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Thread: The Road To The 2018 Champion Chase

  1. #461
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Does anyone give Min a chance?
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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  3. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Does anyone give Min a chance?
    around 25%, if lining up
    Last edited by JamesRB; 13th February 2018 at 5:41 PM.

  4. #463
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He has a chance yes. Not as confident as I was before the weekend mind.

  5. #464
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Agree with Euro’s position, though was never “confident” as Altior only had a deferred start rather than a genuine problem. The concern was Altior came back and did the kind of number he did at Newbury. He’ll be hard beaten.
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  6. #465
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    Was there ever any explanation for Altior's below par effort in the Arkle? If that's what he does over fences at the Festival, he is at the least vulnerable.
    The older I get the better I was.

  7. #466
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Nothing formal I don’t think, but (whatever Tanlic says) it was a mighty performance in the Game Spirit in his prep, and may have taken more out of him than they realised.

    Bears repeating too, that Altior never looked in any danger of being beaten in the Arkle either.
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  8. #467
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    I'm not sure he was below par in the Arkle. I went very high with my figures for it. I don't think they went that fast through the race and the closing sectional was lightning fast. Off a stronger pace he would have, as Para Handy used to say, annanalated them.
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  9. #468
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    Douvan entered over 2m4f this weekend and price crumbling for the Ryanair.
    I called this in September, just guess not under these circumstances.

  10. #469
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    The same Douvan that was out for the season before Xmas!

  11. #470
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    If EC1 was still around I'm fairly sure he would have a couple of very high speed figure for Min over fences. To add to that he is a natural chaser so it's no surprise that he's improved again since he went chasing. What we don't know is how much relative to Altior, and the line we have on them through the Supreme.

    If it's to be believed an injury had an impact on Min's run. Whether that's the case or not none of us really know. What we do kn ow is that it was a seriously high class Supreme and Min barring one flat run against Simply Ned has looked the part over fences.

    The flip side is Altior has had an easy time of it after his breathing op, but his Rolls Royce engine looked as good as ever at the weekend. What possibly counts against him is that he hasn't been extended at any point this season, so is Min in a better place if they get in to a battle up the hill?

    Ultimately it'll come down to the jumping and if they're both clean Altior wins, but I don't think the race will be a reflection of the current odds, and Min will go very close, and can win if Altior makes mistakes.

    As I said previously I will likely cover some multiples by backing Min or laying Altior on the day. I have one very nice multiple with Might Bite from the King George running on to Buveur D'air and Altior that's paying c2.5k, plus a host of others that include the same two and three horses for the Festival, plus the three of them in combination with others. So maybe I'm being overly cautious about their relative chances and playing Min up because of what looks on paper to be a very good position if they all stay fit and healthy.

  12. #471
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    Just an additional thought with regards Douvan. Even if Douvan takes up his entry, after such a long layoff is it not more likely they'll wait for Aintree and Punchestown giving more time to recover? Min deserves to take his chance anyway, and on my figures is capable of serving it up to Altior. Douvan may not at this stage be able to produce his best which would make the decision a relatively easy one however tempted they may be.

  13. #472
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    At the prices Iíd be keen on Min and take my chance Altior wonít produce his very best.

    The fact that Min didnít run again that season after the Supreme gives some credence to the injury story. That said itís hard to see anything beating Altior that day. The way he finishes races is something to behold and tailor made for Cheltenham.


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  14. #473
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    Anyone who has seen Min in the flesh will know that he's a totally different animal now to the one who ran in the Supreme. That day he could best be described as very narrow and unfurnished but he has now filled out and looks much more like a proper racehorse. It also seemed to me that the physical maturing was matched by the mental side and he seemed full of himself on the stable visits. However, I think we have to allow that Altior has matured as well and it's impossible to know how the relative progress will work out. If pushed, I'd suggest that Min would get a lot closer than 7 lengths but maybe not enough to beat Altior if he's at the top of his game (another imponderable).
    At the start of the season I had it from the horse's (trainer's) mouth that they thought that both Min and Douvan were capable of going up in trip but Douvan had more basic speed and the thinking at that time was CC for Douvan and Ryanair for Min if everything went smoothly. Of course, it hasn't and my belief is that it's now very much a 50/50 call if they both get there.
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  15. #474
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Iíve got MIn in a nice trixie but in the Ryanair so Iím praying for a Lazarus like job with Douvan!


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  16. #475
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Entries left after today's scratchings

    QM18.JPG

  17. #476
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    Fox Norton 12/1 looks the ew bet of the race (at the moment at least )

  18. #477
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Delighted to see Great Field left in there.
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  19. #478
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    Iíve got MIn in a nice trixie but in the Ryanair so Iím praying for a Lazarus like job with Douvan!


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    Yeah Iím still hoping my bet on Min for the Ryanair isnít dead yet but not optimistic. Douvan entry on Sunday looks like another nail in the coffin



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  20. #479
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Any chance Altior bounces?

    I'm a believer in horses bouncing and it worries me when they return from long absences.

    In this case, I think he probably won't as All in all it was probably a very minor blip keeping him out.
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  21. #480
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Altior wasn't returning from injury - he was effectively just starting out late - and I tend to think that the 'bounce' factor doesn't apply in that scenario.

    Altior's campaign is effectively the same as Native River's (except with an added wind-op), and I don't think anyone figures Native River to bounce next time out. He'll be beaten, but that's not the same thing.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 14th February 2018 at 5:39 PM.
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