Absolutely mate. The National is ultimately a lottery though, and will hopefully be an afterthought, after he hacks up hard-held next week at Kempton. He's won at Market Rasen so going right handed is not a problem. I'd see anything more than about 6/1 an absolute gift. I hope connections do the right thing by punters and run him at Kempton. We need these good things to keep us afloat!
Last edited by Marb; 15th February 2018 at 9:05 PM.
I've never understood this view of the National, I have to say.Originally Posted by Marble
Occasionally there is a surprise result but you can say that of the history of nearly every race.
The National, like the Hennessy or County Hurdle, is usually won by a very well-handicapped horse.
Illegitimi non carborundum
That's true; but it's also won by a well handicapped horse that has had luck in running. I've realised that since reading my Go Down to the Beaten book.
Yes that's what I meant, Moe. E.G you need a lot less luck in running, also a lot less likely to be taken out by a loose horse etc, running over 3M at Kempton than Aintree, surely?
Last edited by Marb; 15th February 2018 at 11:18 PM.
Yes, of course, but it's still far from a lottery.
It's arguably the easiest big handicap of the year of which to find the winner.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Grasshopper (16th February 2018)
Used to be; alas, this is the first year I can remember that I haven't got a clue about which horse could win it. I've found it progressively more difficult over the last few years.
I dispute this, to be honest.
If you fire a single arrow at the National, you might be on the best horse in the race, but your bet is in the laps of the Gods. If you fire multiple arrows - as you have confessed to do in the race - it becomes exponentially less difficult, the more arrows you fire.
Any way I look at it, the National is still a hard race to win in, if you adopt a very strong position, and back only one horse. Indeed, most every race becomes easy to figure out, if you cover 15%+ of the field, but your ROI will generally take a pasting.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Really???.....The Grand National 100/1 66/1 33/1 33/1 25/1 25/1 all the the last few years
The Betfair Hurdle only one horse Splash of Ginger over 20/1 in 10 years and the Hennessy the same.
You obviously never checked before making such a ridiculous statement.............Hands up anyone who has picked more than 3 winners from only 3 selections of the National in their life
Most punters back 5 or 6 and still don't get the winner
Formely Fist of Fury
Whilst I'd agree with Grassy's points about finding the winner I would still say it is a punter friendly race. I think you could normally rack up a decent shortlist of horses at decent prices and backing a few e/w with the various place terms on offer you stand more than a fair chance of making a profit without backing the winner and if you do get the winner then its a bonus.
And for all people would say it was a lottery there have been some fair old proper gambles landed with the likes of Papillion and Bobbyjo amongst others down the years that suggests that to some people its not as much of a guessing game as you'd think.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Pretty sure Agrapart won the Betfair at 20/1.
Bet 365 make the National a very punter friendly race with arguably the bookie offer of the year. Getting 50% of your total stake returned no matter what means you can back 5 and still turn a profit if just one places. It’s very rare I have an ante post bet on the race these days as the horse would have to halve in odds for me to get value.
But yes, finding the winner in a 40 field handicap over 4 miles is rather difficult.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For Joe Public, who are only looking for an interest bet, it remains a complete lottery of a race.
We will all of us have been there. On the days leading up to the big race, our friends and family - knowing our interest in the sport - will routinely ask us via Facebook/text/whatever, to give them a horse for the National. You try giving them half a dozen horses with a staking-plan attached, and see how far you get. They want one horse only, and if it doesn't win, you're basically a muppet/loser as far as they're concerned.
I agree that judicious selection of multiple horses can generate profit on the race. Usually, you can narrow it down to a half-dozen or so with a real chance, and hope that you get the breaks. If you do, then landing the winner is certainly achievable. But it's not really 'picking the winner' in the classic sense - not in my book, at any rate. It's more like astute tank-management to me.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 16th February 2018 at 10:13 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I'd agree Grasshopper, a friend of mine regularly backs umpteen horses in big handicaps, for example I reckon he backed between 8 and 10 horses in the Bet Victor Gold cup back in November!
I regularly back that many horses in big handicaps - especially at the festival. I haven't had a losing festival since I started working this way, whereas previously throwing 1 or maybe 2 arrers at it inevitably ended with me losing my dough and repeating the phrase "I was thinking about backing that one".
I agree almost entirely with this view, GH.
However, this is a racing forum for enthusiasts and serious students, not to mention owners and part-owners. We aren't Joe Public. My assertion is made in that context.
If the market value dictates that it makes sound sense for me to back two, three or even four in a 10-12-runner handicap on a Saturday then the same sense applies when tackling the National.
In the National, for me it's as important to dismiss the chances of short-shots - if there is such a thing in the National - as it is to find a value longshot. Without having studied the form yet, for example, my initial instinct is to dismiss Blaklion as being badly handicapped for the race. Possibly Total Recall as well. That's the two market leaders out straight away (although I will allow myself a change of mind once I've assessed the group likely to make the cut and once the form of the next few weeks kicks in).
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th February 2018 at 11:13 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Understood, DO.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Then, of course, they're running over a distance greater than most of them have ever ran before and that eliminates a lot of them. Oh for the days when lots of them were running from out of the handicap and horses carrying more than 11st didn't win [sigh].
Whatever works for you Simmo, I'll do 2 or maximum 3 in the handicaps and if I can make a case for half the field I just don't bet in the race.
My lightbulb moment with regards to the Festival was changing the way I bet, used to be win only but changed so anything at 6/1 or higher was backed each way, this made a huge difference personally.
That's exactly my approach Darren. The Championship races I nail my colours to the mast and might add one each way if I see some value. In the handicaps I back two or three each way. I've no interest in backing anything in the handicaps that I can't get at an each way price. A lot of hard work and this approach has served me very well.
I'd love to see a list of every winner people have had in the National.
I know my first go I backed 3 horses EW Freddie The Fossa and Forest Price and they finished 2nd 3rd and 4th to Jay Trump.
Despite backing a host of horses each year I had to wait 5 years for my first winner Gay Trip.
Then another 11 years to my nest winner Aldaniti
8 years later Rhyme and Reason
2 years later Mr Frisk
Then amazingly I back Red Marauder Smarty Blowing Wind and Beau who would definitely have finished in the first 4 but for being the last horse to fall when leading....
9 years later Don't Push It
6 Winners in 47 years ......Good Average I would say about the norm
Last edited by Tanlic; 16th February 2018 at 6:41 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
Dutch Schultz made a fortune doing that......hence the name dutching. Have done it several times myself at the Chelt festival but the flat I find near impossible in big handicaps
Formely Fist of Fury
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