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Thread: The Road to the Grand National 2018

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    The Road to the Grand National 2018

    With the first really big handicaps of the season just around the corner and 25/1 the field, anyone got any strong fancies at this stage?

    Me? I think it's a one horse race...

    (I'm such a tease )
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Un Temps Pour Tout?

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    Blaklion, under a more restrained ride.

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    Native River was made for this race.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyB View Post
    Un Temps Pour Tout?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    You reckon he'll win the Gold Cup and The National, DO??

    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    At this early point in the season I feel one should be looking outside the fancied horses to get AP value.

    One that caught my eye when mentioned in Harrington's stable tour comments was Sandymount Duke. It was said that the horse would have the National as a target. Maybe that is a reference to the Irish National however this improving,good ground horse has fine form over 3 miles and has run at Aintree. Some of his stablemates are also likely to be contenders but 66/1 allows an involvement for a small amount and might provide a triumph of hope over expectation.
    "Do not think the moment was imagined, do not think of strategies like this." Leonard Cohen

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    Mr Diablo the one for me
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    You reckon he'll win the Gold Cup and The National, DO??



    I think he could win the Gold Cup but I'm not sure he's being trained for it. Last year the Gold Cup winner got £327k, the National winner got about 70% more than that.

    I backed him for the Gold Cup after I gave him a higher rating for wining the Ultima than I'd given the Gold Cup winner and emailed David Pipe to tell him how good I thought the horse was. The reply was very non-committal, thanking me for my interest but nothing was being ruled in or out (words to that effect other than that they might train him for the National and he might get an entry for the Gold Cup).

    Anyroads, I backed him again for the Gold Cup this morning each-way at 100/1. I still suspect he won't run but hey...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th November 2017 at 12:49 PM.
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    Good post that DO and I'm of a similar way of thinking.

    In a surely unprecedented after timing double, I'd backed him for the Ultima in 2016 and was all set to back Singlefarmpayment in this year's renewal but having missed the morning prices made a last minute, lager fueled decision that Pipe would have been perfectly justified in running him in the Gold Cup but had instead elected to run him again in the Ultima with top weight so must have thought he was up to carrying it, which of course he was.

    He's definitely worthy of a place in the Gold Cup and I'll be gutted on the day at missing the three figures prices if they do go down that route (though I doubt they will) but I'm not sure he'll be so suited to the Grand National. He's jumped around Cheltenham twice in what is always a fiercely competitive handicap and the Aintree fences are obviously not what they were but I reckon he's one of those horses who's styles are perfectly suited to Ultima - Holywell was another - and he'll need a hell of a lot of luck in running.

    All horses will of course but in Native River I'd be considerably more confident that he'll be ridden handy and he strikes me as much more of a solid jumping proposition.

    All that said, due to my financially biased affection for the horse I would not let him go unbacked.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Vyta Du Roc. Nicky has it over hurdles tomorrow plainly protecting his mark although 140 wouldn't have got in last year.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Minella Rocco is the one I'll monitor closely.

    Jonjo already talking about lowering his sights (i.e. arranging some handicap-mark relief), he likes good ground, and he stays forever. The 33/1 available looks a fair-enough price, imo.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Minella Rocco is the one I'll monitor closely.
    Until the first at least.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Last year i managed to Vieux Lion Rouge at 66s, One For Arthur at 25s and Cause of Causes at 33s.

    This year I'm struggling as I can't find any trainers that have specifically said they are targeting the national. I short listed 3 that I think could run a race in the national. I've just not seen/heard anything of the said horses targets.

    Premier Bond
    Gold Present (not sure it'd stay) both at 66s.

    Also for some reason I have scribbled Lord Scoundrel down? Think it's an Elliot horse, but no price available on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Len Madeiros View Post
    Blaklion, under a more restrained ride.

    Absolutely.

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    I don't normally start thinking seriously about the National until after the Hennessy at the earliest and usually some time in the new year.

    It was doing the Hennessy the other day that got me thinking (plus I have time nowadays) as I was expecting UTPT to be in the field.

    This morning I checked the RP site to see if he had any entries and it seems there's an archive article that mentions him going for the Gold Cup. I let my membership lapse so can't access the article but I presume it's a recent one. I'll take that as a positive.

    Of course, things happen during the course of a season. I reckon this time last season One For Arthur wouldn't have been on many people's - if any - radar for the Grand National but on the day he was on just about everybody's. Even so, my mark for UTPT would be good enough to win just about any of the last 20 or 30 renewals. (Assuming it's accurate, of course!)

    I study form. My brother is an instinctive punter. He's a big Blaklion fan who also believes he "did a Hedgehunter" last season, ie ran with the choke out for too long on his first attempt. I'm open to that possibility but I'm not convinced he will be handicapped leniently on the day. He'll probably get an extra few pounds for his race form.

    Vieux Lion Rouge has now had two goes and two completions. Both times my figures have him running 7-10lbs below his other form so although he can jump round and stay as well as negotiate Haydock effectively, this maybe isn't his course or maybe he doesn't truly stay at National pace. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't target the race this time.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
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    Based on that assessment Vieux Lion Rouge should be looking at Fairyhouse instead of Aintree.

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    90%+ of UK-trained handicappers are about 6lbs badly in compared with their Irish counterparts.

    Only exceptionally well handicapped UK horses have any chance over there.

    I'd say Chepstow or Ayr.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th November 2017 at 1:55 PM.
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    I've taken an average if 150 this morning about Sugar Baron, in the expectation of a bold show in the London National at Sandown on Saturday.

    After looking like he would be hopelessly tailed-off at one point, he was staying-on like a freight-train in the 3m1f handicap chase at Cheltenham's November Meeting; ending-up a fast-diminishing half-length second to What A Moment. This longer trip is sure to suit him much better, and the track should be more to his liking too, after he finished a really good 5th in a blanket-finish to the Whitbread last season.

    He likely needs to win at least one good handicap over the course of the season, to get a high-enough mark to get into the National, and he will hopefully get the job done on Saturday. I've also backed him at 7/1 for Sandown.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    That's pretty sound, GH.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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