Originally Posted by
wilsonl
Copied from my post on the Longshot thread...
I've landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.
He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.
So of the Dovecote runners...
West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137
That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.
The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.
His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.
He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.