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Thread: Caspian Cavier Gold Cup 16th December, Chelters

  1. #61
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Deaville Dancer being under-estimated at 33/1 - probably because he hasn't run in the grade, and the trainer is about as fashionable as a pair of loon-pants.

    Young, progressive and unexposed at the trip. Can't see why he should be the price he is, in a wide-open race.
    He did get hit quite hard for his last win, which is part of the problem for him. But you're right in saying he's young, progressive and unexposed at the trip and that he's maybe a bit longer than he should be because of the trainer.

    But he's also up against young progressive types who have form in better races. I give him an outside chance but wouldn't want to get involved at too much shorter. You might get 40s or 50s on the morning.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Points taken Danny but he wasn't at peak form last time, imho. His style of racing is to wear his heart on his sleeve and to do everything from the front. I feel these really genuine types often find it hard to maintain the exact same level of form week-in week-out in 60 grand handicap chases.

    It doesn't mean their form is inferior, far from it..if he's back to his very best plus a bit more he'll be there at the business end, as on a going day as we've discussed, the form is right up there with the best of them.

    Don't forget he's an each way price atm as well .
    Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 5:08 PM.

  3. #63
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    O.k Marb good luck mate and I'll be the first to congratulate you are indeed on the winner as I think you deserve a bit of luck after the Splash of Ginge fiasco last time.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Aye I won't be having the mortgage on by any means, I've been on a poor run truth be told. This is too open to go in heavy on something like Foxtail Hill, although I'm clearly more than happy to argue his case. A tenner each way for fun is more than enough.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 5:09 PM.

  6. #65
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    He did get hit quite hard for his last win, which is part of the problem for him. But you're right in saying he's young, progressive and unexposed at the trip and that he's maybe a bit longer than he should be because of the trainer.

    But he's also up against young progressive types who have form in better races. I give him an outside chance but wouldn't want to get involved at too much shorter. You might get 40s or 50s on the morning.
    I actually thought a 7lbs rise was getting nicely away with it, DO, because he absolutely danced-up at Doncaster without coming out of first gear.

    My view (right or wrong) is that this is genuinely a field of handicappers, with none of them really have pretensions of going onto significantly better things, further down the line. Whilst some of them might improve a little bit, I don't see any of them improving massively, which I think makes the winning 'target rating' (for want of a better description), perhaps lower than would usually be the case for this race. On that basis, I wanted to be on something less exposed than most, and I felt DD worth chancing at the price (after the Henderson horse - who I'd originally picked for much the same reasons - wasn't declared).

    It's true that DD has been winning in a much-lower grade, and he could easily get found-out on Saturday. He is also quite an edgy type, and might not take well to the customary preliminaries at Cheltenham, or what is likely to be a significantly bigger crowd than he's been used to. But at the odds on offer, and having absolutely no strong opinions on any of the rest of them, I figured to roll the dice.

    I fear that I will be compelled to go in again Saturday morning, if I see anything bigger than 33/1 knocking around the village. Good after Bad.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 14th December 2017 at 5:19 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I actually thought a 7lbs rise was getting nicely away with it, DO, because he absolutely danced-up at Doncaster without coming out of first gear.

    My view (right or wrong) is that this is genuinely a field of handicappers, with none of them really have pretensions of going onto significantly better things, further down the line. Whilst some of them might improve a little bit, I don't see any of them improving massively, which I think makes the winning 'target rating' (for want of a better description), perhaps lower than would usually be the case for this race. On that basis, I wanted to be on something less exposed than most, and I felt DD worth chancing at the price (after the Henderson horse - who I'd originally picked for much the same reasons - wasn't declared).

    It's true that DD has been winning in a much-lower grade, and he could easily get found-out on Saturday. He is also quite an edgy type, and might not take well to the customary preliminaries at Cheltenham, or what is likely to be a significantly bigger crowd than he's been used to. But at the odds on offer, and having absolutely no strong opinions on any of the rest of them, I figured to roll the dice.

    I fear that I will be compelled to go in again Saturday morning, if I see anything bigger than 33/1 knocking around the village. Good after Bad.
    Just looking through his form, he hasn't run on soft too often but when he has he appears to have handled it pretty well.

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    Think Paul Nicholls holds a strong hand

    Posted elsewhere that I am a fan of Romain De Sanam.

    Looks interesting each way at 12-1, and booking of Fehily will suit
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

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    RDS for me too. Ground will be better than for the BetVictor and he can resume progress


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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Ground on Chase & Hurdles course reported by Claisse as Soft, G/S in places, this morning.

    X-C course is G/S, Soft in places.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I took 16/1 Long House Hall this evening.

    There has to be a chance he won't run but if he does turn up I suspect he might be the type punters could latch on to.
    I've had a bit of a saver on this Des so thanks for flagging it up. Looks like you might be able to get a bit bigger tomorrow if you fancied topping up just took 20's on the machine for the win. As I'm unsure whether he'll handle the ground I won't go e/w as I figure he's an all or nothing type of bet tomorrow, he either bolts up or pulls up I reckon.

    Cheers des.
    Last edited by Danny; 15th December 2017 at 5:11 PM.
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  12. #71
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    LHH a NR chaps


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  13. #72
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    Probably a ground thing as I suggested might be the case.

    Unlucky Des. Hopefully he'll repay you at some point.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  14. #73
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Been out since mid-morning so only just saw he's out.

    If he went to 20 on the machine it would have worried me. Oh well, just need to keep him in mind for when it's not so soft.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #74
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I doubt if this is Clan De Obeaux type of race. I don't think he's much of a fighter and they don't come much faster and tougher than 2m5f round here.

    I was thinking Starchitect but he has rune here 5 times without success and this is his highest mark to date.

    Always said JP paid too much for La Prezien (290K) but he might just prove me wrong today.

    Wasn't Barry's finest hour last time. Le Prezien lost ground 5 out and Barry either decided he had plenty time to make it back up again or he thought the others would stop.

    Either way he was left with way too much to do and while he was perhaps the horse with the most toe it was all used up before he got to the last which he clouted anyway..

    Ridden closer to the pace today I expect him to win and reduce the balance owed to JP in style.

    La Prazien 7.5 taken
    Formely Fist of Fury

  16. #75
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    I think my idea of the first 4 now ends up something along the lines of

    Le Prezien
    Starchitect
    Guitar Pete
    Splash of Ginge

    or at least that's what I'm hoping
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  17. #76
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    CHL 1.55 CASPIAN CAVIAR GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (GR 3) (CLASS 1) Win £68,340 11 runners 2m4f166y Soft ITV4
    NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS MON
    (171+)
    Notes RPR
    8 3F30-3 King´s Odyssey33 8 10-11 Evan Williams42 Adam Wedge 140 140 171 p 160
    2 38P-23 Le Prezien28t 6 11-9 Paul Nicholls55 Barry Geraghty 152 150 169 p +? 164
    3 535-12 Starchitect28tb 6 11-5 David Pipe46 Tom Scudamore 148 151 169 p +? 164
    4 F92-18 Foxtail Hill28 8 11-4 Nigel Twiston-Davies52 Jamie Bargary3 147 148 169 p 160
    7 F15/64 Ballyalton28p 10 11-0 Ian Williams33 Tom O'Brien 143 148 168 +
    [174]
    160
    9 500-41 Splash Of Ginge28 9 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies52 Tom Bellamy 139 150 168 +? 164
    1 514-21 Clan Des Obeaux21 5 11-12 Paul Nicholls55 Harry Cobden 155 134 167 ++ 166
    6 52-115 Romain De Senam28ht 5 11-2 Paul Nicholls55 Noel Fehily 145 145 164 +
    169 Hd
    162
    10 424111 Deauville Dancer14t 6 10-8 David Dennis50 Aidan Coleman 137 116 164 +? p? 162
    11 022219 Guitar Pete28 7 10-5 Nicky Richards50 Ryan Day3 134 134 164 p?
    [167 Hd]
    163
    5 25/41- Long House Hall518ht 9 11-2 Dan Skelton74 Harry Skelton 145 NR 163

    This is a considerably lesser prize than the Betvictor (Mackeson) which was worth 50% more and the handicapper has had his say regarding the principals in that race. Those that reappear here are handicapped to finish in a heap and whatever runs its race on the day will do best but whether that will be quite good enough to win I’m not sure. Whisper gave Clan Des Obeaux a huge boost in the Hennessy but I’m not sure to what extent. He might be a good thing. He might not. He can win at short odds without my backing him.

    I plan to back Ballyalton. He got a bit of a creep-creep ride in the Mackeson and might do much better on this slightly better ground. King’s Odyssey is probably a reasonable enough saver, being top-rated with course form and the prospect of more to come.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #77
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    Ballyalton for me too. Backed him last time and given what I saw I'm happy to stick with him. Agree that the better ground will suit, as would being ridden slightly more prominently.

  19. #78
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Caspian Cavier Gold Cup 16th December, Chelters

    I’m torn between those two as well DO. Might see how it’s riding before going in as they are on the opposite ends of the scale for ground dependency.


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    Last edited by TheBear; 16th December 2017 at 11:25 AM.

  20. #79
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I give him an outside chance but wouldn't want to get involved at too much shorter. You might get 40s or 50s on the morning.
    You were spot-on, DO - I've topped-up at 40's each-way this morning.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 16th December 2017 at 11:26 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  21. #80
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good luck, GH. If mine don't win, may yours sail clear
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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