Chepstow!

[Colin Phillips]

ABANDONED - hopefully rescheduled for Jan 6th.

[Grasshopper]

Did you leave a tap on, Col bach?

[Desert Orchid]

So glad to hear this. I've had staying guests and no time to look at the race. Pressure off, so I can enjoy my porridge!

[Colin Phillips]

Wouldn’t do that to you, Grass - well done with the Biter, by the way.

[TheBear]

So glad to hear this. I've had staying guests and no time to look at the race. Pressure off, so I can enjoy my porridge!

There’s a cracking handicap over the water to get your teeth into DO.


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[Grasshopper]

It takes a very good horse (G2/G1 level) to be winning this from the head of the weights, and only four horses carried more than 11-0 to win in the last 20 years; two of them being Gold Cup winners (Synchronised and Master Oats), and the other two being Native River (3rd in a Gold Cup) and Halcon Genelardais (4th in a Gold Cup).

There is nothing remotely that class in this race, imo, and with a marathon trip on Heavy Ground, I want to be with a relative lightweight. Of those declared at the 5-Day stage, I've rowed-in with Ask The Weatherman. He has winning-form at up to 3m4f (albeit in a Point), has winning-form on Soft/Heavy ground, has a progressive-looking profile under Rules (despite being a 9yo), has been laid-out for it, and with only 10-13 on his back, he will think he is running-loose (has never carried less than 11-7 in any of his previous races).

I've taken 19 through 16.5 on Betfair, and a boosted 13/1 with Ladbrokes.

Health Warning: my record in the race is fu*cking appalling, with Edmond being the only time I have called it right, and that was 18 years ago!

[Desert Orchid]

I'll run through them tonight (since my internet connection is currently holding) and put up what I think but there has to be a chance the race won't survive again or will cut up.

[Colin Phillips]

It’s been racing all day today and if we don’t get some dry for the rest of the week can see it being postponed again or abandoned.

[tiggers1972]

Almost certain to be abandoned I'd say.

[Colin Phillips]

......still raining and rather windy as well.

[Desert Orchid]

CHP 2.10 CORAL WELSH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) Win £85,425 25 run 3m5f110y Heavy ITV

NO.	FORM	HORSE		AGE	WGT	TRAINER RTF%	OR	TS	MON (165)	Notes	RPR
5	2/81-0		Silsol42	9	11-8	Paul Nicholls45	147	—	[172]	Hd	—
8	403P-2		Bishops Road35	10	11-5	Kerry Lee71	144	115	168		163
11	P0-F22		Raz De Maree32	13	11-1	Gavin Cromwell63	140	84	(168)		154
12	3F7-12		Vintage Clouds42	8	11-1	Sue Smith59	140	130	165	p +?	162
15	208-14		Folsom Blue41	11	10-12	Gordon Elliott58	137	92	(165)	p?	157
1	69F1-2		Vicente49	9	11-12	Paul Nicholls45	151	147	164	+p	161
23	PP8P-3		Firebird Flyer55	11	10-5	Evan Williams29	130	—	(164)	oe [173ed]	—
25	16-92F		Two Smokin Barrels11	9	10-0	Michael Scudamore38	125	117	(164)	?	157
17	PPP6-		O´Faolains Boy252	11	10-12	Rebecca Curtis	137	47	163	? {179}	150
20	149-P2		Alfie Spinner28	13	10-7	Kerry Lee71	132	120	163	? p?	160
6	11F6-2		Final Nudge56	9	11-6	David Dennis80	145	140	162	p	159
9	840-16		Houblon Des Obeaux28	11	11-4	Venetia Williams50	143	128	162	(170+)	160
18	PPP-63		Milansbar28	11	10-9	Neil King	134	112	162	[175+]	160
3	1174-1		Beware The Bear354x	8	11-10	Nicky Henderson59	149	127	161	p	161
16	200-11		Buckhorn Timothy44	9	10-12	Colin Tizzard31	137	—	(161)	p +?	—
21	3P3-94		Streets Of Promise7	9	10-6	Michael Scudamore38	131	97	161	? [162]	150
10	113-1		Wild West Wind284x	9	11-3	Tom George58	142	135	160	p	160
14	1P12-		Mysteree294	10	10-13	Michael Scudamore38	138	127	160	p	157
19	11P-3P		Rathlin Rose28	10	10-7	David Pipe20	132	131	160		159
24	P5P-31		Emperor´s Choice74x	11	10-3	Venetia Williams50	128	122	160	(167d)	158
2	4126-1		Rock The Kasbah84	8	11-10	Philip Hobbs13	149	134	158	p	156
22	2111-2		On The Road43	8	10-5	Evan Williams29	130	108	158	p +?	161
4	2751-1		Chase The Spud42	10	11-9	Fergal O´Brien44	148	115	157	p	156
7	115-9		Pobbles Bay56	8	11-5	Evan Williams29	144	107	157	+p	147
13	1171-1		Ask The Weatherman60	9	10-13	Jack R Barber67	138	87	157	+?p?	160

This is, as usual, a very competitive renewal of an always fascinating race. Right now I don’t think I would want to put anyone off anything. As I was doing the figures, what was going through my mind was that it would be nice if Folsom Blue was under the radar but at a current best price of 10/1 I can wait.

The two that catch my eye at nice prices are Silsol (33/1) and Buckhorn Timothy (40/1). I was hoping for similar odds about Milansbar since I put him up at God knows what price in the ‘Long Shot’ thread the other week only fior him not to run but he’s 20/1 and blue this evening so again I can wait.

Silsol hasn’t run over fences since January 2016 but he was a 158 (OR) hurdler at this best so really should be a 170 chaser waiting to happen, which would make him very well in off 147. I’ll wait till he’s confirmed and a jockey booked before getting involved, though.

Buckhorn Timothy’s two wins this season from two runs have been over hurdles but I wonder if that is to preserve a good mark. It looks to me like those hurdles runs suggest he’s improving and if he translate that improvement back over fences he’s a lovely price. I’ve taken the price each-way.

[littlelad]

Any update on the likelihood of Saturday going ahead??

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[wilsonl]

RP article today suggested connections were "very confident" as the storm that had swept the country actually helped them out in that it was mainly wind which had dried the course. Not taht much rain expected there now apparently so I'd say it'll go ahead, on desperate ground still probably.

[Desert Orchid]

Two fences to be omitted as well.

[Desert Orchid]

As I was doing the figures, what was going through my mind was that it would be nice if Folsom Blue was under the radar but at a current best price of 10/1 I can wait.

One bullet dodged, it seems.

[littlelad]

RP article today suggested connections were "very confident" as the storm that had swept the country actually helped them out in that it was mainly wind which had dried the course. Not taht much rain expected there now apparently so I'd say it'll go ahead, on desperate ground still probably.

Thanks, that is more positive than I was expecting!!

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[Colin Phillips]

Sunny with a strong, and bloody cold, drying wind at the moment.

[Diamond Geezer]

O'Faolains Boy (in Welsh GN) has had a wind op.

[moehat]

Hasn't it been a long time since a horse won the Welsh without a prep run?

[Desert Orchid]

Hasn't it been a long time since a horse won the Welsh without a prep run?

Yes. The stat gets a mensh in the Weekender: "...no seasonal debutant has triumphed in more than three decades."

I do believe Native River well and truly bucked several trends last year, though.

The chances are nowadays 'seasonal debutants' will have had a racecourse gallop or three if they're taking the race seriously.