diamond Geezer@Nov 17 2007, 09:32 AM
    Good read but as I posted elsewhere following Chris's piece no preview is complete without a mention of L'Antartique
    I hope you had your money on, DG!

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    "So close - I had 1st, 2nd and 4th in my combination forecast! "

    Why is Headstrong posting as Shadow Leader? :P
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    And may I be the first to place on record my admiration of your bravery Colin
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Bravery, Warbs? I'm sure Colin's nothing to fear from Headstrong!
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

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