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Thread: Proper Racing

  1. #1
    Senior Member betsmate's Avatar
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    133 days and counting.
    Winners have no shame, no matter how they win - Niccolò Machiavelli

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    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Shame you can't count, Betsmate - it's 121 days that most are counting down to! :P
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

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    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Till Great Leigh's opens?
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

    Twitter: @Quevega

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    Senior Member Arkwright's Avatar
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    Nah,that'll be years (not days).

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    Senior Member betsmate's Avatar
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    To be fair SL. Cheltenham is the best of a bad job. Good filler.
    Winners have no shame, no matter how they win - Niccolò Machiavelli

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    Senior Member Harbinger's Avatar
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    (Japan Cup in fifteen days...)

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    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Dubai Carnival, Melbourne Carnival, Santa Anita - bloomin' lightweights
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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    is it only 133 days to Royal Ascot?........are you sure?????

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    Senior Member Harbinger's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Nov 10 2007, 03:52 PM
    Shame you can't count, Betsmate - it's 121 days that most are counting down to! :P
    Yes yes, we know the Jumps season starts on the Tuesday of the Cheltenham Festival.

    Time to tuck in and snooze through 4 months of trials...

  10. #10
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    MODERATORS!!!!!!!!!!! Could one of you remove that blasphemous comment about snoozing, please?!
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

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    Senior Member Harbinger's Avatar
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    it's NH racing you are looking forward to, got you now

    yep, I love watching Flat horses rated 35 and less... jumping over hedges

    isn't it just bandit racing at that level?

    don't people hate bandit racing?

    where's Grasshopper?

    :laughing:

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    Betsmate, the "Cheltenham Saturday - thank God the wait is over" thread is respectfully drawn to your attention. You are conforming to a tedious stereotype.

  14. #14
    Senior Member betsmate's Avatar
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    :laughing:
    Winners have no shame, no matter how they win - Niccolò Machiavelli

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    I prefer Jumps as a spectator spectacle, but as a betting medium it's lousy (outside of the festival and a handful of metings) and I reckon I'd be better off sticking to one of the three possible outcomes of a football match. I don't really have a penchant for odds on betting, and aren't terribly enamoured by 2/1 or less either.

    Only a few weeks ago jumps enthusiasts were getting excited about Aintree's Sunday card and the television spectacle to show case 4 or 5 horses running against each other. Winning TV SP's 4/9, 4/6, evens and 9/4. Now admittedly the card did turn up a 50/1 winner, but that was a flat race anyway :P

    I can't be bothered to delve through the season to date, and have just used the BBC archive which carries results from October 31st at the time of writing, but they obviously get supplanted with each passing day.

    During this period (give a take a few as I had to hand count them) there's been;

    148 jumps races, 26 {17.5%} were won by an odds on shot.
    17 of the 22 cards (77%) featured at least one odds on winner
    32% of the cards featured at least 2 or more odds on winners.

    Using 2/1 or lower as another benchmark,

    56 of the 148 races, a whacking 38% were won by a horse within this range.
    Not a single card for the sample period featured a winner with at least a minimum 2/1 price.
    12 of the 22 cards, (54%) featured at least 3 winners or more that were 2/1 or less.

    Why would anybody pay the petrol, the parking and the entrance fee? Is it a question of lack of depth and class etc Well yesterdays features jumps card was Wincanton winning SP's were returned as follows

    7/4, 15/2, 5/2, 2/1, 4/1, 15/8 & 4/6 = approx ave 3/1

    The week before that it was Wetherby and the Charlie Hall, winning SP's were returned as follows

    8/13, 4/5, 7/2, 4/6, 9/2, 11/4, & 14/1 = approx ave 4/1 (largely down to 1 horse)

    Compare the flat over the same period, (and its hardly the most competitive part of the season either)

    168 flat races, 10 were won by odds on shots (6%)
    8 of the 24 cards featured at least 1 odds on winner (33%). This is less than half the number for jumps cards despite flat cards typically featuring an extra race.
    Only 1 card (5%) featured at least 2 odds on winners compared to a jumps figure of 7 or 32%

    Again using the 2/1 or lower benchmark

    30 out of 168 races were won by a 2/1 shot or less (17.8%) compared to a jumps figure of 38%
    Only 3 cards failed to land at least one 2/1 winner, which suggests that 'geting out' opportunities hadn't necessarily been sacrificed. Every jumps card managed at least 2/1 or less.
    Perhaps the most startling difference was in the number of cards that featured 3 or more winners at 2/1 or less? Remember a majority of jumps cards conformed to this pattern (12 out of 22) or 54%. Despite havign an extra race in a lot of cases, only 3 out of 24 flat cards managed this dubious honour (12%) or four and half time less likely.

    In other words the same percentage of horses that win at 2/1 or less on the flat do so at odds on over the jumps. Now where's that football coupon norty
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  16. #16
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    Only a few more days to Cheltenham

  17. #17
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Hallelujah!!
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

  18. #18
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Time to get the campaign for a Grade 1 X-Country Chase back on the road
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

    Twitter: @Quevega

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