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Thread: The Road to the Grand National 2018

  1. #81
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    I'm having a sentimental bet on Vieux Lion Rouge e/w. You know he gets round, just doesn't stay. But at that weight he could trouble the places.

    Twiston Davies losing the plot, comparing Blaklion to Red Rum.

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    Skybet already gone NRNB, 5 places
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Reflected in their prices, though, but fair play to them.

    I can't help thinking the following headline at the ATR site is a bit misleading. My immediate reading of it was that just as Definitly Red heads the weights, so the idea of Total Recall heading the Irish challenge meant TR was the highest weighted. It turns out he's nowhere near highest-weighted of the Irish. He's 8lbs below Edwulf with others in between.


    Total Recall heads Irish bid for Grand National glory at Aintree

    A 40-strong Irish representation for the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree is headed by the Willie Mullins-trained Total Recall, who has been allotted 11st 1lb.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Senior Member fonz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    OK.

    I've just made my first and probably my biggest bet for the race.

    I was tempted to put it in the Will Win thread.

    You heard it here first.

    Noble Endeavor 50/1
    I'd like to think That Elliot is targeting the 3m hcp at the festival with him again, As far as Aintree is concerned though maybe not the perfect prep.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    OK.

    I've just made my first and probably my biggest bet for the race.

    I was tempted to put it in the Will Win thread.

    You heard it here first.

    Noble Endeavor 50/1

    A good solid animal -Davy Russell nailed on to ride if it runs-an excellent back to lay at the very least.

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  9. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by fonz View Post
    I'd like to think That Elliot is targeting the 3m hcp at the festival with him again, As far as Aintree is concerned though maybe not the perfect prep.
    The National is worth about seven times the Ultima. He won't be losing the National with a hard race at the festival this season. I think the plan is one run in Ireland (I'd suspect the Bobbyjo) to get him fitter then full steam ahead for Aintree.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th February 2018 at 11:06 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  11. #89
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    These are the last horses to actually get into the race, once the weights were announced, since 2000

    2000: 81st
    2001: 79th
    2002: 68th
    2003: 77th
    2004: 95th
    2005: 75th
    2006: 76th
    2007: 75th
    2008: 71st
    2009: 74th
    2010: 79th
    2011: 70th
    2012: 72nd
    2013: 76th
    2014: 76th
    2015: 67th
    2016: 59th
    2017: 71st

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    OK.

    I've just made my first and probably my biggest bet for the race.

    I was tempted to put it in the Will Win thread.

    You heard it here first.

    Noble Endeavor 50/1
    NE hasn't actually qualified yet, as of this year a horse has to have run in a race over fences earlier in the same season in order to be allowed to run in the National.

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    Elliott said this in the RP recently, “We gave him plenty of time off in order to keep him fresh for the spring and Aintree. He’ll have one run over hurdles somewhere and then go straight for the Grand National.”

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    Thunder And Roses about 73 on the list, 10:01 on a mark of 142. I'd like to see him run a decent race beforehand like.
    Last edited by Marble; 14th February 2018 at 11:27 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jft2005 View Post
    Elliott said this in the RP recently, “We gave him plenty of time off in order to keep him fresh for the spring and Aintree. He’ll have one run over hurdles somewhere and then go straight for the Grand National.”
    But he wasn't aware of the rule change at that time

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    DG, there's no mention of that in the conditions as given at the GN site:

    NE will have already qualified, I'm sure.
    Grade 3 handicap chase, £1 million total prize fund. Aintree, 5.15pm Saturday, April 14, 2018. 4m 2f 74yds over the Grand National fences.

    For seven-year-olds and upwards who, up to and including March 19 have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a steeple chase with an official distance description of’ two miles seven and a half furlongs’ or more and which are allotted a rating of 125 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 11.

    Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at closing may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including February 11 would merit a minimum rating of 125.

    To qualify, horses must have run at least three times in chases run under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Racing Authority up to and including February 11. At the Handicapper’s discretion, such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final.

    Entries close January 30, entries revealed January 31 (105 entries), weights revealed February 3, first scratchings deadline February 27, second scratchings deadline March 20, five-day confirmations April 9, final declarations 10am April 12.

    Maximum field of 40 plus four reserves.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    From Chris Cook of The Guardian

    "Gordon Elliott’s instinct was to give Noble Endeavour a spin over hurdles and go straight to Aintree. He corrected himself, once reminded of the new rule, and seemed satisfied that the horse had time for the necessary spin over fences. Still, these horses are leaving it late to qualify and they wouldn’t want a setback at the wrong moment."

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    I could make a good case for about 20 in that list with a slight lean towards the higher weights this year. Noble Endeavour would be high on my list.


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    Also the minimum rating up from 110 to 120, a new minimum age of seven and a requirement is to have been placed over three miles or more.
    Last edited by Maxbet; 14th February 2018 at 1:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    I could make a good case for about 20 in that list with a slight lean towards the higher weights this year. Noble Endeavour would be high on my list.


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    Mmm....... only one of the first 15 home last year carried over 11st (and that was only by 1lb.)and the previous year 7 of first 8 carried between 10st 5lb and 10st 9lb. Mind you the exception was Many Clouds.

  25. #99
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    The issue of weight becomes more acute the softer the ground.

    The CoC is doing his best [by artificially softening the ground] to make sure the class horses don't win and that's plain wrong.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    No more wrong than the handicapper rigging the weights to help the class horses.
    The older I get the better I was.

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