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Thread: Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

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    Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

    I don't think that there's a thread for this yet and probably not much action until entries are made but with NRNB in place now may be a good time for speculative bets.

    A few random points that I've collected:
    - still a young race but the highest OR to win the Fred Winter is 134.
    - some Irish trainers may enter Trials Day handicaps to get an early idea of a UK mark.
    - there will no doubt be horses who achieved a workable mark as novice hurdlers last season and are now trying novice chasing but may revert to a handicap hurdle at the Festival.
    - the Close Bros Novice Hcap Chase last season had an OR range of just 137-142 for 20 runners. I believe that the upper limit has been raised to 145 this season but it will remain an art getting in.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Personally, it's way too early for me to be betting in the handicaps.

    We don't know their marks, we don't know if their existing marks will be affected in the interim, and every handicapper will get multiple entries, regardless of whether they're hurdlers or chasers. The markets are also ultra-competitive, and likelihood is you can bet to similar odds on the day, without tying-up capital for two months.

    I just don't see the upside myself, archie.

    Happy to see the thread started, mind.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    A bit early for me too but I feel I can't afford to ignore the fact they're coming down the line for the reasons archie says.

    Love those handicaps!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Handicaps interest me more than anything.i love hcaps 5f to 4.5m

    One horse for me isnt in the betting yet in the 3m hcap chase on the first day.used to be called the Ritz.is it the Ultima.

    TEMPESTATEFRESCO

    this horse really impressed me when he won.you could call it the winner 4 out but has disappointed since but maybe it was the going.
    If this tizzard horse runs i will do my nuts.

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    I've actually took a bet at 16's on Single Farm Payment e/w in the Ultima after he got beat at Ascot (I think you can still get that price). I can't see him progressing to other things as was thought he may do earlier in the campaign. I could only see a couple of options for him really that was to wait for the Bet Bright at Kempton as its after the weights come out for the National or to go back and attempt this again. In fairness I'm not his biggest fan and not as keen on his abilities as some on the forum. I do believe though he's just a better horse at Cheltenham I think it suits his style of running more. I think the current 2 at the head of the Market Cause of causes will run in the Cross country and Gold present will probably progress to better things before this. So I'm 90% sure he'll end up back here and if he does I can see him being around half those current odds on the day. Will he win ? Probably not its more than likely he'll find one or two, too good for him but I can try and find those nearer the day if I hold a decent position on him.

    Ivan Gorbatov (excuse the spelling ) He's one I've had my eye on. Looks for all the world as if he hasn't been off at all this season. It was pointed out to me by someone else yesterday that he would probably head to the County again where he ran well last year. My guess is the handbrake will be firmly applied until the festival and may well be a JP gamble. He could certainly end up lower in the handicap than last year when finishing third. I certainly don't like trying to second guess gambles as that's an expensive hobby but the form is in the book his mark looks reasonable and at 25/1 NRNB I could think of worse suggestions.


    Nowt serious on either for myself and wouldn't suggest anyone runs off to back them but those are just a couple of ideas.

    Another couple of vague ideas I have regards handicappers although I'd have no idea what the plan is with them. The first is Vaniteux I've watched a few of his runs and they are playing around with his tack. He was tried in blinkers in the Peterborough Chase and to my eye its was the best round of jumping he'd displayed for a while although admittedly the pace was slow he was travelling really well for a long way but didn't really see out the trip. They removed the blinkers and tried some other combo for his next run. Why if something seemingly worked well would you remove it ...unless that wasn't "the day". I think he's easing towards a winnable mark and I'd be very interested to see him in a handicap dropped back to two miles with blinkers and a tt in combination. If a festival handicap was on the agenda the you'd have to think the Jonny Henderson would be the one although that is a sketchy guess.

    Another one of Pipes that I'm probably more interested in is Vieux Lion Rouge. The overall target is obviously the National. The form of his run in the Grand National trial last year looks incredible although he came up short in the big one itself. I have to admit that via an e/w double with Double Shuffle in the KG I already need this one to make the first 4 in the National this time around for £1500 so my view might be rose tinted. Although he had form early in his career on Heavy ground where I think he was winning in spite of conditions rather than because of them. I think he's a much better animal with a better surface to go on. He's put in 2 completely lack lustre performances thus far this campaign and I fully expect him to do the same on Saturday in the Peter Marsh at Haydock which will probably be his last run until after the weights come out. After the weights come out I think you'll see a different animal and sometimes horses for the National have prepped in something like the Ultima or the Kim Muir. Off the top of my head I can't recall how close the National drops to the Festival this year but if he did turn up there off a further reduced mark ( if of course running poorly in the Peter Marsh ) then he'd be of serious interest.
    Last edited by Danny; 16th January 2018 at 2:21 PM.
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    Oh better get this one in also one I wrote for my place yesterday. Excuse the silliness.

    The Juveniles.

    If I haven't got a clue about Novices then I'm absolutely daffy ducked when it comes to this lot.

    We have the Triumph and the Fred winter. Although I do have a very simplistic approach to the fred winter that stood me in good stead before going into semi retirement that has to wait until much closer the day. however there is a matter of vital importance.

    Mister Chow

    He's a horse that caught my eye when finishing 2nd last time out pulled ferociously hard throughout the race and finished very strongly. Those 2 things coupled always make me sit up and take notice as a horse who can do much better when getting involved in a stronger race. This lowly rated all weather yak looks like he could be a lot better under this code. That race was really slowly run and the winner has been put up to 133. Mister Chow has yet to receive a rating and isn't in any list for the festival events. I get the feeling though he might be able to get himself a mark and sneak in to the Fred Winter. No bets available atm so what was the matter of vital importance I hear you cry ?

    Well if I can't be the first person to say that hopefully Mister Chow will be leaving the bookies with a Hangover .. then I simply couldn't live with myself.

    https://youtu.be/ugaZihPC10I
    Last edited by Danny; 16th January 2018 at 2:39 PM.
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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Le Patriote is one that I shall be looking out for after the Lanzarote.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Le Patriote is one that I shall be looking out for after the Lanzarote.
    When dropped back in trip ?

    Actually just to add to that as that was my initial thought when I watched the race. Is 127 a bit low to get into a festival handicap ? Off the top of my head it is. I saw someone once attempt a February handicap system based around horses that had festival targets who were just a bit too low to get in or borderline. The system was basically they would be trying for their lives in February on a "win to get in " basis.

    I think he'd be a candidate for that.

    Although I wouldn't be expecting much of a price.
    Last edited by Danny; 16th January 2018 at 2:37 PM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    IOff the top of my head I can't recall how close the National drops to the Festival this year
    It's a month this year. The National is on Saturday 14th April.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Singlefarmpayment surely won't go for the race at Kempton given how poorly he jumped at Ascot.

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    Yeah that was my thought that he's most likely to go to the Ultima again hence the bet at 16's as he's not going to be that price if lining up off his current mark.
    Last edited by Danny; 16th January 2018 at 4:36 PM.
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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    When dropped back in trip ?

    Actually just to add to that as that was my initial thought when I watched the race. Is 127 a bit low to get into a festival handicap ? Off the top of my head it is. I saw someone once attempt a February handicap system based around horses that had festival targets who were just a bit too low to get in or borderline. The system was basically they would be trying for their lives in February on a "win to get in " basis.

    I think he'd be a candidate for that.

    Although I wouldn't be expecting much of a price.
    Yes.

    Bottom weight ran off 135 in the County last year.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Oh better get this one in also one I wrote for my place yesterday. Excuse the silliness.

    The Juveniles.

    If I haven't got a clue about Novices then I'm absolutely daffy ducked when it comes to this lot.

    We have the Triumph and the Fred winter. Although I do have a very simplistic approach to the fred winter that stood me in good stead before going into semi retirement that has to wait until much closer the day. however there is a matter of vital importance.

    Mister Chow

    He's a horse that caught my eye when finishing 2nd last time out pulled ferociously hard throughout the race and finished very strongly. Those 2 things coupled always make me sit up and take notice as a horse who can do much better when getting involved in a stronger race. This lowly rated all weather yak looks like he could be a lot better under this code. That race was really slowly run and the winner has been put up to 133. Mister Chow has yet to receive a rating and isn't in any list for the festival events. I get the feeling though he might be able to get himself a mark and sneak in to the Fred Winter. No bets available atm so what was the matter of vital importance I hear you cry ?

    Well if I can't be the first person to say that hopefully Mister Chow will be leaving the bookies with a Hangover .. then I simply couldn't live with myself.

    https://youtu.be/ugaZihPC10I
    Mister Chow lands a bit of a gamble in the first at Warwick be interesting to see what mark he gets.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    I think that Coo Star Sivola will stand a decent chance in the Close Bros if he gets in. Currently on 135, I'd suggest that he needs to win tomorrow and go up to above 140. Likely to be trying.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Think he is one of Euros cliff horses Archie
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    I'm on K2 tomorrow. Coo Star and Singlefarmpayment on the same card. Feck

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Le Patriote is one that I shall be looking out for after the Lanzarote.
    Tomorrow looks like the day he books his ticket for the County.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    I’d never considered this before but can/would the BHA assess a UK horse’s rating for a performance in Ireland?
    Last edited by wilsonl; 1st February 2018 at 9:33 AM.
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    I'd take it as a certainty.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Phil Smith often assesses performances in Ireland by Irish horses, never mind British-trained ones.

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