2000 Guineas Day

barjon

barjon

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It’s come around once more and if you can see past City of Troy this time I’d be amazed. He might not have trained on, there might be something to jump out of the woodwork, there might be a disaster in running. There might be…………. Anything is possible, I suppose, but I doubt it - he’ll win.

For the rest I was quite taken with Dutch Decoy (2:20) last time at Newmarket when I thought he should have won. He had to delay his challenge stuck behind horses, went down by a nose and was ahead one stride past the post. This one is a tougher assignment, though.

Otherwise it’s pretty much a guessing game and really just notebook time. Some old friends out in the 1:45 and it will be interesting see how Noble Style goes since he is the proverbial Group horse in a handicap. I’ll also keep an eye on Rabaah in that one, as well as Alyanaabi (Guineas) and Rowayeh(5:15). I always take note of Shadwell horses since you can be sure they kept hold of the good ones after the dispersal, although that is probably wearing a bit thin now.

Euro mentioned Indivar in the flatties thread so must keep an eye on that one and see how the market goes.

Little interest elsewhere.
 
barjon said:
It’s come around once more and if you can see past City of Troy this time I’d be amazed. He might not have trained on, there might be something to jump out of the woodwork, there might be a disaster in running. There might be…………. Anything is possible, I suppose, but I doubt it - he’ll win.

For the rest I was quite taken with Dutch Decoy (2:20) last time at Newmarket when I thought he should have won. He had to delay his challenge stuck behind horses, went down by a nose and was ahead one stride past the post. This one is a tougher assignment, though.

Otherwise it’s pretty much a guessing game and really just notebook time. Some old friends out in the 1:45 and it will be interesting see how Noble Style goes since he is the proverbial Group horse in a handicap. I’ll also keep an eye on Rabaah in that one, as well as Alyanaabi (Guineas) and Rowayeh(5:15). I always take note of Shadwell horses since you can be sure they kept hold of the good ones after the dispersal, although that is probably wearing a bit thin now.

Euro mentioned Indivar in the flatties thread so must keep an eye on that one and see how the market goes.

Little interest elsewhere.
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With you on DD,though he might be drawn the wrong side for the pace.
My strongest bet will be on Silent Words in the opener,which Danny Tudhope prefers to (ostensibly) a fitter horse for yhe same retainer.
 
I've seen them win, I've seen them get beat.

What they did at two doesn't actually mean a lot when the wfa scale tells you they improve the best part of a stone "on average" between the Dewhurst and today.

And the operative word is "average" - enormous fluctuations between individual horses.

They say he's flying at home, but then they would say that, wouldn't they?

I've heard it all before - so many times.

And some people yearn for that next "superstar" just a little bit too much and can't handle the credentials of an odds-on favourite rightly being put under the microscope by calmer, more value-driven, punters.

He's not the biggest and, from an admittedly-small sample size so far, Justify has had more success with 2yos than 3yos.

I'm lucky enough to be on at double-digit odds - nothing clever, I just got told he was the business before the Superlative - and I also took 20/1 Rosallion (though he's a Blue Point and not 100% sure to stay) last year.

Bet a couple of non runners too before anyone says "aftertimer."

Anyway, though Rosallion apparently pulverises him at home, and the fav crucified him twice last year, Haatam is the only one in the field who has actually shown at pattern level he's trained on so far and 33s after the Craven was about double the odds he ought to be.

Great race - first remember Try My Best finishing last to Blue Riband Trail winner (after IIRC being beaten at Thirsk first time out! Different world, then, they even had a minor Classic trial at Stockton) Roland Gardens, which isn't the best omen for City Of Troy.

And I first attended in 1982 and had a couple of student quid on Zino and the much-maligned Freddie Head.

It's 2,000 Guineas Day!

Enjoy.
 
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Very true, Ian, but they’ve got to improve by half a stone just to catch him up! By all reports he has been knocking them dead at home - but APO is never shy at talking them up - so it all looks as good as it can be. Wish I had your ticket.
 
Because they are in the business of making stallions. I looked at them in the paddock and backed the winner late on (sadly I should have backed it a second time with the drift)
This is a proper Guineas winner and even pricking his ears at the line.
 
Even though I had the price ante-post, his size and sire gave me cause for concerns plus a friend who was there sent me a video clip of him in the pre-parade ring and he didn't seem to have grown.

Rosallion and Haatem ran well for me and I connived a tiny profit by laying the winner short then backing him back.

Fascinating renewal as always.
 
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Was confident the 2nd would stick it up to the fav. He's been beaten by a good one. Travelled like a dream. Proper miler.
 
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