Eleven declared to run:
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...7-12-16/689051
Last edited by Grasshopper; 14th December 2017 at 1:04 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
LHH still in there. So far so good...
I expect Ballyalton will be my only other bet but still pondering the race.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th December 2017 at 1:20 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Think I'm starting to side with Ballyalton, don't think the conditions will be as testing as the Bet Victor which should suit. On course last month they altered the going to soft/heavy in places around the start of the first.
Sporting interest will have to be on Foxtail Hill. After mentioning Slash Of Ginge six weeks before the Bet Victor then abandoning him nearer the race, I couldn't bear it, if Foxtail Hill won and I didn't have pound coin on.
A bit of market support would help confidence levels.
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 2:57 PM.
Was expecting quite a few to come out but not perhaps some of the ones that did RDS was 48's on the machine last night and Foxtail Hill was 34's last time I'd checked so thought they were out tbh. Foxtail is still entered in the Junior Jumpers race as well so perhaps they'll see how the ground is before making a decision which race to take in.
Personally for my pair which made the line up the less rain the better.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Err, I mentioned Rory earlier on the thread, if that's what you are referring to. He just gave me a personal opinion (I believe) that the horse is handicapped to the hilt. I'm not sure if that's what connections said to him, but you'd have to ask him that.
I think 147 is a fair enough mark, based on what he's done. Rory also told me he's a good horse when they give him too much rope.
The smallish field of 11 gives the impression the winner is easy to find. In truth its very open and competitive. Foxtail Hill has as good a chance as anything, (me thinks).
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 3:37 PM.
Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 14th December 2017 at 3:46 PM.
Colin Phillips (14th December 2017)
Think it relates to his front running style, Ivan.
'He's good with too much rope', alas, he's good if other jockeys allow him too much of an easy lead.
HTH
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 3:51 PM.
Ivantheterrible (14th December 2017)
There's a possibility he is better than the winning margins suggested when he beat Saphir and Le Prezien, (especially Saphir). If he'd beaten those two by a bigger margin, I'd argue he'd now be rated in the mid-high 150's.
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 4:03 PM.
Furthermore, he kicked half a dozen lengths clear of Saphir three from home at Chelters in January, and thus possibly kicked for home too soon, to only win a length. Maybe it was a race-winning move, or maybe he was value for more in terms of winning distance?
Le Prezien was a heavily backed 5/2 favourite, the day Foxtail beat him. They pulled 11 lengths clear of the third this day. I just feel it is excellent form.
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 4:05 PM.
I'd agree that Foxtail isn't badly handicapped Marble but still feel he needs better ground to be seen at his best (over this trip anyway).
I don't know why you'd think he was better than the winning margin suggested against Le Prezien however I think it'll turn out in time that beating Le Prezien was a big performance in itself.
Last edited by Danny; 14th December 2017 at 4:07 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
I should have been more specific, Danny. I reckon he was value for more in terms of the beating he gave Saphir.
It's the actual horse he's stuck his neck out to beat (Le Prezien) that looks impressive on his CV.
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 4:30 PM.
I'll sort of post some reasoning for Le prezien as I don't really like to put bets up without some sort of rational thought behind it. When you come to this race you can on most occasions find the winner from what is now the Bet Victor form but not always the winner of that race. There will be all sorts of opinions as who will come out on top this time but here is my take on it. However you view the front 4 or 5 from the race especially the front 3 they've obviously all been adjusted in the Handicap proper and different people have different views as to how much weight effects a horse over a certain trip but whatever that may be we should all agree that it brings the first 4 closer together. However when we are talking a couple of lengths here and there which can basically boil down to one bad jump then I think its a sensible approach to see who has room for improvement. Splash Of Ginge had Bottomless conditions in his favour but also had a a nice passage in the race and barring a mistake at the 8th which didn't cost him much ground or momentum was almost foot perfect at every other fence. Starchitect like wise always held a good position and bar a bit of an error at a vital time 2 out similarly did pretty much everything right. Le prezien on the other hand didn't jump at all well and some might reason that he may not again. However my view of it is that at the first fence I'm not sure whether he made an error or that he was indeed impeded slightly by Thievenal who fell and although it didn't cost him much ground he was certainly snatched up slightly, bumped into and slightly unbalanced. Did this set the tone ? It could certainly be enough to unsettle a horse and sure enough he then went on to clout the next losing him any chance of a good early position in the race. He followed that up with several scruffy jumps which didn't aid his cause. With serveral of the ones to finish in the frame they were all prominent and held good positions just before they turned for home Le prezien was a good 10 lengths off them but made "rapid" headway to get on the tails of the leaders. Although he battled on well up the straight it would have been impossible to sustain that sort of burst all the way up the hill. That sort of burst shows to me a sign of a bit of class and it's also the sort of burst that wins races if you are not too far away when you start the move. Its simply not enough to say Jumped badly and hope he jumps better this time without some sort of reason as to why. Personally I feel that being slightly impeded at the first got him off to a very bad start which can be all important in these sort of races and secondly a smaller field here should mean less hussle and bussle and a clearer view of fences. The pace may also not be as strong which again nothing pressure jumping like jumping at pace. My thought is that with better jumping you'll see him this time sitting on the shoulders of the leaders turning for home without expending as much energy and you should see that burst of speed deployed later and all things being even I think that will be enough to take this down. If you look at his report from the Bet Victor it reads as did my old school reports of "Could've done better" and as such I feel that's reason to believe he can reverse form. I still believe that over this trip he'll be seen to better effect on better ground as he has plenty of speed but he obviously handles softer conditions. If the ground had of had the word good in the description then I'd of had a bigger bet but I'll just stick with the decent poke I already hold as Softer ground especially Heavy ground would certainly aid the cause of plenty of the opposition.
As you like, but when Le prezien wins the Ryan Air then Foxtail Hill will look incredibly well handicapped
Last edited by Danny; 14th December 2017 at 4:42 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Colin Phillips (14th December 2017), Marb (14th December 2017)
I watched that race again and still feel the same. Jamie Balgary set a hell of a gallop and rode Foxtail from the front for all he was worth, saving precious little for the climb up the hill. As I said this could have been a race winning move...but in terms of how its translates to Saturday, I don't think they'll get as strung out, so (possibly) he'll need a more restrained ride from up front.
Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2017 at 4:51 PM.
Deaville Dancer being under-estimated at 33/1 - probably because he hasn't run in the grade, and the trainer is about as fashionable as a pair of loon-pants.
Young, progressive and unexposed at the trip. Can't see why he should be the price he is, in a wide-open race.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Good luck with Le Prezien Danny I can't put you off its just a personal preference for me with Foxtail, I want to see him run the legs off these. Hopefully his arse will appear smaller and smaller to the rest the further he goes.
You have to take into account though Marble that against Saphir he was a stone lower would he have won carrying an extra stone ...probably not. Obviously he can improve but if you take a view that he was beaten in the Bet victor by 25L if conditions are similar wouldn't it stand to reason that he'd struggle to do much better here ? I like the horse a lot I do as before the ground went south I considered dutching him with Le prezien for the BV myself I just can't have him if conditions do turn out to be similar.
Last edited by Danny; 14th December 2017 at 4:56 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.