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Thread: Betfair Hurdle

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    The very fact Defi Du Seuil is entered raises the eyebrows and the stage is set.
    Cast your mind back to JP's pair Hargam and Movewiththetimes ...Hargam who absolutely hates soft ground was nothing more than a plant to keep the formers weight down

    Defi is rated 17 lbs higher than the mare which means she'd get 10 stone and Charli Parcs 10st5lbs

    I spoke to a certain young lady who when I asked about the latter she confirmed a couple of months ago the Betfair was the plan

    The big question is..is he good enough


    Enter the Grassy one :0)
    Last edited by Tanlic; 11th January 2018 at 9:02 AM.
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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    We all knew there was some kind of plan for Bleu et Rouge
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    He had his chance and Bleu it
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    We all knew there was some kind of plan for Bleu et Rouge
    I think he needs further. I reckon the Coral Cup is the plan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hezz View Post
    I think he needs further. I reckon the Coral Cup is the plan.
    Agreed. I've thought so since the 'eyecatching' run a couple of months or so ago.

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    For what its worth my opinion.

    The Betfair hurdle

    So last Saturday I worked through a handicap hurdle and found 2 horses Our Merlin and Gassin Golf who I believe were both perhaps well handicapped and more like 130 something horses than low 120's. Struggling to split the pair I just played the reverse forecast as I believed the rest looked fairly treated at best and the Favourite looked up against it as a 5yo trying to give nearly 2 stone to the pair and he'd been less than impressive on reappearance. Well that idea went up in smoke as favourite Call me lord not only beat them but did it with the minimum of fuss. Our Merlin and Gassin Golf finished 2nd and 3rd with a bit to spare over the rest of the field which left me cursing my luck as I was left with the feeling that I'd bumped into something a bit special. As one idea goes down in flames another one does arrive from the ashes.

    What If my initial workings weren't too far out ? What if the pair I've backed were indeed running to about 130 something ? Its not beyond the realms. Our Merlin fell into the could be anything category before hand after winning lesser events in a bloodless manner. Gassin golf we already know a bit more about and although he's not the most reliable of yardstick he's been rated as high as 141 in the past and on his day ( well supported this day with tack reapplied ) then he's more than capable of running to 130ish. So If I'm right with that opinion then Call me Lord with only half a dozen runs under his belt as a 5yo has conceded near 2 stone to both and beat them as he liked. Its not beyond the realms that the handicapper who has raised him to 152 might be a bit short of the mark. I'd have him high 150's and that's without taking into consideration that at his age he should be progressing naturally anyway.

    That said I've taken 14/1 for him about this antepost in the hope that its on the agenda.

    More importantly though I've utterly abused the NRNB in the Champion Hurdle Market 40/1. Single and some e/w doubles which I'll fill you in on shortly.

    If he wins the Betfair he'll be a 160 rated 5yo on the up going to the Champion. If he fails to win the Betfair then you should by all accounts be getting refunds on the Champion hurdle bets.

    With the Champion Hurdle field looking weaker than hospital tea 40/1 NRNB is a complete no brainer fill yer boots.

    Before anyone throws any yukky 5yo Champion hurdle stats at me. Don't bother, I'll tell you in advance, they are minging !
    Last edited by Danny; 11th January 2018 at 3:41 PM.
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    Just in the Betfair hurdle market he's 16's with laddies which if you can do there price boosts, boosts to 18/1. It wasn't showing that Ladbrokes had a market on oddschecker which is most annoying as I've had a decent single at 14's. 'kin numpty. Thought I'd flag the price so no-one else makes the same mistake if they fancy a few quid.

    I didn't really want much more on for that event as I don't know whether he's an intended runner but couldn't resist an E/w double with Double Shuffle in the Cup at 40's.
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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I know where you are coming from Danny but I put a line through Call me lord as soon as I saw 153? that's 4lb higher than MTOY got and he beat God's Own by 10 lengths prior to the race.
    a 10lb rise for beating Our Merlin who last won off 100 is a disgrace.

    Robin of Locksley won the seller today beating a 100 rated horse into 3rd by 22 lengths today giving him 6lbs

    CML gave his fella 27lbs and a 3 length beating which is much the same but he gets a 153 and Robin will get a 132-135 at most.

    It's one thing fancying the horse Danny and he could win the race but using donkeys to justify a rating is not recommended.
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    Our Merlin did last win off 100 but won 15L on the snaff. To suggest that is a realistic reflection of his own ability is ridiculous. There were other horses in the field well behind them its not like it was a 3 horse race. I'd be very surprised if our Merlin doesn't end up mid 130's by the end of the season.

    Opinions vary of course.
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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    yes they do and I look at it like this

    Our Merlin beat Gassin Golf 3 lengths getting 6lbs and the4 rst were beaten by the home turn

    Gassin Golf is a consistent loser who has won the grand total of 1 hurdle race in his life and the last time he ran on heavy ground finished stone last.

    Giving weight to monkeys is how Arkle ended up on that crazy 212..people should realise taking weight off slow horses does not make them go a lot faster they just go slow longer.
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    The Phillip Hobbs trained Poppy Kay is catching my eye. She's come a long way since she started hurdling, looks as well-handicapped as anything else in the entries. She's entered in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and goes on any ground too, which I tend to think is a sign of a good horse.

    I may invest a little anti-post at 20's.
    Last edited by Marble; 11th January 2018 at 11:00 PM.

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    I don't plan to get involved early with this race. I've got a good record in the race but have lost out ante-post too often in recent years. I also think the County is challenging it for importance in the minds of connections regardless of the difference in prize money.

    But I'll always want something with the potential to run well in the Champion Hurdle on my side.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    I've doubled Lalor e/w with William Henry this weekend in the Lanzarote. Fancy a big run from both, the latter to actually win which I've also had a few points on in a single.
    Last edited by Double J; 12th January 2018 at 1:57 AM.

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    Also heard a few things positive about 'Kayf Grace' without looking at any form I couldn't tell you too much myself to be honest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    yes they do and I look at it like this

    Our Merlin beat Gassin Golf 3 lengths getting 6lbs and the4 rst were beaten by the home turn

    Gassin Golf is a consistent loser who has won the grand total of 1 hurdle race in his life and the last time he ran on heavy ground finished stone last.

    .
    I can also see where your coming from regards Gassin Golf and although he's not getting any younger he has twice placed in Imperial Cups over course and distance finished 3rd off 131. He was beaten 5 lengths in a Scottish Champion Hurdle off 141. He had a year out through injury and produced very little last year but its not beyond the realms of possibility there were reasons for that. He finished a 12L second to Remiluc trying to concede 15lb's to him and he's rated 139 now. He's then tried a longer trip then had a fall next time and a couple of poor efforts in the spring. The Heavy ground finishing last defeat was first time out with no headgear or tongue tie so if your putting that forward as Heavy ground form its a sample group of 1 and a poor 1 at that. Also CML has beaten him 6 lengths giving him 21lbs but wasn't fully extended to do so in fact he could have beaten him on those terms on the bridle. He was only shaken up after the last to put away Our Merlin so just on that basis the beaten distance is flattering to the second and third.

    We can talk collateral form lines until the cows come home but it still makes not absolutely no difference to the bet I'm suggesting. Yes I've had a decent bet on him for the Betfair and at 14's its a fair enough bet. The bet I'm suggesting is the better option is 40/1 for the champion hurdle NRNB.

    Would you agree that if he doesn't win the Betfair Hurdle or do something spectacular elsewhere in between now and March then he won't run in the Champion Hurdle - Money back.

    If he did win the Betfair Hurdle off 152 what price do you think he'd be for the Champion ? 10's ?

    The most likely outcome is a Non runner of course but there is no harm in trying.

    I think you might get a pointer in around a weeks time when the Champion Hurdle entries are made. I don't know who makes the decisions on the Munir horses whether its Henderson or Bromley. If it is Bromley I don't think there are many better judges in the game myself and if he decides he's worth an entry then its probably worth taking notice of with regards his chances in the handicap.
    Last edited by Danny; 12th January 2018 at 9:17 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    I've doubled Lalor e/w with William Henry this weekend in the Lanzarote. Fancy a big run from both, the latter to actually win which I've also had a few points on in a single.
    Well done with William Henry, Double!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    I've doubled Lalor e/w with William Henry this weekend in the Lanzarote. Fancy a big run from both, the latter to actually win which I've also had a few points on in a single.
    Nice one, DJ!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Cheers, helping cure my hangover this afternoon anyway. Had William Henry in a double with Waiting Patiently as well. Couldn't watch the race so will check it when i get home.
    Last edited by Double J; 13th January 2018 at 4:47 PM.

  25. #20
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    nice 1 you drunken bastid
    Formely Fist of Fury

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