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Thread: Betfair Hurdle

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Cheers Danny backed him several times so it gives me the opportunity to take my stake out and leave a decent bet to nothing.
    Considering how keen he was all the way that is one hell of a performance well played mate.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  3. #42
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Thanks Danny..but I have to thank a certain young lady who marked my card. I wouldn't have crossed my mind otherwise.

    I also had a couple on him at 2.1 to be in the first 4 and my Aussie bet came up today so I am in clover.

    Having a bet on Brain Power at 2.12 to be in the first 2 which seems like a stealing money to me..now we got rid of David Mullin who just steered Bonbon Au Miel home in great style LOL
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #43
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    My apologies to David Mullins only had to jump to take 2nd and didn't
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Ill be honest I didn't realise how much of a good bet it was till the Monday when I fully came round.
    Only stuck a speculative each way bet on and I could make near enough a months wages should it come in. (I don't bet big)

    At the time Lalors form is nothing spectacular. But when flicking through entries and prices for this race I remember the horse coming a few lengths behind Mr One More. A horse I think highly of and have backed him in competitions on this and AP for Cheltenham.

    Lalor also beat Summerville boy who went and franked that form just a couple of weeks ago. Should he get in the race i won't be surprised to see jim go off favourite and run a blinder in this.

    My main bet is Kayf Grace who I've already had a few quid on singly, Lalor returns the biggest profit though.

    Couldn't quite tell you if it's likely 12 will drop? Looking through I can probably account for about 8.
    Double, what price did you take on Lalor, I hope you don't mind me asking?

    I've looked at the race entries again. I like Lalor for the same reasons.

    I checked oddschecker just now, thinking as Lalor was from a smaller stable, he'd be about a 20/1 chance.

    How and when did he go to 10/1? Was Lalor put in at that price or has he been backed into 10's?

    Good luck with your double, btw.
    Last edited by Marble; 20th January 2018 at 5:25 PM.

  6. #45
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    Oh and a horse that finished quite some way behind behind Lalor the last day, Martin Keighleys, Spice Girl, is entered in several novice hurdles this week!
    Last edited by Marble; 20th January 2018 at 5:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Double, what price did you take on Lalor, I hope you don't mind me asking?

    I've looked at the race entries again. I like Lalor for the same reasons.

    I checked oddschecker just now, thinking as Lalor was from a smaller stable, he'd be about a 20/1 chance.

    How and when did he go to 10/1? Was Lalor put in at that price or has he been backed into 10's?

    Good luck with your double, btw.
    Thanks..Probably need good luck, looking like 12 need to drop. Didn't even take that into consideration. More a pissed up thing trying to be clever. How Lalor came into the market I really don't know, but got 10/1 and 7/1 On William Henry.

    Pays just under 1500 off my 15 e/w. Sure I'll get BOG so not too worried if there is a slight drift. Least I think I do, still learning about different bets and field sizes etc.

    As I said, people probably stake a lot more than 1500 just in singles, I unfortunately don't have the means to do such a bet. Hoping if I learn the game enough I will one day be able to do so.

    Certainly make one very happy Mrs of mine if this comes in. (Not told her yet)

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    As I said, people probably stake a lot more than 1500 just in singles, I unfortunately don't have the means to do such a bet. Hoping if I learn the game enough I will one day be able to do so.
    Erm don't think there is many staking to those levels on a regular basis bud. Maybe a few of the short odds boys yeah but doubt most regular punters who punt at decent prices can firstly get that much on and secondly have a bank roll that sustains those sort of bets for long losing runs. I watched a thing Hugh Taylor did where he put a 10% strike rate through a random number generator 10 times for a cycle of 500 bets at a time. The longest losing run was 51 bets which is what you could expect if your backing 10/1 shots regular that would still make you a winning punter. So roughly to be on the safe side if you ever hope to be punting 1500 quid a time on 10/1 pokes then make sure you have a bankroll of about 80k first haha.

    Money is all relative mate if you can win a months wages by betting 30 then that's a fantastic achievement and nobody is going to look down on that if they do they are an utter dickhead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Erm don't think there is many staking to those levels on a regular basis bud. Maybe a few of the short odds boys yeah but doubt most regular punters who punt at decent prices can firstly get that much on and secondly have a bank roll that sustains those sort of bets for long losing runs. I watched a thing Hugh Taylor did where he put a 10% strike rate through a random number generator 10 times for a cycle of 500 bets at a time. The longest losing run was 51 bets which is what you could expect if your backing 10/1 shots regular that would still make you a winning punter. So roughly to be on the safe side if you ever hope to be punting 1500 quid a time on 10/1 pokes then make sure you have a bankroll of about 80k first haha.

    Money is all relative mate if you can win a months wages by betting 30 then that's a fantastic achievement and nobody is going to look down on that if they do they are an utter dickhead.
    Even if I had a bank roll of 80k I wouldn't be staking such bets. This is more of an interest, mainly from my late Grandad who was a bookie for Dunne Bookmakers. Couldn't even tell you if they where a national brand or not, just the local one to us before Betfred took over it.

    I only tend to bet on weekend racing as well as my knowledge of the lower class handicap horses is pretty poor. Unfortunately with my career and hours I don't have a lot of time to really find some value.
    If I can ever get to a level of yourself or the other knowledgeable posters I'll be more than happy.

  10. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Sure I'll get BOG so not too worried if there is a slight drift. Least I think I do, still learning about different bets and field sizes etc.
    I suggest you check your account, Double J. I very much doubt you'll have BOG. As far as I know that's only on offer from a few firms for Cheltenham.

    If you have the readies, you could always deposit 1320 at Betfair and lay Lalor to about 120 and guarantee a small return regardless of the result (letting the place portion ride) and also if it gets taken out somewhere along the way. I know I would think about it but would almost certainly let it ride unless I ended up fancying something else a lot more.

    As I said recently, though, you should have no worries about making the cut. I reckon it's long odds-on to make it.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  11. #50
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    I'm almost halfway through my initial trawl of the weights and already I'm thinking one or other of Hendo and/or JP will win this.

    Hendo is picking up all these big Saturday handicap hurdles and you can't help thinking he's holding back one or two he thinks are better-handicapped.

    Some are owned by JP but he also has smart types with other trainers and he'll surely have been told which of them are likely types for the race he likes to target.

    Having said all that, if I'm right about Cliffs Of Dover I probably don't need to worry
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  12. #51
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    Actually had a think about this I was looking at what would frame the weights and as I did so I realised how condensed the handicap becomes without Defi. Henderson and Bromley seemed to be concerned that if they ran Call me a Lord under Top weight that he'd be giving lumps of weight away to better handicapped horses. The way I see it is if CML carried top weight everything down to No.33 on the card (remembering a max of 24 runners) would carry 10-12 or above which would mean he'd only be giving away a stone to a handful of runners if that. If they were that concerned about the weight they could always jock up a claimer.

    Thought i'd give in a mention as without Defi and CML You could be looking at Campeador topping the weights perhaps ? In which case the majority of the field will carry 11 stone or more I'd have thought so if you were thinking of backing something high up in the weights its probably not going to be that much of a burden.
    Last edited by Danny; 22nd January 2018 at 2:46 AM.
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  13. #52
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    I had similar thoughts yesterday, Danny.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the top five came out but something has to carry top weight!

    Anyway, here are my first-trawl figures - I haven't taken 10-0 as bottom weight in expectation of the foregoing so anything eventually running from out of the handicap will have to have its rating adjusted accordingly:

    Horse Age Weight Owner Trainer OR MON
    (171++)
    Notes
    CHARLI PARCS (FR) 5 11-00 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 145 174 ?
    MAQUISARD (FR) 6 9-03 M K George Gary Moore 120 174 ? e
    JENKINS (IRE) 6 10-12 Pump & Plant Services Ltd Nicky Henderson 143 173 ? +p
    -pen
    GWAFA (IRE) 7 10-09 Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar Paul Webber 140 173 p
    NIETZSCHE 5 10-01 D Gilbert, M Lawrence, A Bruce, G Wills Brian Ellison 132 173 ?
    PROJECT BLUEBOOK (FR) 5 10-10 J P McManus John Quinn 141 171 p
    MERI DEVIE (FR) 5 10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 139 171 p
    VEINARD (FR) 9 9-11 T D Howley Jnr/J N O'Brien Gordon Elliott IRE 128 171 ?
    BIRCH HILL (IRE) 8 9-03 G Thompson Sophie Leech 120 169 ?
    CAMPEADOR (FR) 6 11-06 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE 151 168 +p
    MISTER MIYAGI (IRE) 9 11-02 Ben Turner & Jay Tabb Dan Skelton 147 168 p
    DIVIN BERE (FR) 5 10-13 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 144 168 ? y
    CHARMING ZEN (FR) 6 10-05 Sullivan Bloodstock Limited Nicky Henderson 136 168 +p
    WISHFULL DREAMING 7 9-08 Mrs Diana L Whateley Olly Murphy 125 168 (172? y)
    VERDANA BLUE (IRE) 6 11-00 Crimbourne Stud Nicky Henderson 145 167 +p
    SILVER STREAK (IRE) 5 10-02 L Fell Evan Williams 133 167 p
    MAN OF PLENTY 9 9-06 G Thompson Sophie Leech 123 167 p?
    HIGH BRIDGE 7 11-03 Margaret Ferguson Ben Pauling 148 166 p
    BLEU ET ROUGE (FR) 7 11-01 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE 146 166 ? p?
    [167pt]
    LOUGH DERG SPIRIT (IRE) 6 10-07 Grech & Parkin Nicky Henderson 138 166 p +?
    POPPY KAY 8 10-06 Aiden Murphy & Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs 137 166
    WILLIAM H BONNEY 7 10-03 Mr & Mrs R Scott Alan King 134 166 p +?
    MASTER OF IRONY (IRE) 6 10-02 Highfield Racing 6 John Quinn 133 166 +p
    NIGHT OF SIN (FR) 5 10-01 Simon Brown & Ron Watts Nick Williams 132 166 ?
    PINGSHOU (IRE) 8 11-03 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Colin Tizzard 148 165 p?
    MOON RACER (IRE) 9 10-11 Prof Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Drew David Pipe 142 165 o d
    KALASHNIKOV (IRE) 5 10-10 Paul Murphy Amy Murphy 141 165 p?
    REMILUC (FR) 9 10-08 Gilbert & Gamble Chris Gordon 139 165
    DIESE DES BIEFFES (FR) 5 10-06 Sullivan Bloodstock Limited Nicky Henderson 137 165 +p
    ZALVADOS (FR) 5 9-12 D C Mercer Oliver Greenall 129 165 p
    DEFI DU SEUIL (FR) 5 11-12 J P McManus Philip Hobbs 157 164 ? +?
    CALL ME LORD (FR) 5 11-07 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson 152 164 +p
    ELGIN 6 11-06 Elite Racing Club Alan King 151 164 p
    WILLIAM HENRY (IRE) 8 11-06 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson 151 164 p +?
    IRVING 10 11-04 Axom XLIX Paul Nicholls 149 164 o d
    (172)
    [+]
    LAGOSTOVEGAS (IRE) 6 11-02 John Donohue Willie Mullins IRE 147 164 p
    MISTERTON 7 10-11 Wilkin, Orr, Boileau & Sim Harry Fry 142 164 p
    CHTI BALKO (FR) 6 10-11 D G Carrington Donald McCain 142 164 p?
    MONT DES AVALOIRS (FR) 5 10-10 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls 141 164 p +?
    DAME ROSE (FR) 5 10-09 Carl Hinchy Richard Hobson 140 164 p?
    KARALEE (FR) 7 10-09 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 140 164 p
    KAYF GRACE 8 10-09 James and Jean Potter Nicky Henderson 140 164 p
    BEN DUNDEE (IRE) 6 10-08 CJones Gordon Elliott IRE 139 164 p?
    SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (IRE) 6 10-08 N W Lake Dan Skelton 139 164 p +?
    LALOR (GER) 6 10-06 D G Staddon Richard Woollacott 137 164 p +?
    KNOCKNANUSS (IRE) 8 10-04 Hail Sargent Evans Gary Moore 135 164 p
    WATERLORD 7 10-04 Matthew Taylor Donald McCain 135 164 +p
    LOSTINTRANSLATION (IRE) 6 10-03 Taylor & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard 134 164 p
    IRISH ROE (IRE) 7 10-03 Peter Atkinson Peter Atkinson 134 164 +p
    MAGIC DANCER 6 9-07 Mark E Smith & The Magic Partnership Kerry Lee 124 164 p
    COEUR BLIMEY (IRE) 7 10-01 Keith Harris & Tom Gardner Susan Gardner 132 163 +? p?
    CLIFFS OF DOVER 5 11-00 John & Barbara Cotton Paul Nicholls 145 159 o ++
    VOIX DU REVE (FR) 6 11-00 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 145 ? [167p]
    BIDOUREY (FR) 7 9-08 Brocade Racing David Pipe 125 ? {174o}
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd January 2018 at 10:03 AM.
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  15. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Anyway, here are my first-trawl figures - I haven't taken 10-0 as bottom weight in expectation of the foregoing so anything eventually running from out of the handicap will have to have its rating adjusted accordingly:[
    Anything running 7Lb out of the handicap, only has to put a claimer up to run off their correct mark!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 22nd January 2018 at 9:03 PM.

  16. #54
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    Depends on which 7lb claimer mate some are like having a 10lb penalty in my view. You always really have to take into account whether the claimer is worth his 7lb imo.
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    One of my father's betting mantras was "a 7lb claimer is a 7lb penalty".

    I think it held good 50 years ago but I've long been of the opinion that, while in the majority of cases I see a claimer as a negative, there are certain ones who are worth at least part of their claim. How people arrive at the evaluation of the claimer is entirely subjective.

    In a really big race, would I prefer to see a 7lbs claimer on my horse or Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, Nico de Boinville?

    It might depend on the race and/or the claimer. Few claimers get the chance in Graded races but in the big handicaps they tend to be in demand if they're good enough.

    I think individual punters need to take each case on its merits.
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  18. #56
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    Yup.
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    I have my eye on Knocknanuss who has never been out of the first two, is improving each race and was barely blowing after winning off top weight l/t/o - I have a gut feeling this horse is already a mid 140's horse and could be well handicapped? However, he may not get in and may not handle a big field handicap. I also see no value in the prices of any of the horses at this stage and can't see my selections price changing much before the day of race.

    This horse was purchased by Willie Mullins after winning a PTP in 2015 for 180,000 but ended up with Michael Winters. He won a NHF Race in June 2015 easily beating the likable Peregrine Run and the moved to Moore at the end of 2015. Didn't see a racecourse again until May 2017 and imo hasn't stopped improving since.
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    The very fact that Moore trains him entitles him to a lot of respect.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    I have my eye on Knocknanuss who has never been out of the first two, is improving each race and was barely blowing after winning off top weight l/t/o - I have a gut feeling this horse is already a mid 140's horse and could be well handicapped? However, he may not get in and may not handle a big field handicap. I also see no value in the prices of any of the horses at this stage and can't see my selections price changing much before the day of race.

    This horse was purchased by Willie Mullins after winning a PTP in 2015 for 180,000 but ended up with Michael Winters. He won a NHF Race in June 2015 easily beating the likable Peregrine Run and the moved to Moore at the end of 2015. Didn't see a racecourse again until May 2017 and imo hasn't stopped improving since.
    You're not alone. He's my second preference after Lalor.
    Last edited by Marble; 23rd January 2018 at 11:32 AM.

  22. #60
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    FWIW, Frank Berry reported yesterday that Defi Du Seuil's target is the Irish Champion Hurdle, so weights potentially will rise.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 23rd January 2018 at 4:06 PM.
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