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Outsider

Cheltenham 2022

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I love trying to work out hcaps I'm probably pissing in the wind trying to find a british winner.every year I say I'm not getting involved a/p but here I go again.at least I've pinched a few nice prices.whether or not they win is another matter.
Shantreusse 66/1 a.bart.
The jam man 33/1 pertemps
Silver sheen pertemps 66/1
On the ropes NH chase (not a hcap) 25/1.

And of course I did a treble on
Honeysuckle 3/1
Allaho 5/1
Flooring porter 6/1
I cant even remember putting the bet on.must have been just after Cheltenham last year.

my biggest bet is 9n EMPIRE STEEL nrnb 33/1 ,28/1,and 25s
On a line of form beating protekorol 41L as a novice he ought to have a chance off his revised mark.my only concern now is it's down to run on saturday at kelso.but looking back at its form it seems to have a month between races which would fit into Cheltenham.

I like Venitia William's runners in the Plate.her overall Cheltenham record isnt good but she seems to like this race.
I like her FARINET 25/1 but now her stable as a bit of a virus and shes entered it for a race on saturday.ffs.
Gordon Elliot and W.Mullins will have their usual amount of winners but how can you back a/p multiples when for instance Elliot has 17 in the m.pipe and Mullins has 15 in the county hurdle.
Tuesday morning of the festival is probably the best time to do multiples but I still try.

I really hope a couple of my big price ones get a run as I think they both have decent chances
UP FOR PAROL 50/1 corals/ladbrokes in the county.i thought this travelled like the winner in the Lanzarote until weakening.
Then over 2m3f he went for home and didnt see it out,therefore 2m in a fast run race should suit.
SILVER SHEEN pertemps.i expect Gordon will win it again but silver steel I think was fav last year after winning a qualifier at warwick off 130 but then got injured.he came back in two chases before going back hurdling.he didnt qualify in Ireland so came over to qualify in a race with 6 runners and was tailed off with Robbie coming over to ride it.races off 132 this year.of course because of it's bad run maybe they will give up on the idea but if it runs it has to have a chance imo.
I've took 66s and 40s and coral/Ladbroke still going 50s.
My first choice for the race of course is THE JAM MAN who will get in off off its mark.
The coral cup is tricky.the stats say Heaven help us and Dan's le vent cant win and low weights(all hendersons runners) dont do well.
I think I will wait a bit closer to the race but HHU did me a big turn last year and DLV is a horse I really like,I just wish Isobel wouldnt keep giving it too much to do.
SECRET REPRIEVE kim Muir if it gets in then it must have a serious chance.disappointed last especially and William's told the stewards that he couldnt explain it.well he couldnt say we were not trying so we could get another pound knocked off for the kim Muir.
On the first day I've done EDWARDSTONE 9/2 and TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL 4/1 in an ew double.
I've done JONBON win with skybet(money back if it loses)
and KILCRUIT 16/1 win.

Last year was a good year so I'm not confident this year.
Vanillier 40/1 a/p
Galopin des champs 25s yes 25s small stakes
heaven help us 33s were a few.
That's all for now.
Good luck
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  1. Outsider's Avatar
    I forgot
    BEN SIEGEL 33/1 bet365 boodles.
    I think this has an ew shout.won well but then got stuck in the mud and then had to run quickly to qualify again in bad ground.
    On better going he could be better than its mark of 131.
    Whether it can beat Slims GAELIC WARRIOR is another matter.but I'm hopeful.

    NR
    Updated 10th March 2022 at 9:08 PM by Outsider
  2. Outsider's Avatar
    Empire steel has been took out of the race at kelso.im so relieved.
  3. Outsider's Avatar
    FARINET was very disappointing yesterday and Venitia told the stewards that she had no explanation for the run.and the vet reported no abnormalities.
    It will be doubtful now it will get in the plate but if it does then at 33s I will stick with it.
    I was expecting it to be with the virus.intriguing.
  4. Outsider's Avatar
    As it's been pointed out on the forum,the greatwood form has been franked by so many,won by West cork and he could easily win the county but BUA BOY was having its first run since today at Leopardstown in a race it couldnt win at the weights and sauntered round for 3rd.
    Betfair pushed it out from 25s to 40s boosted to 45s and at that price I couldnt resist.
  5. Outsider's Avatar
    I've been looking at the coral cup and Good risk to all and st galien? Both look good but the one I like is GOWEL ROAD 16/1 coral.
    Dan Skelton is keen on unexpected party but gowel road beat him over c/d and is a stone better off.
    Nigel TD likes a festival winner.
    The stats says no more than 9 runs over hurdles and hes ran 9 times and 5/6 yr olds have the best record and hes 6.
  6. Outsider's Avatar
    I always like to look to see what could be a plot.ive got a suspicious mind.so I've took the chance on Paul Nicholls HACKER DES PLACES 33/1 for the county hurdle.
    He will probably need to win the Imperial cup first and then go for the bonus.
    When you look at its form,especially behind Metier then it could be well hcapped.
  7. Outsider's Avatar
    Ew Canadian I just place

    EMPIRE STEEL ultima 25/1 boosted to 28s
    GOWEL ROAD coral cup 14/1
    THE JAM MAN pertemps 12/1
    SECRET REPRIEVE kim Muir 20/1 boosted to 22s
    BUA BOY county 40/1 boosted to 45s
  8. Outsider's Avatar
    I'm feeling really depressed today.
    EMPIRE STEEL isnt running in the Ultima and BEN SIEGEL isnt running in the Boodles.
    Why do I bother.
    I thought ES was the ew bet of the week.
    They had been running it once a month which fitted in with Cheltenham and took it out of a race at kelso last week.
    Gutted.
  9. Outsider's Avatar
    The week keeps getting worse as the entries for Cheltenham come in.
    Farinet is out of the Plate but strangely is still in the Ultima.
    Secret reprieve has been taken out of the kim Muir.
    Heaven help us is hot in the coral cup and will probably run in the mares race and will make sure they all go.
    I'm having my biggest bet of the NH season (probably normal for most on here)
    Although the form of the Lanzarote isnt nothing special especially compared to the greatwood but I still think UP FOR PAROL will be better in a true run 2m rather than the longer distances.25/1 7 places w.hill I just cant see it not being in the first 3 let alone the first 7.ive had a little on at 33s first 3.
    If I dont profit from this tomorrow then no one will need to speak to me as I will be sat in a dark room with a box of tissues until Cheltenham.
  10. Outsider's Avatar
    Up for parol travels well and jumps well,normally.
    Today he did neither.backed into 14/1 . That was so disappointing.
  11. Outsider's Avatar
    I'm not going to let a disappointment stop me and keep trying.
    I backed Oscar elite for the ultima but it is 4lb out of the hcap but I'm not too concerned.think it will run a big race but I've also done DOCTOR DUFFY as I think 40/1 is too good to miss on its run behind Death duty and flouer.every chance when fell 2 out and that was over 3m 4f.
    In the kim Muir I'm intrigued to see Hendo run MISTER COFFEY with Sam Waley-Cohen on board.only run over 2m4f and it's a big step up in trip but sired by Authorize who is the sire of Tiger Roll.Hendo/SamWC won this race twice a few years ago.round about 14s.
    In the county i will have to do FIRST STREET again after backing it in the betfair where he got shuffled back but ran on well.16/1.
    Be good to see wednesdays decs tomorrow and see what's running.i do think Saint felicien is interesting.
    Updated 14th March 2022 at 3:09 AM by Outsider
  12. Outsider's Avatar
    Ew Canadian for the week.
    Saint felicien coral cup
    Mister coffey kim Muir
    Frero banbou grand annual
    First street county
    The jam man pertemps

    Good luck for the week lads and lassies and those whose not sure.
  13. Outsider's Avatar
    Now the decs are out for the coral cup I have to do my old favourite MAZE RUNNER 33/1 7 places.races prominently and stays 3m.
    On the hcap thread I put my feelings for the boodles and backed 3 outsiders and one of them PRAIRIE DANCER has been backed from 33s into 20s for Joseph O'Brien.
    Two races ago it ran 3rd in a hcap against older horses which I like to see.
    Hasnt won a race yet whereas all previous winners had.
  14. Outsider's Avatar
    Just remembered my original fancy BEN SIEGEL (broke a blood vessel last time.)BS beat Prairie dancer 4.5L and PD would have been 5lb better.
  15. Outsider's Avatar
    Hendo has started well and I hope he keeps it up.ive had a little bet on

    Call my lord 28/1
    I am maximus 14/1
    Pistol whipped 28/1
    Chantry house 16/1
    Mister coffey 14/1
    First street 14/1
    Come on Hendo.

    I've had a look at the trends for the grand annual and I think
    For pleasure is overpriced at 25/1.
  16. barjon's Avatar
    You forgot Dusart

    I am Maximus intrigues me because Hendo is pitching him in against horses with much higher ratings so he must think his rating is much too low. Yet he is not taking advantage of that in the Coral? Got to think he’s in with a good chance.
  17. barjon's Avatar
    Oh, I’ve got the answer - he wouldn’t have made the cut in the Coral says Hendo
  18. Outsider's Avatar
    Yes Barjon but it deserved to take its chance on its 2nd to hillcrest looked good,but this going probably didnt suit.

    When I did an ante post canadian which must had been just after Cheltenham I did Dysart for the Arkle.the bet is down but I had shishkin at 9/2.
  19. Outsider's Avatar
    I'm getting a bit excited now about MAZE RUNNER now the going is very soft.
    Won over 3m in heavy.
  20. Outsider's Avatar
    Well it didnt go to plan but a distant 5th for Maze runner so a nice profit.
    Gowel road was 7th and dan le vent was 10th.
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