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Thread: Irish Grand National

  1. #1
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    Any fancys for this? Have not looked at it that closely but one that jumps off the page is the novice King Johns Castle. Being racing over 2 miles all season but looks for all the world a stayer in the making. Entered in loads of other novice races in the next few weeks so hard to know what the plans are but interesting to see where he lines up.

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    I like a new story for this, perhaps the ground has gone a bit against him though.....anywya took some 20s lastnite, PPower are paying out 1st 5.

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    I'm waiting for an capall's message...

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    Arrives in a bottle!!Is that correct Brian? :P

    Message in a bottle.......... h34r:
    [B]I once had a photographic memory which was never developed!! that's why I get such negative responses?[/B]
    [B]I used to play the sex organ but now I'm restricted to a YAMAHA...:confused:[/B]

  5. #5
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    He fancies the Mullins yoke. Wait for my e-mail. I hear Fenton has one who is so quick he dodges bullets at home...

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    Never been a fan of King John's Castle.. very sloppy jumper, even when tried over longer trips and throws in some shockers.. best caught fresh though..

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    Whyso Mayo is in off a very handy weight if they put a professional jockey on him - one that can present him better at his fences (rules BJG out). He's probably not going to get the trip very strongly and you know what I think of his jumping but with 10-4 he'd be a small bit of value at 16s.

  8. #8
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    King Johns Castle next to no chance of staying trip for the Irish National. Very live contender for Powers Gold Cup if he takes that option.

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    Please check your PM boxes by lunchtime Saturday.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    Great.

    I always look forward to the Irish National. Almost as much as The Pierse Hurdle

    :P
    I could be the judge!

    I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

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    Originally posted by an capall@Apr 5 2007, 03:07 PM
    Please check your PM boxes by lunchtime Saturday.
    May I have one? Please

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    Homer Wells must be a far too short a price on the likely going now?

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    Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 5 2007, 07:23 PM
    Homer Wells must be a far too short a price on the likely going now?
    Will probably be pulled out if the going is too fast -as he was last year.
    Dix Villez has always promised to do something worthwhile.

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    Well with Henderson keeping Juveniguer in, Taafe's been forced to keep Cane Brake in order to keep the weight down for Kings Advocate :laughing:

    Alright some might call it cheating, personally in this instance I'd call it shrewd, but it doesn't guarantee Kings Advocates victory, even if it forces half the field out of the handicap. All it does is ensure that his 'plot' horse (if indeed that's what it is?) is well treated, but there's a couple of others there or thereabouts who look to have benefited by proxy, and both look to have better claims on known form, and profile.

    It only becomes cheating a bit I suppose if Kings Advocate suddenly demonstrates a liking for the trip having run no further than 21F over fences previously, and never won at 24F on his two attempts at the distance over hurdles. Then you'd be tempted to ask whether his mark had been kept down by running him over an inadequate distance, as he would potentially have quite a bit in hand by way of improvement, above his alloted weight, if this was the case.

    Personally, I can't help feeling that Gazza's Girl's 15.5L defeat behind Denman over 25F, doesn't read better than Kings Advocates 11L defeat behind L'Antartique over 21F. Both carried a similar weight, and with the extra half mile, Jessie Harrington's horse has probably carried more in reality. Certainly enough to turn around the 1Ib difference.

    Despite reservations about the ground doing for New Story, expressed earlier on thread, I'm not sure there's that much evidence to say he won't act on it? Sure he's got winning form in heavy, and probably a preference thus, but he's got solid place form on Good, in competitive races.

    2nd of 16,
    3rd of 26
    and 3rd of 14.

    He was third in last years renewal, beaten 9L's by Point Barrow when in receipt of 2Ibs. He was subsequently beaten 0.75L's when failing to withstand the same horses late charge at Leopardstown in January when in receipt of 9Ibs this time.

    The 7Ib pull in the weights at 24F with Point Barrow is pretty well spot on, (well about half a length away) from where he should have been for their respective distances in the previous renewal of the Irish National.

    2Ibs = 9L's
    9Ibs = 0.75L's

    means 7Ibs = 8.75L's @ 24F

    which should have resulted in Point Barrow winning by 0.25L's once the 8.75 is deducted from the 9 from Fairyhouse. In my book the 0.75L's that it ultimately turned out to be is near enough to suggest that both horses have developed in line with each others improvement schedules.

    If you believe that Point Barrow is a good thing for Aintree? then despite being 4Ibs higher than he was when third last year New Story seems to be worth the weight on the evidence of his Leopardstown run with that well touted and fancied Liverpool candidate. That Michael Hourigan subsequently sent him handicap hurdling in his next two assignments might suggest that the trainer agrees?

    There's further evidence from the Paddy Power Handicap Chase run at Leopardstown over Christmas through the winner, and Irish National top weight Cane Brake. He beat New Story 17L's giving him 8Ibs. At Fairyhouse he's due to carry 12.0 to New Story's 10.0 suggetsing the mark has been protected well. Hourigans ensured that he now enjoys a 20Ib pull with his 17L conqueror of that day, which should give him something like a 12L advantage at race distance over the Gold Cup 5th.

    The Paddy Power Cup also has a habit of throwing up horses who don't win, but subsequently go onto success in April;

    Davids Lad 9th, Bobbyjo 8th, The Bunny Boiler 2nd, and Point Barrow 10th...... A New Story 5th????
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    I don't think Cane Brake is in just for the craic - I actually think he could give a bold showing

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    I'll take A New Story. Shame he isn't going to Aintree though.

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    As I understand it, Taafe had already been preparing the ground for taking Cane Brake out, and might yet do so. Although I'm far from clever on these things, but my crude understanding of the rules allows for the weights to be raised on the day in the event of a top weight non-runner, but only if the top weight is more than 7lb clear of the next horse?. Thus, Cane Brake being there gets Kings Advocate & Ruby 10st, which forces half the field out of the handicap and there is nothing that can change that. Juvenigeur is 6Ibs lower than Cane Brake, had he come out, then Cane Brake would have had to run to prevent the weights rising a full stone. If he lines up though, then Cane Brake can come out on the day, without the weights rising? the booking of a 7Ib claimer suggests to me that they're wary of the burden at the very least.

    As I suggested, Kings Advocate won't be the only beneficiary of this though.

    Cane Brake might very well be good enough to carry what will now be 11.7 in effect, and of those higher up the list, he'd probably be the one I'd be most wary of (though you'd be foolish to ignore the remarkable consistancy of Juvigneurs 'runs to place' ratio on completed starts since arriving from France. The 20Ibs pull for New Story with Cane Brake is now 13Ibs with the claimer on board, even so 0.7Ibs = 1L @29F and this still gives the Hourigan horse the nod in turning around 17L's on the Paddy Power result, but the projected distance is now down to 1.5L's, and not the 11.5 - 12L's it should have been. Although the margins are fine now, you have to come down on one side I suppose, and since flicking a coin is the alternative, I'll go this route. In actually fact the one that might be interesting is Gazzas Girl who also benefits from a claimer it now appears. Mind you, her completeting has to be taken on trust.

    You need to go back to 1995 to find the last winner to carry more lead though.

    In 2006 the first 6 home all carried under 11st. Those that carried more finished
    7th, PU, PU, PU, PU.

    In 2005 it was even more brutal with the first 9 home carrying 10.6 or less. THose that carried 11st+ finished
    13th, last and PU

    In 2004 they fared slightly better, although the first 3 home all carried less than 11st, and those that carried the weight or more finished
    4th, 5th, 8th, PU

    2003 was a similar picture, again the first 3 carried less than 11st, with the four horses who carried 11st plus finishing
    4th, 7th, 11th, 14th

    2002 and 2001 were to some extent even more lop-sided than this years renewal, with Commanche Court being the only horse carrying 12st on both occasions, and forcing everything else under the 11st barrier or out of the handicap. Suffice to say in 2002 he PU, in 2001 came 5th, and in 2000 he won it off 11.4, and became the last horse to do so of a mark above 11st.

    Therefore the 11st+ barrier has

    1 win
    2 places (both 4th)
    10 unplaced
    7 failures to complete, all pulling up

    or to load it another way

    0 wins,
    2 places,
    17 unplaced,
    from 19 runs since 2001

    I kind of expect the winner to come from this Kings Advocate, A New Story, and Gazzas Girl group.

    Would a woman winning a National not be, 'A new Story'? norty
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  18. #18
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    I'm a Gazza's Girl fan but I also have a regard for Ferdy Murphy's Nine De Sivola. You might be interested to know that Bet365 offer fifth place to each-way punters.

  19. #19
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    Warbler is right. Ruby will win.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

  20. #20
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    PP are doing 5 places too.
    I'm on A New Story and Gazza's Girl both in double figs, e/w

    But feel guilty deserting my beloved Juvy, have backed him in every race so far - might have another for the race! - only if I don't back him he's sure to win at last so maybe I won't

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