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Thread: Cheltenham Festival 2018 Antepost Bets

  1. #101
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Philip Reynolds, has entered Presenting Percy in the John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle.
    Reynolds said: "I’d like to see some let-up with regard to the rain if they are to run, though I'd like to run them. The ground is testing. The plan is that Presenting Percy will go in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, Mall Dini the National Hunt Chase as a second-season novice."

  2. #102
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    First day Mullins four-timer:

    Getabird - Supreme
    Footpad - Arkle
    Faugheen - Champion
    Lets Dance - Mares

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aughex View Post
    First day Mullins four-timer:

    Getabird - Supreme
    Footpad - Arkle
    Faugheen - Champion
    Lets Dance - Mares
    Already on. Let's Dance to fall at the last? With the Mullins second string getting the nod?

    Said that, Apple's Jade is a sure thing for the Mares. My banker of the week.

  4. #104
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Apple’s Jade should definitely run in the Mares. Her participation in the Stayers would unthinkable, irrational and foolish- as well as being potentially very painful for me.
    Abolish the allowance in Championship races!

  5. #105
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Supasundae makes my year. Will settle for a place.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aughex View Post
    First day Mullins four-timer:

    Getabird - Supreme
    Footpad - Arkle
    Faugheen - Champion
    Lets Dance - Mares
    What price none of them?

  7. #107
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    My Cheltenham Fancies at this current time.

    SUPREME- If the cap fits & Sharjah EW NRNB
    ARKLE- Footpad win & Petit Mouchiorn 6/1 EW NRNB
    CHAMPION HURDLE- Buvuer Dair
    MARES HURDLE- Apples Jade
    NATIONAL HUNT CHASE- Jury duty (NAP)
    CHAPS-

    NEPTUNE- SAMCRO Win GETABIRD 5/1 EW NRNB
    CORAL CUP- Bleu Et rouge 16 & Voix du reve 14 EW NRNB
    RSA- Sutton Place SUTTON PLACE 10/1 EW NRNB
    CHAMPION CHASE- Altior win Douvan EW 4/1 NRNB
    CROSS COUNTRY- Cause of Causes Win Tiger Roll 10/1 EW NRNB
    FRED WINTER- Sao 20/1 EW NRNB
    CHAMPION BUMPER-

    JLT- SUTTON PLACE 9/1 NRNB
    PERTEMPS- Voix du reve (If he qualify's)
    RYANAIR- Waiting Patiently NRNB
    STAYERS HURDLE- Finians Oscar 12/1 EW & BACARDYS 14/1 EW NRNB
    BROWN ADVISORY- Bouvreuil 20/1 EW NRNB
    MARES NOVICE- MARIAS BENEFIT 4/1 EW NRNB
    KIM MUR- SQUAUTATOR

    TRUMPIH- STORMY ISLAND 12/1 EW NRNB
    COUNTY HURDLE-
    ALBERT BARTLETT- Santini 16/1 NRNB
    GOLD CUP- OUR DUKE 11/1 & CONEY ISLAND 8/1NRNB
    MARTIN PIPE-
    GRAND ANNUAL-


    Good Luck all

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    What price none of them?
    Sorry, its Getabird 10/3(dangers: plenty), Footpad 6/4(dangers: almost none), Faugheen 5/1(dangers: himself), Lets Dance 5/1(dangers: AJ). So lots of combined dangers but at almost 400/1 worth it.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    What price none of them?
    A fourfold on the reverse prices (eg. Getabird 3/10 to not win) comes out at 2.12/1.
    The older I get the better I was.

  10. #110
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    Singles.
    Footpad- 15/8 Arkle NRNB
    Might Bite - Various prices from 10s all the way to 5s
    Douvan - 10/1 Ryanair. 11/4 Champ. 7/1 NRNB Champ
    Finans Oscar - All novice chase based races at various prices. All dead
    Sharjah - 10/1 Supreme
    Apple's Jade - 11/4 all the way to even for Mares
    Faugheen- 6/1 and 11/4 NRNB
    Buveur - 5/2

    Doubles
    Apple's Shakira - Triumph
    Samcro - Ballymore -16/1
    A host of other doubles all with Finians Oscar for the JLT

    A lot of trebles with the first leg in, which was Might Bite for the King George. Some still alive, some dead with the inclusion of Finans Oscar.

    A few lucky 15s, some alive some dead. Actually praising myself at some prices I've managed to get.

    And a host of lucky 63s. All but 2 have Might Bite for King George, some do include Finians Oscar.

    Also have a request a bet alive from SkyBet which was the Gold Cup King George double. Can't quite remember the price. Returns a half decent number though.

    In short still a lot of positive bets alive, unfortunately a fair few dead with me going balls deep on Finians Oscar. My love for the horse sadly misplaced.

  11. #111
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post

    In short still a lot of positive bets alive, unfortunately a fair few dead with me going balls deep on Finians Oscar. My love for the horse sadly misplaced.

    I think 3s for the Cleeve is fair. Get it all back in one go.

  12. #112
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've taken 20/1 Elixir De Nutz for the Triumph (NRNB/BOG) to smallish stakes in case he runs Apple's Shakira close tomorrow or even beats her.

    I don't have any gen on the horse Hobbs knows all there is to know about training juveniles and if he feels this is the right race in which to introduce this import then I'm happy to trust his judgment. And it isn't unusual for Triumph winners not to be seen until after Christmas these days.

    But it is as much a leap of faith as anything.

    With the concessions, there's very minimal risk.
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  13. #113
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    Not quoted in betfair betting on Triumph -not a good sign.Your worst nightmare is that he is beaten by a hundred yards and they decide he is a nice horse for next season and take him to the Triumph for a nice spin round Cheltenham.

  14. #114
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Can't see that happening to be honest but it's a risk I don't mind taking.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th January 2018 at 12:57 AM.
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  15. #115
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    I've posted this up over at my place having done a mid season review of how I'm doing overall. Some of it won't make sense obviously as its posted for somewhere else but it has a full list of my ante-post positions so I thought I'd post it up and you can take no notice of the ramblings.

    O.k this week is a week to get my head together, as such I've been through my betting and bank accounts to see the full picture of how I've done so far and where I stand. I'm pretty sure the following is as accurate as can be. So far out of my own money I've invested £1540 since my return. Current betting funds available now £1450 which I have to admit even after viewing my antepost book this morning is still a little disappointing considering how well things were going prior to Christmas and the result I had boxing day. Taking into account though I've had a real good hiding since Christmas and completely made a mess of my staking having a small bet on William Henry for the Lanzarote (the only thing that has gone right this year thus far) yet staking 10 times that on a failed Betfair ante-post project seems bizarre at best.

    The up to date Ante-post book then. As most of these are NRNB it seems easier to put APRA (ante-post rules apply) by the ones that are not.

    Singles

    Gold Cup
    Double Shuffle £25 e/w 45/1 (APRA)
    Double Shuffle £50 e/w 40/1
    Blaklion £27.50 win 40/1 (APRA)
    Coneygree £10 e/w 40/1

    Champion Hurdle outright
    Call me lord 40/1 £20 e/w
    Ch'tibello 40/1 £25 e/w (APRA)

    Champion Hurdle w/o Boover
    Call me Lord 25/1 £80 e/w (Max Allowed)
    Ch'tibello 22/1 £20 win

    Ultima Handicap
    Snigle Farm Payment 16/1 £20 e/w

    Stayers Hurdle
    Yanworth 20/1 £20 win (APRA)

    That's it really as far as singles although I do have a few sheckel bets on the exchanges at silly win prices but its easier to list what I stand to win should they come in than list the bits and dabs I've had on which would total less than a tenna on most and not much more than that on the biggest.

    Gold cup
    Saphir de rheu (don't ask) £520
    Last Samuri (dead bet) £5476

    Ryan Air
    Le prezien 5k

    Ballymore
    Black op £1790

    Albert Bartlett
    Black op £1823

    Aside from this I have a total of £510 in multiples which I'm not going to list as its a very long list. They would mostly include those selections listed above. I have the notable £45 e/w double that I'd posted with Top notch and Double Shuffle earlier on the thread that is by far the biggest.

    Other notable selections and rough guides to their NRNB prices are.

    Long House Hall 25/1 and Le prezien 20/1 for the brown plate or whatever is.

    For the County hurdle I slipped in Betslo's Ivan Gorbatov 25/1 in a couple and Mohaayed 33/1 as well.

    I think Yanworths included in a few at around 10's / 9's on a NRNB basis for the stayers.

    So that's just over a grand for the festival already.

    The only other real bets outstanding outside of the festival.

    £30 e.w Irish roe 25/1 Betfair Hurdle (APRA)
    £60's worth of exchange sheckel bets on the National including the likes of
    Present Man, Total Recall, Caroles detrier and Pilgrims bay (who probably won't make it in now) .

    and finally need Vieux lion rouge to make the first 4 for just over £1500 off the double with the shuffle in the KG.

    Phew!

    Overall going to try and steady things up a bit unless I see something outstanding I'm going to get a bit cagey over the next few weeks and let the situation play out. Its not as good a situation as it should have been given the results I've had this season but coming off the back of a 2 year layoff its not too bad 6 months in and if I'd have been offered this position 6 months ago I'd have taken it.

    Overall aim ? By the time they cross the line in the National I'm hoping to have accumulated 5k total bank its looking less likely than it was 3 weeks ago but I live in hope.
    Last edited by broadsword; Today at 01:17 PM.
    Last edited by Danny; 29th January 2018 at 2:22 PM.
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  16. #116
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    How do you find time to look into handicaps etc Danny? Is this a full time thing for you, or something to mess around with?

    Outside of big handicaps and graded races, I find myself having absolouetly no time to put any serious effort into studying prices etc. Still don't even know how to use Betfair such is the lack of time I have. That and when I do I really can't be arsed, happy sticking to 3 or 4 books that's I use.

    If I could work out the concept of laying, and how percentages etc I'd have made a fortune. Don't think it's quite that easy though.

  17. #117
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    Erm that is a question that would take a hell of a lot of answering and not exactly sure what you mean by a full time thing ? I'm certainly not a full time punter and not even sure I could call myself a winning one.

    At one time in my youth I was a bright kid unfortunately I had very little guidance in life and lost my way to drugs and alcohol for quite a long time as well as being a nutcase gambler for a number of years. Having worked hard from leaving school (which I always have done) as well as making a lot of money through other various things I found myself at 25 years of age not only without a pot to **** in but in mountains of debt. To cut a long story short I met a girl with a young daughter and I fell in love (something I thought I'd never do) and ended up being a dad (something else I vowed never to do ). I cleaned up my act but I was isolated, everybody I knew at the time was into drugs amongst other dodgy stuff. It was at that point I first turned a computer on and found a little racing forum. A couple of guys on there helped me learn a thing or two. The forum and the interest in racing helped to distract me from addictions and other mental issues I have, in short it keeps my brain active. I got a Job in a foundry where basically apart from a few years as a pourer pouring molten metal I've spent most my time breaking cast from scrap with a hammer all night. I've been doing that **** for about 14years now. When I first got the Job I'd work any where doing anything between 60-84hrs a week to drag myself out of a mountain of debt which eventually I did.

    Once I was straight I started to punt horses just having a few quid out of my wages each week and I was utterly useless known really as the forum clown over at my last place but all the time learning from mistakes. I can't thank the guys who educated me enough and although I've lost touch with them I still owe them a great deal. So came the point I started to make some headway I built up a betting bank of 18k despite still doing a lot of things wrong (which to me was insane as I'd always lived week to week) over a period of around 18-months. I then did the most ridiculously stupid thing and brought a house. After paying the deposit and all that shizzle that was followed by various disasters which saw me struggling financially again and just about keeping the wolf from the door. I tried to get things going again but along with a lot of things going wrong my step daughter hit 13 and turned into the devil for 3 years. This combined with a number of betting frustrations (being nutted out of 5 figure payouts half a dozen times in 3 months ) led me to give the game up for a while. I thought I was done with it for good.

    So the position currently stands as I'm still swinging a hammer 12 hours a night but only 4 nights a week these days. I've only got just less than 4 years left on my mortgage having only brought the house 6 years ago. I returned to punting as said 6 months ago starting off with £60 per week out of my hard earned just really trying to get started again. I'm not that far from convinced that the last time I built that 18k up I didn't just get lucky for 18 months. If I have any long term aim its just to get my mortgage finished at which point I'll seek alternative employment as I've hated working nights and being away from my family and Its also pretty damn bad for your health which is even worse for me as I'm currently transporting my brain around in what could already be described as a carcass due to the exploits in my youth.

    That's probably too much personal information for most and I apologise if its a bit uncouth but I always try and be straight with people.

    I just started to get the feeling Double J that you are thinking my opinion is worth something or that I know something you don't. Nothing could be further from the truth really and there would be far better guys on here and elsewhere to ask for advice or guidance. I'm a complete guesser or for want of a better phrase, Spook, one of the guys who taught me most of what I do know once referred to me as a Desperate Chancer and I think that is probably the most apt description I could hope for.

    As for how do I get the time ? I work what is basically including travelling and shower a 13.5hr shift I sleep around 3 hours most days. These days my daughter is at College and my mrs at work through the week so I find myself at a loose end.

    In terms of handicaps I always work from official ratings but you must understand what that means. I don't use them as a rating its more I try to decide where the handicapper has made mistakes whether it be through over rating or under rating horses or finding horses that I feel still have more to come. Whether that be visually or through collateral lines neither view is to be trusted fully and imo even your own judgement you should allow a margin for error. If I find something I think has 10lb to a stone in hand at a price then a lot of the time I won't even bother looking at the opposition too much because I just know that sort of margin is enough to be there or there abouts if the price is right.

    If you want to test yourself a bit Double J take a look at a horse called Mohaayed and try and come up with how you might rate him and then ask if he's really a 33/1 NRNB shot for a county hurdle if lining up. If you take a look and see what you come up with and I'll post my views as to why I think its more than possible he still has a few pounds in hand and could be a contender for the county.
    Last edited by Danny; 29th January 2018 at 5:46 PM.
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  19. #118
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    A very brave and honest post, Danny.

    Hope you manage to get of what must be a mind-numbing job.

    The very best of luck, Sir.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  21. #119
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    A very brave and honest post, Danny.

    Hope you manage to get of what must be a mind-numbing job.

    The very best of luck, Sir.
    Seconded.

    Without checking, I'd be pretty sure Mohaayed will be on the radar for something like the County for me too but I wouldn't go in ante-post on anything in the race until more firms offer NRNB.

    Having spent a lot of time in the last week or so reviewing last season's festival - something I haven't really done before as I only bought my PVR just before last season's festival - I do feel better armed going into this one. It has given me a 'feel' for horses, trainers and/or owners for whom only this event matters.

    For example, I'll be very interested in anything Joseph O'Brien sends over.

    To come back on to the topic, one of the best decisions I ever made was to compile my own ratings, something I started doing while I was still a student and developed more intensely after I was married a few years and realised I was getting somewhere with it. I've evolved and developed my methods pretty much ever since and am always looking for ways of improving them, hence my interest in [other people's interpretation of] sectional times.

    One of the next best decisions I made was to focus only on the better races. I very seldom bet midweek now, outside of the festivals and other televised meetings. In fact, I really don't even look at any midweek racing. I tend not to even look at the threads on here that deal with it.

    But earlier time spent looking at midweek racing, studying results, compiling my own time ratings etc probably gave me more of a positive grounding than I realised at the time. I probably stumbled upon what later became known as the bounce theory without realising that's what it was. I noticed in the early days of Pipe and Scudamore that some of their winners were posting some very serious time ratings then losing at short odds. I then noticed after two or three runs the horse would make a comeback. I just presumed they were going easy on it to take away any hype the first fast time might have attracted. But, of course, it was probably the bounce since those Pipe horses were out every week in those days.

    Once I started concentrating on the better televised weekend races my success became more consistent and over time I could gradually increase my stakes with a fair degree of confidence that I could withstand a losing run.

    I can state with complete honesty that I am miles and miles ahead of the bookies in the sense that I have a separate bank account for my activity which is extremely healthy despite, over the years, withdrawing chunks to cover holidays (three a year at one point), part-payments for cars and jaunts to Cheltenham, Ascot and Newbury to meet fellow-forumites. Mrs O has no idea what's in that account as I downplay all my activity. When she asks me if I won I might say something like yes but only enough to cover the fish suppers or a bottle of wine. She knows I'm downplaying it, I think, because my blabbermouth brother can't keep a secret from his wife!

    I'll maybe talk about my 'Ocean King coat' (which I no longer have, of course) bought with the proceeds of a 50p ew ante-post 25/1 bet on the Cesarewitch winner, for a laugh. Recently at a party my daughter said, "Oh, you're wearing your Rooster Booster suit!" a really smart made-to-measure bit of gear which didn't really dent my returns from his Champion Hurdle. I think that's something I get from my father. He was always buying stuff with his winnings. My brother also still talks about the suit he bought with his winnings from Ten Up in the Gold Cup.

    But she has no idea just how much is in that account. I can't tell her as she'd either faint, get really mad that I've been keeping it from her (she doesn't know how much of it went on one of her cars) or she'd ask me to put it into the general domestic savings aimed at getting our house in Spain. Aint happenin'!!

    Anyway, I'm rambling again...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th January 2018 at 11:28 PM.
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  23. #120
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Good luck to you, Danny!
    It takes a lot to get up and going when you hit rock bottom and I know too many that have not put in the effort which you clearly have done.

    Whilst I generally adopt similar rules to Desert Orchid as to weekend and Festival races I make sure I keep the wife informed of my betting. She's not stupid and always knew when I had a big bet even when I didn't tell her. This makes me a little more cautious because though never asked why I still make sure that there is a good reason, just in case. I have a nominal pot built up over the years rather than a separate account-(at current interest rates!).

    Apologies for off topic-responding to earlier posts.

    AntePost. I have reverted to former tactics in doing a large number of multiples. Yankees, Super Yankees and several Heinz. Many of them would bust the bookie's limits but I don't expect every horse to win and if I collected a couple of bets which exceed limits I wouldn't cry too much. In almost all cases 2 winners would cover total stakes as the average SP is over 10/1. Have put them all on spreadsheets to be able to determine if or when to lay off at any point. Sad perhaps but have enjoyed doing it.
    I feel that there are less nailed on good things than normal this year. Have a decent amount on Supasundae at a range of prices which will probably remain as my biggest fancy providing the ground improves as it should. Black OPs run on Saturday was impressive and I'm hoping that better ground will enable him to hold on next time-his record indicates he will benefit. Have backed him already but might do more depending on results at Leopardstown. Given NRNB might also do a double with Black Corton both at reasonable odds.
    Last edited by Tout Seul; 30th January 2018 at 2:22 AM.

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