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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Might be misunderstood here, but I'm sure the GN course has to run soft now due to safety issues for the horses. Someone more educated may know different.
    Thatís the intention but itís been Good to Soft the past three years and due to weather on the day was run faster than standard in 2017 & 2015. By over 7 seconds in 2015.

    I appreciate standard times may count for less than usual given the unique nature of the race but thereís still a good chance it could be riding significantly quicker than TR may want

    For all that his Newbury win did come on Gd-Sft in a time quicker than standard so maybe heís an exception and is more versatile.
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  3. #42
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    Here's a wee curiosity:

    UTPT has gone blue at Betfair for the National this morning and is 'only' 50/1-ish.

    All this a week or two after they said he was being given the rest of the season off.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  4. #43
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  6. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Here's a wee curiosity:

    UTPT has gone blue at Betfair for the National this morning and is 'only' 50/1-ish.

    All this a week or two after they said he was being given the rest of the season off.

    UTPT is not entered as far as I can see .

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  8. #45
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    I'm looking at Thunder And Roses for a little anti-post bet. He's an Irish National winner (2015), beating Rule The World, who went on to win this. Now I need to watch the replay of last years renewal, but I know that he was badly hampered by a loose horse and very unlucky when unseating rider. He's entered in a grand national trial at Punchestown in ten days, so can hopefully improve on his decent fourth place at Gowran last week. 66/1 looks a price worth speculating at for Aintree.
    Last edited by Marble; 31st January 2018 at 6:13 PM.

  9. #46
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    The excitement takes another step up...

    With the entries to hand, Joe Punter can pretty accurately forecast the weights for about 100 of the 105 entries so if he/she wanted to get ahead over the next fortnight they could do so. However, I will be waiting until after next weekend as there's plenty of good racing in the meantime.

    It would be great if some bookie got ahead of the rest by offering NRNB or/and BOG at this stage!
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  10. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I'm looking at Thunder And Roses for a little anti-post bet. He's an Irish National winner (2015), beating Rule The World, who went on to win this. Now I need to watch the replay of last years renewal, but I know that he was badly hampered by a loose horse and very unlucky when unseating rider. He's entered in a grand national trial at Punchestown in ten days, so can hopefully improve on his decent fourth place at Gowran last week. 66/1 looks a price worth speculating at for Aintree.
    Yes. In my preview last year I wrote:
    Beat Rule The World in the 2015 Irish National and the latter won this off 7lbs higher so must have a chance off this 8lbs higher mark. 5lbs better off for Ĺ length with Pleasant Company from the influential Bobbyjo Chase (Roi Des Francs and Lord Windermere the best part of a furlong behind) for which the Irish handicapper has raised him 6lbs. Has no immediate entries for UK handicaps but likely to be 10lbs higher if he did. The main difference with Rule The World is that the latter had lots of Grade 1 hurdling form.
    He was one of many bets (!) I had in the race.

    However that quote:
    Has no immediate entries for UK handicaps but likely to be 10lbs higher if he did.
    would make me wonder what mark he'll be off here. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10lbs. That would probably rule him out of calculations for me.
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  11. #48
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    His Irish mark is 141 as his entry at Punchestown tells us. Fwiw, (as I may take a bit of 66's that freely available), i'd rather he runs well in the Punchestown trial (assuming he might run there?), and finishes in the first three or four. Then head to Aintree in good form, hopefully on a mark of about 148 (tops).

    At least this way I'd know that I'll get a run for my money and he'll definately make the cut, stand a good chance and also give me pretty decent value at 66/1.

    That would be my preferred option or eventuality in the lead up to this great race. I wouldn't want him going to Aintree in poor form as a 10 year old battling to make the cut at the foot of the weights that's for sure.
    Last edited by Marble; 31st January 2018 at 7:32 PM.

  12. #49
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    Yes, a lot will depend on how Mr Smith views his runs since last spring. The Irish official has, as you say, dropped him 5lbs. I'd suggest Mr Smith might not be so reluctant to do so but what I don't know is whether his raised mark last spring was done in consultation between the two, as it is for higher-rated horses.

    I'd agree that 148 is about as high as he'll be.

    I'd also expect him to be 66/1 much nearer the day unless he does something dramatic after the weights are out.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st January 2018 at 8:19 PM.
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  14. #50
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    Couple of questions.

    A) When are the weights out?
    B) Do you not think his price would contract a fair bit if he won a decent trial, (before and/or after) the weights coming out?
    Last edited by Marble; 31st January 2018 at 8:39 PM.

  15. #51
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    Just read the weights come out about Valentines day, so a couple days after the trial at Punchestown. I'll be keeping an eye on his entries.

  16. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    B) Do you not think his price would contract a fair bit if he won a decent trial, (before and/or after) the weights coming out?
    Yes and I'd say if you really fancy him to win a decent trial (or even run very well in one) it would be wise to take the price but I'd wait until the morning of the trial race. You might well get more than 66/1 on Betfair by that stage and it's easier to lay off at shorter if you've already bet on the exchange.
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  17. #53
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    Cheers. I just see a little possibility that with a bit of luck, he could grab a place at Aintree. The hope-bit is that he'll do something beforehand to justify my belief that 66/1 is an excellent each way price. I must admit it's likely I'm putting 2 & 2 together and getting 5. But faith and hope is always needed in these scenario's!
    Last edited by Marble; 31st January 2018 at 9:13 PM.

  18. #54
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    Right now I'm thinking that Blaklion and Definitly Red, both at about 10/1, must be among the worst bets so far this season.

    Blaklion killed his chance by winning at Aintree earlier in the season and Definitly Red killed his on Saturday there. His new mark of 167, which will probably be compressed to 165 on the day, means he'll need to be a better horse than the likes of Sizing John to have any chance. And he'll have to get round. I backed DR last season and his form this season suggests it wasn't a bad bet off 149 but there's no guarantee he'd have beaten One For Arthur on the day. He's now rated as though he smashed it out of sight.

    I'm very happy with one of my early ante-post bets for this year's race. I backed The Last Samuri at 40/1 early in December and still think 20/1 might be generous. He's shaped so far this season as though he's improved a good bit yet he's been campaigned to disguise it nicely while getting him close to serious fitness. I think he'd run very well in the Gold Cup but the national is worth so much more money.
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  19. #55
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    I like Blaklion a lot -looks a real Aintree specialist to me -could be matched at a short price in running -anyone laying him will need balls of steel.

  20. #56
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    I fancied Gold Present at the beginning of the season and nothing other than a decent increase in weight has changed my mind.

    I'll be keeping an eye on how a few run over the next month or 2.

  21. #57
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    I have a feeling that thing is an utter beast DJ and capable of anything ! I'd be interested to see where it goes next.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  22. #58
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    Gold Present for me too.
    Reckon he'll be getting about 10lbs from Blaklion so will race off about 11 stone dead.
    Last edited by tiggers1972; 1st February 2018 at 9:54 AM.

  23. #59
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    I was very surprised to see no Native River.

    Total Recall and Gold Present would be my picks at this early stage, depending on what Phil Smith does to the Mullins horse.
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  24. #60
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    Total Recall will be hammered for Newbury. You need only see what he did to Whisper to know.

    Edit - just checked. It looks like Total Recall is on 156 (from 147). Makes sense. Whisper went up 8lbs.

    I'm not sure 156 gets to the bottom of TR. It's a question of whether the hard race at Newbury did.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st February 2018 at 9:54 AM.
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