Monday 8th August 2022
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, 8th August 2022 at 10:40 AM (1191 Views)
I have hopes for two today:
Firstly:
Ardamir - 5.25 Balinrobe - 13/3 Ew Win 13/2
Won that cosily, with very little fuss. Excellent and brings another profit for the day.
The favourite is Vado Forte but I'm wondering who would take 6/4 on this ground when all wins have been on sft or g/sft?
Ardamir is 10yo, sure, and although he'd looked regressive recently, the bare form's not the whole story.
Only two hurdle runs this term: one over 2m4f - too far and the other his first run for 274 days. Last season his mark was much higher than today, with marks of 120+: July 3rd, for instance, over 2m (Towards rear, pushed along and some headway into midfield before 2 out, switched right approaching last, kept on run-in, never near to challenge).
His most recent run was over his preferred 2m off a mark of 106 - much reduced - and he ran well (Towards rear, good headway from 3 out, prominent 2 out, pushed along disputing second last, soon ridden and outpaced, ran on well towards finish).
Off the same mark today on a c/d he's won over (off 122), surely the 13/2 in a 6-runner race is just far to generous.
One more:
Blazon - 4.00 Kempton - 6/1 Ew Unpl.
This was a race run at a funereal pace and Blazon never had the toe to get involved; was just chopped for speed in the dash for home. Shame. With a proper pace, I think he would've gone close. Ho hum.
Blew out lto but that, tbf, was on the turf when this one, it appears, much prefers the cat litter. Indeed, given this race is poor and many have questions hanging over them, the 6/1, doable ew, must be a bet.
He's a c/d winner and the current 64 OR is feasable, I think. The profile of the horses he's raced against (and beaten in some cases): Murau, Caldwell, Author's Dream, Single looks better than this lot.
Trainer Bailey has a good track record (4-22, £16+) and had a winner with his last flat runner so I have every reason to feel I'm in with a good chance.
2 x Ew singles
Ew Double
Good luck