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Thread: Betfair Hurdle

  1. #241
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    What mark was MTOY on in his Supreme?


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  3. #242
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    What mark was MTOY on in his Supreme?


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    162

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  5. #243
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    Get Me Out Of Here went up from 135 to 150 and didn't win for another 2 years.
    The older I get the better I was.

  6. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm not sure if the handicapper - I haven't got round to checking the blog page - took Maria's Benefit as the sole line of form in arriving at IR's new mark. I know I didn't. I rated IR on lines back to the third (in particular) and the other beaten horses, and it was a very true-run race. I have MB running a few pounds below form on the day on that basis.

    Even allowing for IR's new rating being plain wrong, she still ran miles below her previous, upwardly-mobile form.

    I'm prepared simply to put a line through Saturday's run and say that for whatever reason - ground, bounce, etc - she was never looking competitive from early in the race.

    I fully expect her to show, in time, that she should have been second at worst in the Betfair. Not that second would have done me a blind bit of good as I'd backed her win only.
    I think time will tell that a few ran well below form for a number of reasons Dessie, not least the ground and Irish Roe did look nothing like the horse at Doncaster and she normally travels much better in her races.

    But if her and Verdana Blue were to meet again on the same terms on better ground and despite the handicapper having Irish Roe 11lb well, in I'm not sure I'd back her to beat the Hendo mare.
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  7. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    What mark was MTOY on in his Supreme?


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    https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...-tent-or-yours

    Is that 149 or 162?

  8. #246
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    Not sure what you're asking, Len?

    It looks pretty clear that MTOY went up to 162 for winning the Betfair so that was his OR when he ran in the Supreme, which was a very high class renewal and his subsequent 15-lengths win at Aintree backs it up.
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  9. #247
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    Sorry, DO, I’m getting confused between the mark going into the Betfair and Supreme.

  10. #248
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    Good point, DH.
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  11. #249
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    Maybe novices are overrated when posting decent performances in this race but while Get Me Out of Here (150 post Newbury) and MTOY (162) were both beaten in the Supreme, both were arguably unfortunate and went mightily close.

    In between those two, Recession Proof had also won at Newbury as a novice and ran in the Supreme off a comparatively lowly 137 yet while he could only manage 5th at Cheltenham, that was behind Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter and Cue Card and he wasn't beaten far, with 7 lengths back to the rest.

    Basically, it takes a fairly high class novice to win this race from a mark of 141. Other novices have won it and performed badly at Cheltenham, such as Splash of Ginge but he went to Newbury running off 127 taking the jockey's claim into account.
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  12. #250
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    I find that a ridiculously huge rise considering half the field wouldn't have gone on the ground and anything that run on the front end fell in a heap. He seems to have rated it through Spirit of the games and that seems dicey seen as Spiritofthegames has earned his own rating over longer trips and was having his first try over 2 mile. That said though the figures do seem to back it up.
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  13. #251
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    If you take their word that Saturday wasn’t his ground then he looks a very fair price for the Supreme. He has genuine excuses for Sandown.


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  14. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    If you take their word that Saturday wasn’t his ground then he looks a very fair price for the Supreme. He has genuine excuses for Sandown.


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    I agree. My only reservation is that it was on testing ground which means he's a novice that goes into the Festival having had a tough race. History tells us that novices that have had races like that often underperform next time out.

    At his current price it's worth finding out though and I'd say he's a good ew bet. I added him on Saturday shortly after the race. Annoyingly I was a whisker from adding him as a dark horse for the TTF before he'd run this season, and instead went with an Emmett Mullins horse that hasn't been sighted all season.

  15. #253
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    Kalashnikov was ridden relatively close to the pace which makes his performance even more commendable. Bleu et Rouge had evidently been laid out for the race and was a Grade 1 winning novice but was blown away from the last.

    I cannot escape the feeling that we're Kalashnikov trained by Henderson he would be joint favourite.

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