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yorick

Monday 8th August 2022

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I have hopes for two today:

Firstly:

Ardamir - 5.25 Balinrobe - 13/3 Ew Win 13/2

Won that cosily, with very little fuss. Excellent and brings another profit for the day.

The favourite is Vado Forte but I'm wondering who would take 6/4 on this ground when all wins have been on sft or g/sft?

Ardamir is 10yo, sure, and although he'd looked regressive recently, the bare form's not the whole story.

Only two hurdle runs this term: one over 2m4f - too far and the other his first run for 274 days. Last season his mark was much higher than today, with marks of 120+: July 3rd, for instance, over 2m (Towards rear, pushed along and some headway into midfield before 2 out, switched right approaching last, kept on run-in, never near to challenge).

His most recent run was over his preferred 2m off a mark of 106 - much reduced - and he ran well (Towards rear, good headway from 3 out, prominent 2 out, pushed along disputing second last, soon ridden and outpaced, ran on well towards finish).

Off the same mark today on a c/d he's won over (off 122), surely the 13/2 in a 6-runner race is just far to generous.

One more:

Blazon - 4.00 Kempton - 6/1 Ew Unpl.

This was a race run at a funereal pace and Blazon never had the toe to get involved; was just chopped for speed in the dash for home. Shame. With a proper pace, I think he would've gone close. Ho hum
.

Blew out lto but that, tbf, was on the turf when this one, it appears, much prefers the cat litter. Indeed, given this race is poor and many have questions hanging over them, the 6/1, doable ew, must be a bet.

He's a c/d winner and the current 64 OR is feasable, I think. The profile of the horses he's raced against (and beaten in some cases): Murau, Caldwell, Author's Dream, Single looks better than this lot.

Trainer Bailey has a good track record (4-22, £16+) and had a winner with his last flat runner so I have every reason to feel I'm in with a good chance.

2 x Ew singles
Ew Double



Good luck

Updated 8th August 2022 at 9:03 PM by yorick

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Comments

  1. Monkey's Avatar
    Another winner. Well done.
  2. yorick's Avatar
    Thanks, Monkey.

    Was backed at the off, wasn't it? 7/2 SP!.

    Yup, almost daily winners from few bets - that's the way I like it.

    Mind you, on the forum, it's like I don't exist; no comments, nothing. Regularly, over the last 10 days put winners up on the 'Waht are you backing today?' thread and I might as well be whistling up my arse for all the reaction it gets, lol.

    Here on my blog,too. Regularly over 100 views but you and Outsider are the only ones that care to share.

    Anyway, thanks again for your comments, my man.
    Updated 8th August 2022 at 8:59 PM by yorick
  3. Monkey's Avatar
    That's a shame. I am usually at work when you post, so I get to kick myself after the event when I see you tipped a winner.
    I reckon everyone who shares justified tips deserves a thank you - doing the form is hard work.

    Do you know if you're in front, long term?
  4. barjon's Avatar
    Hey, yorick

    Always read your stuff with interest and a bit remiss not to have said so before.
  5. yorick's Avatar
    Good morning MonkeyBar,

    A beautiful sunny morning here in Norwich.

    Thanks for your comments, lads.

    I know what you mean about 'stalking' lol but for me, a forum is just that: a chance to share stuff with others who enjoy this fantastic sport. So, acknowledgements, yes, but also opinions about how horses might run or have run are all part of what I enjoy. Me and Outsider have shared our thoughts about this kind of stuff for years now and it is just good to have that bond.

    It doesn't even need to be particularly specific - about form and form study but could be about races that we've seen. For instance, that bloody 3.30 yesterday, where I put up Kind Gesture.

    I know what you mean, Monkey. I'm on holiday from work at present so have the absolute luxury of being able to properly study and post. Back to work next Tuesday so things will be more difficult then.

    To answer the 'long term' question: I, like Outsider bet for small stakes. for me the mantra is small stakes, better returns. I think, really, that most punters are liars to themselves and others. I think it's really important to know, accurately, whether I'm beating the 'Auld Enemy' or not.

    So good, then that my bookie - 365- (the only one I use) can tell me my 'activity' over the last week, month, year and I'm happy to report that, at present, over the last year I have made more than I have lost; I'm in profit! That, to me. is the holy grail. In all truth, there's not many who could claim that. So bully for me lol. I will admit that this past month has been a bit of a bonanza, mind, probably due to the consistent fast ground and having time to properly study.

    Anyway, thanks for getting in touch. I'm having a look at the day's racing now but it doesn't look up to much, at first glance, does it?

    Cheers.
    Updated 11th August 2022 at 2:00 PM by yorick
  6. 2017diary's Avatar
    Good luck today Yorick, keep out of the sun.
  7. yorick's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary
    Good luck today Yorick, keep out of the sun.
    Cheers, old boy.

    I'm afariad I seem to be in a minority in the Uk; I love the sun - hotter the better lol.