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Thread: Current Standings In Jockey Title

  1. #1
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    Name Wins Runs % Places %
    J P Spencer 175 862 20.3 383 44.4
    S Sanders 171 1035 16.5 411 39.7
    R L Moore 119 623 19.1 267 42.9
    R Hughes 114 745 15.3 285 38.3
    J Fortune 100 643 15.6 247 38.4
    N Callan 96 756 12.7 276 36.5
    K McEvoy 92 518 17.8 190 36.7
    T E Durcan 90 758 11.9 239 31.5
    L Dettori 77 376 20.5 160 42.5
    P Hanagan 76 689 11.0 212 30.8
    S Drowne 76 725 10.5 208 28.7
    Martin Dwyer 69 594 11.6 174 29.3
    R Hills 68 389 17.5 155 39.9
    T P Queally 65 462 14.1 145 31.4
    Jim Crowley 64 675 9.5 180 26.7
    C Catlin 63 738 8.5 193 26.1
    R Ffrench 62 675 9.2 184 27.3
    D Holland 60 581 10.3 166 28.6
    [B]I once had a photographic memory which was never developed!! that's why I get such negative responses?[/B]
    [B]I used to play the sex organ but now I'm restricted to a YAMAHA...:confused:[/B]

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    Senior Member betsmate's Avatar
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    He certainly deserves it on strike rate.
    Winners have no shame, no matter how they win - Niccolò Machiavelli

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    I think if RYAN had not got that injury he would be up there too making it a three horse race(excuse the pun :P )
    [B]I once had a photographic memory which was never developed!! that's why I get such negative responses?[/B]
    [B]I used to play the sex organ but now I'm restricted to a YAMAHA...:confused:[/B]

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    strike rate means bugger all though if you are consistently riding horses with a better market chance than your opponent.

    have you been watching Sanders mounts over the last few weeks?..they are averaging a way higher starting price than Spencers..ie a lot less chance of winning.

    if sanders had got the same connections and a decent agent he would be winning easy

    strike-rate alone is a complete red herring

    sanders is regularly riding donkeys with little chance of winning.

    someone made a point on another forum about spencer riding less horses which makes his achievement greater.. load of bllocks.


    who would you rather back to ride most wins in this hypothetical instance?

    Jockey A
    will ride 100 x 2/1 shots over the next month

    Jockey B
    will ride 200 x 10/1 shots

    I wonder how many would think that jockey A is a better rider when he ends up with more winners..as he should do according to the odds..75% of punters I would imagine.

    a jockeys title means nothing in reality..it's 75% who gets the best rides...25% riding ability...so is a worthless measure.

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    Senior Member betsmate's Avatar
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    I accept all of that. But you can only win on what you ride. Spencer has got the job done most often.
    Winners have no shame, no matter how they win - Niccolò Machiavelli

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    Just looking at todays mounts for each rider (RP forecast price)

    SANDERS
    7/4
    9/1
    20/1
    9/2
    8/1
    14/1
    10/1
    7/2
    8/1
    20/1
    11/2
    4/1

    SPENCER
    10/1
    5/2
    5/1
    4/1
    11/2
    6/1
    9/2
    3/1
    3/1

    the average price for Sanders mounts = 9/1
    the average price of Spencers mounts = 5/1

    it's not much wonder spencer is riding more winners really..he's on the best horses today..yet again...not much point having more rides if overall you are riding poorer horses

    I don't take any notice of any jockey championships because of this sort of anomaly..the best way to measure a jockey..is to record how many wins they get when riding a top rated selection in each race..Timeform or RPR ratings..this eliminates this anomaly and compares riders over a long period..on similar chanced mounts.


    I did loads of trainer and jock ratings using top RPR horses when I was posting on TRF..I can't use RSB (vista) now.. so can't recreate them..that method reasonably accurately measures just how good riders are.

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    Totally agree with EC1 that the award should go to Spencer's agent

    Feel really sorry for Seb that he's been really flogging himself and just hasn't had the horses to do it over the last two months - but esp the last two weeks. You almost feel a few trainers have been sending runners to eg Wolves just to accommodate JS. Seb will never put himself through that again, so it will be sad if he doens't get his name on the title board. After JS has had that honour before

    Driving to Wolves drives me bonkers three or so times a year, let alone five or six nights a week...
    But JS has a helicopter doesn't he - hope he's been giving Seb a lift norty

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    Are you related to Tommy Cooper EC1? Talk about manipulating the figures to suit your cause. "The best way to measure a jockey is how many wins they get on a top rated in the RP or Timeform" you say. Who says it is, I've never heard that before, sounds a load of tripe to me.

    I'm not a statsman but if you want the stats on the jockeys championship they are:
    Spencer has ridden 5 more winners than Sanders from 170 less rides, he has a 20% strike rate compared to Sanders 16% and to a pound level stake he has a loss of £35 compared to a loss of £166 for Sanders. If you had laid all Spencers mounts you would be showing a heavy loss and even being more selective like you've tried in your other slagging off Spencer thread you would already be several points down plus commission having completed your hat trick of unsuccessul lays on Friday

    Sanders is a good, competent jockey but not in the same class as Spencer who will be a very worthy champion again, hopefully.

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    I can't give you any figures on Timeform or RPR top-rated but I have compiled a breakdown of their figures by way of fancied and unfancied rides and they are very similar on fancied rides


    Favourites

    Spencer 350 rides 115 wins (32.9) return 96.3%

    Sanders 321.........109.........(34.0)..........97.2%


    Favourite + second favourite

    Spencer 525..........149.........(28.4)..........93.8%

    Sanders 505...........144........(28.5)..........91.8%


    First three in the betting

    Spencer 663..........173..........(26.1).........97.5%

    Sanders 660..........170...........(25.8)........95.1%

    It seems that Seb gets a lot more rides on no-hopers as the rest of their rides show.

    Spencer 296...........19............ (6.4).........84.3%

    Sanders 506............24.............(4.7)........65.6%

    Figures gleaned from the Adrian Massey site.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Oct 28 2007, 09:45 AM


    Spencer 296...........19............ (6.4).........84.3%

    Sanders 506............24.............(4.7)........65.6%
    As I suspected Colin, Jamie has a much better strike rate (over 35% better) and return (nearly 20%) on no hopers than Sanders :laughing:

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    Are you related to Tommy Cooper EC1? Talk about manipulating the figures to suit your cause. "The best way to measure a jockey is how many wins they get on a top rated in the RP or Timeform" you say. Who says it is, I've never heard that before, sounds a load of tripe to me.

    Dick Whitford, I think, used to do a similar thing, and over a period of time was shown to be very good at spotting good jockeys before the masses latched on to them. My method was similar using RSB to see how a jockey performed when riding top rated RPR horses only. It's a way of trying to make a level playing field to judge the abilty of the trainer or jockey….without bias. The reason you have never heard of it before is that you appear to have no lateral thought whatsover and have no understanding of what makes a jockey the best of his era. It is bound to sound like tripe to you as it doesn't involve the words "I Luv Jamie”.

    I'm not a statsman but if you want the stats on the jockeys championship they are:
    Spencer has ridden 5 more winners than Sanders from 170 less rides, he has a 20% strike rate compared to Sanders 16% and to a pound level stake he has a loss of £35 compared to a loss of £166 for Sanders. If you had laid all Spencers mounts you would be showing a heavy loss and even being more selective like you've tried in your other slagging off Spencer thread you would already be several points down plus commission having completed your hat trick of unsuccessul lays on Friday


    I've made plenty of money backing and laying Spencer all season, the fact that you are judging something over the period of one week tells me you have little in the way of sense or judgement about you.

    Strike rates and LSP mean nothing without knowing the price of each horse involved, which you clearly don't know. Spencer rides more shorter priced horses % wise so is bound to have a higher % strike rate for a start…LSP means bugger all if one jockey is riding more donkeys than the other one..you really seem to struggle with the fact that riding horses with little chance of winning will give overall worse figures..it would only take Sanders to win a very small number of those outsiders to be level on LSP with Spencer…LSP is a figure that looks meaningful..but is totally meaningless.

    “Statsman”, I thought you were female??? You post as “Lovely Lady” on TRF don’t you? Fancy trying to pull the old “I am a girl” routine, tut tut.

    As helpful as those Massey stats are ..they aren’t very accurate…the outsiders group is not accurate enough..they will include a range of 10/1 shots to 50/1 shots..a big differnce in chance of winning there. You need to split each price range into groups...8/1-10/1...11/1-16/1...17/1-25/1...etc….before they tell you anything worthwhile.

    This would also be necessary with the other end of the price scale, there is a big difference in the chance of an 8/11 favourite and a 3/1 one for instance….in simple terms that you might follow..8/11 shots win more times than 3/1 shots..so judging them as the same thing is a nonsense….i hope you can see this..it’s not really difficult is it?

    Sanders is a good, competent jockey but not in the same class as Spencer who will be a very worthy champion again, hopefully.

    Jockeys don't have class Dante, they differ slightly in consistency/abilty and have agents with differing levels of ability and connections.

    When riding similar chance horses there is nowt between the pair of them..and both are below the figures Dettori/Fallon/Eddery/Moore for instance, are capable of producing..when riding similar chance horses.

    If all this is too complicated for you….a 10 year old could follow this surely...then maybe you would be better posting on a forum somewhere that is relevant to what you know something about?

    I’m pretty sure you are probably just on the wind up here though..I would hope so anyway…no one really thinks the jockey “title” means much just on the bare figures surely…well not outside the betting shop arena anyway.

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    You rang, Sir!!

    Price <1/2
    Spencer 6 rides 2 wins (33.3) return 45.5%
    Sanders 13.......12.......(92.3)..........127.9%

    1/2 - 10/11
    Spencer 35.....18.........51.4.............90.5%
    Sanders 32......19........59.4.............101.0

    evens - 11/8
    Spencer 55.......21........38.2............84.4
    Sanders 41.......11.........26.8...........59.1

    6/4 -15/8
    Spencer 63........28.........44.4..........119.8
    Sanders 59.........21........35.6...........96.0

    2/1 - 11/4
    Spencer 128.......37........28.9............95.3
    Sanders 128.......41........32.0...........108.2

    3/1 - 9/2
    Spencer 224.......44.........19.6...........91.7
    Sanders 223.......44.........19.7...........92.0

    5/1 - 15/2
    Spencer 199........28.........14.1..........97.7
    Sanders 223........27.........12.1..........86.5

    8/1 - 10/1
    Spencer 107........8............7.5..........71.5
    Sanders 158........5............3.2..........31.0

    11/1 - 14/1
    Spencer 72..........2............2.8..........36.1
    Sanders 115........9.............7.8.........105.2

    16/1 - 25/1
    Spencer 60..........3............5.0...........106.7
    Sanders 119........3............2.5.............46.2

    28/1 - 50/1
    Spencer 8............1.............12.5..........637.5
    Sanders 45..........2...............4.4...........151.1

    66/1 or more
    Spencer 2............0
    Sanders 10..........0

    I must point out that these are the figures for this season only and it took me twice as long to type them out than it did to produce them.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    There is an even quicker/better way than all that work Colin

    The FLATSTATS site use the A/E rating, they work out how many winners should be ridden at the prices...eg if a jockey rides 10 even money shots then the expected wins would be 5.

    So an A/E rating of 1.0 ....Actual wins = 5...Expected wins = 5 shows a jockey is riding the expected amount of winners re the actual chance they had.

    This is the same as what you have done above..but to a very accurate degree.

    Flatstats

    1 March - 27 October

    Turf: SPENCER = Actual wins = 130: expected wins = 141: A/E = 0.92

    Turf: SANDERS = Actual wins = 125: expected wins = 133: A/E = 0.94

    On Turf Sanders is better than Spencer..but it's not massive is it?



    1 March - 27 October

    All Weather: SPENCER = Actual wins = 62: expected wins = 66: A/E = 0.94

    All Weather SANDERS = Actual wins = 71: expected wins = 85: A/E = 0.84

    On AW Spencer is better than Sanders..but that is from a lot smaller sample than the turf stats.


    If anyone can see that one of these two is head and shoulders above the other..then go ahead and point out where.

    Neither of them rides winners above their odds chance for a start..and it is swings and roundabouts who is best depending on the surface.

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    Spencer has some good bookings tomorrow

    F/c prices

    5/2
    7/4
    6/1
    4/1
    7/2
    5/1
    9/4

    Expected winners with those prices would be 2

    Seb's agent needs to get a few days rides like this for him..or he won't stand a prayer

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    Sanders is retained stable jockey to Sir Mark Prescott. Therefore he has to go to whichever meeting Sir Mark has runners at; and he has to ride everything in the stable, regardless of its ability, state of readiness etc etc. It's hardly a level playing field, is it.

    I'd say JS is capable of more "brilliance" than Seb, and he's good at getting free-running horses to settle; but he loses a lot of races on short priced horses which he ought to have won, due to his lack of flexibility in tactics. He's too often in the wrong place in a race. Seb is more 'workmanlike' but he rarely loses a race which he ought to win - ie when he is on the best horse.

    Anyone who thinks it's excusable to be so often in the wrong place, should take a look at Philip Robinson. He picks and chooses his rides carefully, outside the Jarvis yard, so he doesn't ride the volume most of the other top jocks do. Maybe that means he is more focussed for each ride, I dunno; but he is never, ever in the wrong place, so far as I can recall.

    I'd totally agree that Ryan Moore is the best flat jock we have riding now, since Fallon is hors de combat; and I'd put Frankie in the top rank too. He gets rushes of blood to the head as well - but not as often as JS does.

  16. #16
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    Seb Sanders is probably one of the nicest jockeys I have met in my 13 years of racehorse ownership. What an absolute gent he is. He may not win the title this year but comparing personalities with Jamie Spencer he would get my vote every time.

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    Senior Member Spoons's Avatar
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    I have to say Ive never thought of Seb as champion jockey material,but I agree hes one of the nicest guys around and Id love to see him win it just once.

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    JS rides the 2 expected winners, so is presently riding to an A/E of 1.0.

    This highlights the difficulty Sanders has..he has to ride well above the 1.0 level of expectation..just to pull back level..and then a bit more to make up for the fact he rides horses with less chance....very tough task.

    JS looks like he has it won comfortable unless he hits another patch of poor riding..he will get the best rides and can even afford to ride slightly below his best from now to the end and still win easily.

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    Yes EC1 but there's only you and a few other geezers on here putting it up as gospel, it is pure drivel to me. Is there many in the racing media who subscribe to your stats and figures views? Incidentally Rob Wright from The Times was the pundit on RUK today and he called Spencer a class jockey, have you not told him there's no such thing?

    Regarding your attempted petty insults that belong in the nursery, if you had half a brain you would know "Lovely Lady" is Dakota on here. Maybe you should put a call out for her.

    If I had resort to the sort of rubbish you've posted on here I'd give the game up. What do you say when someone asks your opinion of a jockey, "Hang on I'll just get my figures out and check how he's rated? lol

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    Sorry Dante, I thought it was you that was LL, apologies. shrug::

    Just because you think something is rubbish doesn't mean it is..[which I think is a pretty ignorant thing to say when someone goes to the trouble of actually spelling out something]..but not being as touchy as you about rudeness..I'll let it go.

    I haven't insulted you anymore than you asked for, you started the childish..oooh you are losing now sh.te on the other thread..so you will extract the response you probably deserved imho.

    I can't see your problem..except you just cannot accept that Spencer is just an ordinary jock..the figures record real events..he would be winning above the odds if he were as good as you say..not less than them.

    He is very lucky that Sanders hasn't got a decent book of rides every day like he has..because it would be a very close call now.

    You dismiss extremely accurate figures that actually record fact...then tell me someone in a newspaper has said he is a class jockey ...so he must be then :laughing: :laughing:

    can't you make your own mind up..without some bloody journo telling you what to think?

    deary me

    I know you think he is superb..you keep telling me..I just disagree..he's just an average jock with a good agent..Sanders is just an average jock with a not so good agent...it's not hard to grasp really.

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