Marb

I had to go back to the drawing board after School Boy Hours wasn't declared earlier. I think the Ultima Chase is a very open race. I mentioned Tea Clipper on this forum after he won his novice chase this season. This came after an excellent season last season when he placed in a couple of high grade handicap hurdles, such as the Coral Cup at this meeting last season.

When you look at his overall profile it is clear he was game as a pebble over hurdles as he never really ran a really bad race, winning his fair share of races along the way. So given all this, I think he needs forgiving for a couple of below par novice chase runs at the end of last season. I figure something was definately amiss.

Fast forward the past three months where he hasn't been seen on a track, he is surely an interesting runner in the Ultima Chase, after a wind operation and with his tongue tied.

He could be very well handicapped over fences if you take into account his form over hurdles. It's not often I would forgive a horse his last run, but it was too bad to be true and perhaps the wind operation has helped him. He is my main selection in the big handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.

I have a bet on School Boy Hours E/W(Non Runner, Not declared). in the Ultima as he improved on better ground over 3M+ the last day when winning a big handicap chase in Ireland, but according to Noel Meade he might be saved for the Irish Grand National, although they haven't made a final decision yet.

Eclair D'ainay E/W (Non Runner, not confirmed) is a horse I like. Hopefully he will turn up in the grand annual off 145 and find some improvement on the day. Soft ground would be ideal for Eclair D'ainay. He has won in his career three times on soft ground. His form with Frero Banbou is rock solid.

Both of the above bets were not NRNB.

I found the debate the other day about Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo interesting. I see Dinoblue could run next weekend. Is it time to back her for the Mares Novice Hurdle?

I was also looking at Metier E/W (Non Runner, Coral Cup, not confirmed). There was an interesting quote after his Lingfield win from Harry Fry about possibly stepping Metier up in trip especially if the going was better.

That got me considering if Metier is worth a punt NRNB for the Coral Cup.

Hills are best price on the NRNB at 16s and with the Betfair Hurdle coming up soon I see a Metier a bet at 16s for the Coral Cup as my next probable investment.

Even If he ran in the top six in the Betfair he could still be stepped up for a race like the Coral Cup and run well on the day.

Oh finally still waiting for news on Phoenix Way's potential target from Harry Fry. I want him on side for Cheltenham. Although he does have an entry in both the Coral Handicap Chase at Kempton in February and the Grand National. He is such a promisimg horse and beating Fanion D'estruval the last day is really good form but I wonder if they might swerve Cheltenham this year altogether.

EDITED 13/2/2022

Glory and Fortune franked Epatante's Christmas Hurdle form nicely in the Betfair Hurdle yesterday.

When you look at Epatante's E/W overall form, while she doesn't have Honeysuckle's unbeaten record, she's still only an 8 year old and has an excellent win and place record. I think she is pretty bombproof for an each way bet. Right now I feel Epatante each way is the right bet in the race, while an each way saver on Tommy's Oscar is also possible at around 25/1.

I liked Shan Blue E/W when he won the feltham on boxing day as a novice chaser when beating Fiddlerontheroof. He looked to be the fulfilling all that promise and more when about to romp home in the Charlie Hall until falling at the second last. Fair play to Dan Skelton and connections for keeping him off the track since then, as it was a horrible fall.

While Allaho looks a banker to many I am happy to back Shan Blue each way as in a similar way to Epatante I feel he is a bankable each way proposition, admittedly he needs to get round in one piece with a good round of jumping. Apart from that I cannot see him out the first three places.

I had a look at the Cross Country Chase and Shady Operator looks most appealing at the prices at the moment. He ran a good second place to a stablemate recently at Punchestown and that should put him spot on for a crack at the festival next month.

The Gold Cup is an intriguing race for sure. A Plus Tard was so impressive at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. His next run over Christmas wasn't as good. He is clearly a very classy horse but I am not convinced after his run when beaten by Galvin.

Galvin is some horse in his own right and he has been doing everything right this season impressing a lot of people along the way. He runs in the Gold Cup with major claims, although its his stablemate Conflated who has shown some major improvement the last day at the Dublin Racing Festival.

He showed bits and pieces of good form over 2M4F but must have been in good form at home and Conflated took the step up to 3M in graded company firmly in his stride when pulling half a dozen lengths clear of Minella Indo at Leopardstown. He is a fair price and in a fascinating Gold Cup to try and solve he poses a threat to all now they have found the key to him and have him in such good form.

Celebre D'Allen who won last Saturday on his first chase start in England when quickening up well is now 6/1 anti post fav for the Paddy Power Plate.

While Cheddlton is not a horse to back to win in a class two race he is a very good yardstick with form with Frero Banbou and Eclair D'ainay.

Celebre D'allen had some excellent form in France aswell before coming over here and.joining Phillip Hobbs.

He has got hurdles form too but you'd think they will run over fences again next time in a race like the Paddy Power Plate.

That 6/1 for the Plate is worth taking non runner no bet.

Edited 2/3/2022

I have had a look at the Pertemps and one improved horse worth a second look is Risk and Roll. (Non Runner, Not Confirmed). He has changed hands between different trainers a few times but now with James Evans his last two runs in handicap hurdles have been very good runs.

Firstly when springing a surprise by winning at 33/1 at Huntingdon and then a good fourth, (finished third but demoted to fourth) in what looked a good handicap hurdle at Newbury the last day. Risk and Roll is declared to run at Newbury this Friday, and I advocate taking the price now for the pertemps in the event he wins on Friday and so shortens up for the festival.

In the County Hurdle after some consideration I have decided I like the look of Colonel Mustard. He is trained in Ireland but not with one of the more fashionable and established stables.

He has some excellent novice hurdle form including behind Echoes In Rain, Jonbon and also when placing behind Sir Gerard the last day. The County Hurdle could be this horses first go in a handicap hurdle and with some natural improvement on his excellent novice hurdle form he can run really well in a handicap hurdle on a mark in the 140's.

He has never really ran a bad race over hurdles and a so he is a genuine consistent type that I definately want on side for Cheltenham. He does have an entry in the Coral Cup too which would be a step up in trip but I will keep an eye on what race he goes for.

Edited 5/3/2022

Well I have been trawling through the form for the handicaps at Cheltenham as these are the races I love to have a bet in.

After Metier disappointed today I have reassessed the Coral Cup and the one that really is catching my eye with only this single entry is Mcfabulous. His hurdle form from a year or two ago oozes class and he has been dropped a few pounds in the ratings just in time for a crack at this prestigous handicap hurdle. I have put a line through his last run and I reckon Paul Nicholls and ditchheat will have him ready to roll in this race where a big field should be to his liking. He is my main bet now in the Coral Cup.

Remastered was so unlucky in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase this season when falling at the business end of the race. He is on a really exploitable hurdle mark and now switching back to the smaller obstacles I reckon he will run really well in the Pertemps.

I was reading an article by former forumite David Johnson on the Sporting Life where he warns against backing out of form horses who are now sliding down the ratings, in favour of 'improving horses' that may be well ahead of their mark. While I respect David Johnson a lot I will have to break this rule albeit for a handful of races, as Elegant Escape has some seriously good form, as when winning the Welsh National.

Elegant Escape has now dropped to a mark of just 140. If he hasn't lost a leg and Colin Tizzard can rejuvenate him then he's the best handicapped horse in this race by miles...pay your money and take your chance I say!

The Martin Pipe looks like an absolute mine field with loads of potential improvers lurking in the handicap but one trainer in Ireland I like a lot is Gavin Cromwell. He has entered Ilikedwayyourthinkin who I reckon is an interesting contender off his current hurdle mark. Hopefully by this race on the final day all my other fancies for the meeting have already won, so I will already be halfway to the Carribean on a private plane, but in any event Ilikedwayyourthinkin looks good each way value.

This may be my last blog post as I do not want to get drawn into having opinions on every race just for sake of it!

Good luck to all...god bless all the victims of this war in Ukraine. I have said my prayers for you!

Martin