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Thread: Betfair Hurdle

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don't plan to get involved early with this race. I've got a good record in the race but have lost out ante-post too often in recent years. I also think the County is challenging it for importance in the minds of connections regardless of the difference in prize money.

    But I'll always want something with the potential to run well in the Champion Hurdle on my side.

    From the Champion Hurdle thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The one that caught my eye in that list is Cliffs Of Dover for Nicholls.

    Considering he trains the likes of Old Guard, a horse not far off 160, and didn't even enter him for the race, as well as so many other decent hurdlers in the stable, it's eyecatching - to me at any rate! - that he's entered the 145-rated Cliffs Of Dover who has been off for a full year.

    Nicholls presumably rates him a 160+ hurdler so I've taken him ante-post for the Betfair Hurdle at prices in the 30s. He might not get there but if he turns up on the day it's unlikely he'll be that kind of price.
    The stable’s Zarkandar won the Betfair off 151 on his 5yo seasonal debut and went up to 163 for following up with a solid run in the Champion Hurdle, eventually going up to 168 for winning the Elite off that mark the following season. If Cliffs Of Dover is anywhere near that ball park the current 33/1 will look like Christmas come ten months early.

    But he has to get there.

    He might be another John Constable (NR in the Betfair off 139, well beaten off the same mark in the County and eventually came good at the end of last season and is now entered for the Champion off 156) or Blue Bajan (well beaten off 128, went up to 146 for winning the Swinton off a higher mark and eventually was rated - rightly or wrongly - 160).
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th January 2018 at 9:16 PM.
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  3. #22
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    The owners of Cliffs of Dover like their horses to be ready first time out.

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  5. #23
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    All I am saying is...JENKINS get on :0)
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    All I am saying is...JENKINS get on :0)
    That's a strange selection Tanlic coming from someone who thought Call me lord had been harshly treated with a 9lb rise for what he did at Sandown.

    Jenkins raised 11lb for beating Don Bersy 5L who'd been beaten 21L and 25L lengths in his last two starts over similar trips off similar marks. He's done Hurricane Hollow 10L who was 33L behind Call me lord last time out not that I'm saying that's a realistic reflection but it hardly advertises solid form.

    Jenkins completely flat out all the way so don't think he had much left to give.

    He was in first time blinkers so not guaranteed that he'd reproduce that improved form next time.

    And just to put the icing on the cake he ran down several flights and was jumping right handed and is about to switch onto a left handed track.

    Any thoughts ?
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    On first run-through, I'm drawn to Couer Blimey, but not at all drawn to a price of 20/1. Was hoping he'd be overlooked and twice that price.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Another 2 that catch my eye for it are Lough Derg Spirit and Misterton. Lough Derg only put up 1lb for finishing second to London Prize who looked to be going alright in the Greatwood until falling. Misteron who was second in the greatwood is steadily progessing. I'm probably drawn to them more as I think this race just suits horses that will run off the front end. I probably won't have much more involvement until closer the day now.

    I just noticed that Double Jay has Lalor in a double if I've read that right with William Henry who won the Lanzarote so that would be some bet if he could pull that off and looks to stand a fair chance if Lalor can just make the cut, needs 12 to come out so possible. Fingers crossed you mate that you get a run for your dough.
    Last edited by Danny; 18th January 2018 at 5:20 PM.
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  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    That's a strange selection Tanlic coming from someone who thought Call me lord had been harshly treated with a 9lb rise for what he did at Sandown.

    Jenkins raised 11lb for beating Don Bersy 5L who'd been beaten 21L and 25L lengths in his last two starts over similar trips off similar marks. He's done Hurricane Hollow 10L who was 33L behind Call me lord last time out not that I'm saying that's a realistic reflection but it hardly advertises solid form.

    Jenkins completely flat out all the way so don't think he had much left to give.

    He was in first time blinkers so not guaranteed that he'd reproduce that improved form next time.

    And just to put the icing on the cake he ran down several flights and was jumping right handed and is about to switch onto a left handed track.

    Any thoughts ?
    Saturday comes to mind :0)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    On first run-through, I'm drawn to Couer Blimey, but not at all drawn to a price of 20/1. Was hoping he'd be overlooked and twice that price.
    I was on last time, disappointed with the jumping, I really was. A place chance is the very best I could give him, personally, but I still think others make plenty more appeal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Saturday comes to mind :0)
    Don't know if that's in reference to Call Me Lord's appointment in the champion hurdle trial but I very much doubt he goes there or at least I hope not as I've backed Ch'tebllo earlier in the week for that reckoning on a no show from CML.

    If he is turning up there then I have seen some layers on the machine with uber Nuts!
    Last edited by Danny; 18th January 2018 at 9:50 PM.
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  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post

    I just noticed that Double Jay has Lalor in a double if I've read that right with William Henry who won the Lanzarote so that would be some bet if he could pull that off and looks to stand a fair chance if Lalor can just make the cut, needs 12 to come out so possible. Fingers crossed you mate that you get a run for your dough.
    Ill be honest I didn't realise how much of a good bet it was till the Monday when I fully came round.
    Only stuck a speculative each way bet on and I could make near enough a months wages should it come in. (I don't bet big)

    At the time Lalors form is nothing spectacular. But when flicking through entries and prices for this race I remember the horse coming a few lengths behind Mr One More. A horse I think highly of and have backed him in competitions on this and AP for Cheltenham.

    Lalor also beat Summerville boy who went and franked that form just a couple of weeks ago. Should he get in the race i won't be surprised to see jim go off favourite and run a blinder in this.

    My main bet is Kayf Grace who I've already had a few quid on singly, Lalor returns the biggest profit though.

    Couldn't quite tell you if it's likely 12 will drop? Looking through I can probably account for about 8.
    Last edited by Double J; 19th January 2018 at 2:48 AM.

  13. #31
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    I can offer you some encouragement, Double J.

    Last year Veinard and Eddiemaurice, entries 40 and 41 made the cut off 126.

    Lalor is entry 36 off 137.

    If I were a betting man (*cough*) I'd bite the hand off anyone offering me evens Lalor's rating makes the cut.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Don't know if that's in reference to Call Me Lord's appointment in the champion hurdle trial but I very much doubt he goes there or at least I hope not as I've backed Ch'tebllo earlier in the week for that reckoning on a no show from CML.

    If he is turning up there then I have seen some layers on the machine with uber Nuts!

    Nope..Ascot
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  15. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    All I am saying is...JENKINS get on :0)
    was 10/1 now as low as 3/1 but still 9/2 in a place which aint worth tuppence if it doesn't win
    Last edited by Tanlic; 19th January 2018 at 3:46 PM.
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  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Nope..Ascot
    Oh with you now apologies mate. Best of luck Tan that's a good price you've snaffled.
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  17. #35
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    Cheers Danny backed him several times so it gives me the opportunity to take my stake out and leave a decent bet to nothing.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  18. #36
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    Spuds done in terms of the Betfair but might work out better for a tilt at the Champion in terms that he shouldn't have such a hard race.

    http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/...ury-next-month

    Should help Double J out though
    Last edited by Danny; 19th January 2018 at 7:40 PM.
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  19. #37
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    Call Me Lord heading for Wincanton rather than Newbury next month
    My reading of that is that they don't think it well enough handicapped or that they fancy one or more stablemates so much more.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  20. #38
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    My reading of it is Bromley thinks he's got a serious champion hurdle candidate and doesn't want him to have a hard time in his prep...my reading is more likely to be tainted by wishful thinking though haha
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  21. #39
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    I agree, Danny.





    Wishful thinking
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  23. #40
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    Cheers bud.
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