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Thread: Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

  1. #21
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    Fair point.

    Pity as I reckon Hell's Kitchen has more ability than we've seen to date and he's currently on 145 which is the ceiling for the Novice handicap on the first date - in which I'd give him a great chance - but I see Fry has entered him in a couple of handicaps at Leopardstown over this weekend and if he runs well it could see him handicapped out of it.

    But then again they're both open company; one a Grade A and another Grade B; and JP has a host of entries so even if he does run maybe he'll run sufficiently badly enough to leave his BHA OR alone.
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    I thought as I'd posed a bit of a question to Double J about a horse called Mohaayed a few days back about what rating you would give him, that it was pretty unfair as I don't really have an answer myself other than I know he has a fair bit in hand. Not being one to give advice as I'm not too far removed from the kid who thought backing the first favourite at Bloemfontein was the next big thing I thought if I could translate some of the workings into words along with some other bits and bobs there might at least be a useful point or two and if it highlights a well handicapped horse for the festival then so be it.

    The first thing that will grab your attention when looking at (going to call him Mo for ease) Mo is that he's been done by Irish Roe last time out and that one has been raised significantly since. I'll use this as the primary line of form to highlight his chances. The basic premise is that he's narrowly been defeated (for now we'll take the Jockeys claim into account) conceding 4lb to a horse who after just one more run is rated in the mid 140's and he's rated 139 still. The form has been franked as they say. It might well be franked again when Amour De Nuit runs in the Scottish County Hurdle this weekend. This is the sort of thing Joe public will pick up on and its an easy enough point of view that your average Morning line pundit can roll it the viewers without thinking and sound like that they are in the know. Joe public might get lucky this weekend with regards Amour de nuit as I'd picked up on this line of form weeks ago but Amour De nuit was not a horse I'd have been following from it.

    Its always important to watch the replays when taking a view and try to make a more informed judgement of the collateral lines. Amour de nuit travelled very strongly in the race too keen by far and found little in a finish. These sort of horses I tend to avoid as more often than not they don't pay. However from my days of dabbling in the dark arts (speed figures) and it was only dabbling so not an area I'm strong in I seem to recall that Musselburgh was one of the fastest hurdle courses in the country. I recall thinking that if you ever had a horse who you thought may be suited to a 1m6f hurdle then Musselburgh was probably your best hope. So perhaps he sends it here and along with the Irish roe form and the "Paul Nicholls doesn't go to Scotland for the battered Mars bars" type opinions then he could be a popular winner but I wouldn't expect too much of a price. The only reason I point this out is that I won't be doing cartwheels if he wins nor will I be reaching for the shotgun if he gets beaten out of sight. It is important to always take a balanced view of collateral form lines working out, don't get carried away with good ones and don't get too despondent with the bad.

    A closer look at Mo's performance tells you he was probably a bit unlucky to get beat against Irish roe. He's got the last 3 hurdles wrong and made a complete mess of one of those. He was making rapid headway at the finish and in another yard or so would have caught the well handicapped filly. Horses that hurdle badly can and generally do hurdle badly again however in this instance I'm prepared to cut the horse a bit of slack. It was the first time he'd been ridden by claimer Bridget Andrews and the worst he's jumped. He seemed to jump a lot better at Kempton next time when back under his regular pilot. So potentially if he'd cleared the last 3 hurdles better then he'd have beaten Irish Roe conceding 4lbs. Taking into account that Irish roe given age and experience could be improving from race to race anyway but then the same could be said for Mo. So a horse that could have beaten Irish Roe conceding 4lbs and she's now rated 144 after just one more run could give you an approximate figure of 149 which would be 10lb in hand of his current mark of 139. That's approximate and still allowing for Bridgets claim being worthwhile where as you could on this occasion have taken it as a penalty. Also the way he finished could suggest that on a stiffer track like Cheltenham and perhaps a stronger pace he'd be worth a little more.

    To work from one line of form is always dangerous/insane so its always best to look for secondary lines that back the opinion up. For this we'll use the Christmas Hurdle. Straight away the lazy will utter the words of flattered by proximity which will always be a case when a low rated animal take on higher rated animals in a small field and very often it can be the case but its always best to take a closer look. As I haven't actually worked this out yet and I'm thinking as I type I'm not sure if it will actually work out well or not but we'll give it a go.

    I'll just for now use a 1lb per length ratio to try and glean some sort of idea. There is somewhere a universal guide to weight to lengths and from memory its either 0.9 or 1.1lb but I laugh at such things. Whilst having a rule of thumb to work to is a must to suggest its an accurate science is fairly ridiculous in my eyes. I dare say some will disagree but to me it can only ever be a ball park area of judgment. To anyone who disagrees or try's to convince you that it is the "law" I'd simply take a step back and apply a bit of common sense. I always look at things like this. If Eddie Halls and Louis Theroux were asked to carry a certain weight a certain distance would it have an equal effect ? Of course not. So why should things be different when dealing with horses. Some horses are your Eddie Halls ( Denman, Kingscliff ) and some your Louis Theroux's or Ronnie Corbett might have been more apt ( Lady Rebecca, Dom samuri ) its simply can't be an exact science. The same as carrying weight in bad ground. Carry a bag of cement 50 yards on a concrete floor and then try and carry it through wet sand or mud. That's before we even get into the weight of the jockey v's the saddle weights issue. We need that rule of thumb to work to but I'm not to sure of its value in reality but its narrowly favourable to pondering the imponderables until the dawn of time. If anyone is still certain that its a rock solid thing then take an even wider view that in reality we are 6 billion talking monkeys on a spinning rock in an infinite mass of nothingness discussing which horse can run fastest around a track. How certain can we be of anything ? Some days I'm not sure even that I exist and that I'm not just a hallucination of some young lady's magic mushroom fuelled fantasy...erm back to handicapping then.

    How mo fared in the Christmas Hurdle.

    Beaten 6L by 169 rated Boover brings him out at 163
    Beaten 4L by 163 rated The new one brings him out at 159
    Beat 146 Rated Chesterfield 4L brings him out at 150.

    Hurrah! The biggest certainty ever seen in the county hurdle..yeah not that simple is it. Boover won as he liked so no point trying to take a rating from him. Chesterfield is probably better on better ground and had only run 7 days earlier so I don't like rating through him. The new one however was flat out and can be used as a reliable yardstick however he certainly hasn't run up to his official rating here and has certainly run below par the question being, by how much?. If we look at the New ones other efforts this season and see if we can get some sort of idea of where he is at.

    I'd probably start with his most recent outing in the Champion hurdle trial he's conceded 6lb to 156 rated Ch'tibello and narrowly got the better of him in the final strides (it still hurts). That brings him out quite high but taking a more realistic view from Unison back in third I have him coming out at around 152 which I'm far more comfortable with.

    In the international at Cheltenham you could come up with all sorts of ratings through various horses but its notable that given Ch'tibello raced off the same terms and given he was beaten slightly further but hampered then you could take it they've run to exactly the same level and I'd be happy to suggest given the bunched finish and lack of pace making any rating suspect that I'd happily go with a mark in the low 150's again.

    His Welsh Champion hurdle conceding 8lb to 147 rated Clyne brings him out at 155. I'm actually likely to think this run was a lot better than that and I think Clyne has run his absolute socks off to the point where it broke him as he hasn't gone a yard since however I'll settle for 155.

    The New ones run in the Greatwood you'd be hard pushed to say he hasn't run right up to his mark. Given the winner and the second there bagged the Golden highway and its probably flattered them both. Old guard in 3rd is as reliable yard stick as one could wish for and TNO has gone down to him narrowly conceding lumps. I'm not looking for his best performance though I'm in search of his worst.

    If we said that looking through that lot The New one has been 152 at worst and adjust his mark at Kempton to that then we could rate Mo' at 148 not to far removed from what I had him at after the Irish roe run. Flattered by that ?...hardly!. If you then watched the replays of the Christmas hurdle if anything was flattered by proximities it certainly wasn't Mo. The race was run at a quick, slow, quick tempo in the way that the New one has set off at a gallop slowed it up before trying to kick for home off the front end. The worst thing that you can do in these situations is let the leader snatch a couple of lengths whilst you get caught napping as the ground is difficult to make back up. This is what happened with mo' although in fairness there was never really any intention of making an effort to win the race. He was there to race for third pick up 12k and hopefully not finish too close to the big boys as to get whacked by the handicapper. Plan executed brilliantly by the jockey. Evidence of this when the New one started to run flat out out Mo's jockey sat still keeping an eye on Chesterfield. When he did finally consent to show a bit of effort in the saddle Mo' put Chesterfield away quite easily and as he jumped the last the jockey has a cheeky look over his shoulder to see Chesterfield is beat and then eases down. If anything after watching this a couple of times I think it more than likely points to him having a stone up his sleeve but I'll settle for my magic number of 10lb.

    In terms of ever sizing one up for Cheltenham its always nice too see course form and spring form. He was beat 3 lengths off a few lb's lower than he is now in last years County. Some might say if he couldn't win last year why can he win off a higher mark now? Well quite simply he was a novice of very few runs last year and being thrown into the carnage of a Cheltenham handicap is a baptism of fire. With that and his run in the Scottish Champion hurdle making him less wet behind the ears now, it offers hope and also that still a young horse on the up, should be and looks as if he's going to be a very progressive type.

    I've included him in some small multi's for the festival thus far and nothing really serious as although I've done quite a write up on him he's not a standout by any means. I'd find horses that I think are well handicapped every day and I dare say I could find another 10 to make a case for in the County itself. I've just really posted the thought process for someone like Double J or anyone of even less experience to have a look at and see if there is anything they can take from it. More to the point if any one fancies giving me a pointer as to anything I'm getting insanely wrong then they are more than welcome. There will always be different workings for everyone as to a horses mark and as said I don't think its an exact science but if you can identify 33/1 shots that you think are potentially well handicapped then I don't think you can go too far wrong. I like the Bruce Lee theory of "concentrate on the finger and you'll miss all the heavenly glory". In others words peoples views on the details of the workings will vary but I think anyone would find it hard to go against the view that the, "Heavenly Glory" in this case is that Mohaayed is potentially very well handicapped and available at a decent price somewhere soon.

    That's the best I can manage through the misty night shift fog of a sleep deprived mind but to any beginners out there.. come handicapping ! It certainly beats trying to fathom graded races and trying to decipher the Di Mullins code .
    Last edited by Danny; 1st February 2018 at 5:38 PM.
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  4. #23
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    There's definitely something afoot with Mohaayed.

    I'd backed him for the Greatwood and everything went wrong. Firstly it started pissing down in the 48 hours before the race so I was sure he'd be scratched but no, Skelton ran him anyway on ground he was certain to dislike.

    Then when it was blatantly obvious to the world and their wife that the outer was the place to be brother Skelton gave him a less than arduous ride on the inner.

    If ever a race could be written off and excused it was that.

    The problem is he was subsequently lowered 2lb and they put a claimer on him to take off another 3lb next time out but he was still beaten at Donny when conditions should have been fine, yet upped 4lb again as a result.

    and then if you have any desire to protect a handicap mark it's not the wisest thing to run your 139 rated horse against the 169 & 163 rated Buveur D'air & the New One in the 4 runner, Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle - on soft ground. Luckily he managed to earn connections nearly 13k without suffering a rise in the weights so if taken at face value he's a certainty off 139 in whatever he runs in

    I'm just not sure what to make of him anymore.
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  5. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    There is no doubt that on a literal reading of the Kempton form Mohaayed might be extremely well handicapped. I have '??sl' annotated above the race because of the very slow time. The double question mark pretty much speaks for itself. It means I have to seriously questions the form. The 'sl' is to remind me that the time was very slow hence I should be wary of the form. This annotation was borne of bitter experience in earlier years' punting.

    I'm always wary of taking such slow races, especially non-handicaps, at face value.

    That's not to say I wouldn't back Mohaayed in a forthcoming handicap. It really means if I did back it I could already have a reason for its not justifying the rating.
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  6. #25
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    Does anyone know what date the handicaps are first released this year?

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    Ignore me, I've answered my own question. Entries 22nd Feb and weights 28th Feb. Also entries for x-country, mares novices, 4 miler, and foxhunter on the 28th.

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    You are very difficult to ignore, sir and I see no reason why we should.
    Last edited by Colin Phillips; 3rd February 2018 at 12:00 PM.
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    28th's a bit of a nightmare with regard to the ante-post compy. Bit of a busy evening in store.

    I've always had a bit of an aversion to Cheltenham handicaps. Maybe it's because I have so many bets on the conditions races I feel that's enough, but last year I missed out big time. I picked Supersundae in the Cheltenham naps competition that was run but didn't punt the thing, backed the two Nick Williams horses in the Fred Winter, which was nice, and also backed Road to Respect in the Ultima to support my ap bet on Singlefarmpayment but didn't support him when he turned up in the much weaker Plate, at the same price, over a more suitable trip. Trixies/doubles or trebles on those horses would have been retirement money.

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    You are very difficult to ignore, sir and I see no reason why we should.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Entries down this year, last year's in brackets

    Ultima 83 (102) Close Bros 79 (78) Coral Cup 119 (130) Fred Winter 42 (54) Pertemps 55 (54) Plate 94 (100) Kim Muir 77 (101) County 88 (100) Martin Pipe 146 (164) Grand Annual 65 (77) Total 848 (960)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Entries down this year, last year's in brackets

    Ultima 83 (102) Close Bros 79 (78) Coral Cup 119 (130) Fred Winter 42 (54) Pertemps 55 (54) Plate 94 (100) Kim Muir 77 (101) County 88 (100) Martin Pipe 146 (164) Grand Annual 65 (77) Total 848 (960)
    Surely a (positive) result of the 48 hour decs restricting horses from being declared in more than one race for everything bar the non-novice G1s.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 20th February 2018 at 4:53 PM.
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    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Eagle Lion runs today for the Fahy/Russell/Reynolds partnership. He’s their pretempts horse and connections are bidding for 3 in a row after Maldini & Presenting Percy.


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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    Eagle Lion runs today for the Fahy/Russell/Reynolds partnership. He’s their pretempts horse and connections are bidding for 3 in a row after Maldini & Presenting Percy.


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    Eagle Lion rated OR 131 in Ireland before this race today. He'd need to be 138 - 140 UK mark to guarantee getting in, wouldn't he? (Obviously finish in the first 6 too).
    I'm wondering if he almost needs to win today to gaurentee getting in? It's a fine line!!! If he doesn't win he might not be high enough rated to get in. If he does win, bearing in mind connections, the UK handicapper is sure to crucify him.

    Percy was 1 lb lower OR 130 Irish mark, when winning this qualifier a year ago.
    The day of the pertemps at festival he raced off 146 after a 3 length win in this.

    Can anyone remember what the Irish handicapper put him up for this win and then what UK handicapper added on ??

  15. #34
    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Yes & I’d imagine the gamble on him earlier today reflects him probably needing to win today.


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    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    very weak in the market

  17. #36
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Drifting hard now. 6.6 on the machine before the off

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    Kilfenora looked an absolute classic JP "Not too far" job there didn't it. Walsh trying to win by as little as possible.

    He was OR 127 Irish mark before that. I'd say that's just about perfect for getting raised enough (after UK handicapper adds his lbs on) to get in, but still a nice low racing weight at the festival.

  19. #38
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    Eagle Lion found to be coughing post race.


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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Anyone know when handicap entries are released?

    I am looking directly at Diamond Geezer at this point.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 21st February 2018 at 8:31 PM.
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    I think it might be tomorrow, Grassy, with the weights a week on.
    The older I get the better I was.

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