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Thread: Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

  1. #41
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    Cheers, GH. I was sure it was next week they came out with penalties accruing after this coming Sunday. Obviously mixed up somewhere along the line.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  3. #42
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    4lbs penalty for Whisper.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    This used to be known as The Hennessey, and should be as competitive event as ever this year. There are plenty of Irish entries. I can't pretend I know the winner, but VYTA DU ROC looks a value price, at this early stage. This is what I have read into his career so far. He was a fair fifth in at Scottish National, and good second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown, (this was the last time we saw him, at back end of last season).
    Vyta starting to shorten up in the market now.

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    Iíve got in my head that Whisper wonít be any good in a big field.

    Iím not sure why though.

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    And now Iíve just checked his record. Coral Cup win says Iím talking ****. As you were!

  7. #46
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    I've done another of these.

    I think I'll call it "Grasshopper's Bullsh*it Bulletin".


    Name Weight Sponsor Price Comments
    CONEYGREE 11-12 16/1 10yo
    Rated 165
    Trainer: M Bradstock
    The class act of the field on his day, and actually quite handsomely handicapped on the best of his form. However, has had a lot of time off since his Gold Cup win, and suffered an over-reach first-time-out in the Charlie Hall (quickly PU'd). Connections are relentlessly optimistic, but surely faces a tall order to even make the race, let alone win it.
    WHISPER 11-8 8/1 9yo
    Rated 161
    Trainer: NJ Henderson
    High-class staying novice chaser, and only horse to give Might Bite a semblence of a race over fences last spring. Returned with a workmanlike win over Clan Des Obeaux at Kempton on 13th November, and gets a 4lbs penalty as a result. One for the shortlist, but he doesn't have much time to recover, and faces a stiff task under a big weight.
    SIZING CODELCO 11-5 33/1 8yo
    Rated 158
    Trainer: C Tizzard
    Improved performer when upped in trip to 3m+ in the spring, winning twice (handicaps at Aintree and Punchestown). Has been dropped 2lbs since, following a poor outing on his return to action last month, and if that run can be forgiven, he makes some each-way appeal at current odds.
    AMERICAN 11-4 7/1 7yo
    Rated 157
    Trainer: Harry Fry
    Unbeaten novice-chaser last season, though swerved Cheltenham Festival altogether for easier assignment at Uttoxeter in March. Trip and going should be no issue, though he has yet to face more than eight opponents over fences, and his inexperience might show in the hurly-burly of a big-field handicap. Other preferred at current odds.
    PTIT ZIG 11-3 20/1 8yo
    Rated 156
    Trainer: PF Nicholls
    Hasn't been seen over fences for almost 2 years, plying his trade in top-end Staying hurdles instead. Seems an unlikely runner as a result, and handicap mark still too high for what he has achieved in steeplechases anyway.
    CAROLE'S DESTRIER 11-1 20/1 9yo
    Rated 154
    Trainer: N Mullholand
    Runner-up to Native River 12 months ago (finished strongly), but hasn't been seen since no-show behind the same horse in the Welsh National. Looks to have been laid-out for this, though has to go one better from a 6lbs higher mark. Tough ask.
    SHANTOU FLYER 11-1 25/1 7yo
    Rated 154
    Trainer: R Hobson
    Best form is over much shorter with previous trainer, and was hopelessly tailed-off in the Charlie Hall on his return this season. In the handicappers grip, and needs returned to less exacting trips (also PU'd in the Grand National on first start for new trainer)
    THEATRE GUIDE 11-1 20/1 10yo
    Rated 154
    Trainer: C Tizzard
    Beaten 17L in this last year, from a mark 5lbs lower. Handicapper has been particularly unkind, as he has only won once since the 2017 Hennessy, and that was by a nose. Very difficult to catch on the right day, and easily overlooked.
    LABEL DES OBEAUX 11-0 20/1 6yo
    Rated 153
    Trainer: A King
    Was only beaten 8L by Might Bite at Sandown on 11th November, though had benefit of a previous run, and was grossly-flattered by his proximity to the winner. Wins in his turn, but tends to be in lower-class races with small fields where he can dominate, and unlikely to get away with that here. Handicapper has done him no favours.
    VIEUX LION ROUGE 10-13 25/1 8yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: DE Pipe
    Has a few things in his favour, as trip and ground will very-much suit, though can throw-in the odd no-show, much as he did in the Charlie Hall (eased early in straight when chance gone). A mark of 152 possibly isn't that punitive (on a line through Blaklion) though it would be going too far to say he’s well in. Despite having been around for long time, he is still only an 8yo with 11 chase starts, and the yard can ready a big handicap winner when they put their mind to it. Ignore the Charlie Hall run, and 25/1 starts to look a fair each-way price.
    PERFECT CANDIDATE 10-13 50/1 10yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: F O'Brien
    Seems to land his wins in races which never really work out, which might be down to shrewd placement by his trainer, but is harshly handicapped as a result. He won in first-time cheekpieces at Exeter, though they failed to work next time, and have been left off since. Declaring him in cheekpieces might see a renaissance, but even then, he's hard to fancy, and others should progress past him.
    LORD SCOUNDREL 10-13 50/1 8yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: G Elliott (IRE)
    Galways Plate winner in summer 2016, but has looked punitvely handicapped ever since, and has been a no-show in his last half-dozen outings. Easily overlooked.
    TIGER ROLL 10-13 25/1 7yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: G Elliott (IRE)
    Has bags of stamina (won 4-miler at the Festival), though jumped poorly behind Our Duke in Irish National therafter (PU'd). Comeback run behind Genie In A Bottle showed plenty of promise however, and should put him spot-on for this. May find a few getting away from him early in the straight, but is sure to come home strongly. Good each-way claims.
    O O SEVEN 10-13 16/1 7yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: NJ Henderson
    Only outing over further than 3m was when trounced by Might Bite in the RSA Chase, and is by no means certain to see out this trip. Others preferred
    A GENIE IN A BOTTLE 10-13 14/1 7yo
    Rated 152
    Trainer: N Meade (IRE)
    Put up smart performance in beating Tiger Roll in Wexford, though that was over 23f, he received 6lb, and had the benefit of a previous run. Showed smart form behind Disko at Punchestown Festival, and this trip probably within his compass too. Shortlist material.
    ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 10-12 14/1 7yo
    Rated 151
    Trainer: WP Mullins (IRE)
    Took time to get the hang of things over fences, but form of win against Road To Respect at Navan looks rosy with hindsight, and he can perhaps be forgiven his poor finishing position in the RSA Chase, as he fought Might Bite for the lead, for a circuit and a half. Has since moved to Willie Mullins, though market has obviously taken note. Holds Troytown entry, and with yard having favourite in Total Recall, is possibly an unlikely tunner. Yard has terrible record in UK handicap chases.
    YALA ENKI 10-12 20/1 7yo
    Rated 151
    Trainer: V Williams
    Has a fair strike-rate, but does his winning at a lower-level (beaten all Class 1 race starts), and appears in the grip of the handicapper. Trip no problem, and goes on most ground, but little encouragement to be gained from poor FTO effort in Badger Ales Chase. Others preferred.
    VICENTE 10-11 25/1 8yo
    Rated 150
    Trainer: PF Nicholls
    Scottish National winner who requires a marathon trip, and was in the process of tailing-off in this last season, before falling. Hard to see him getting competitive.
    REGAL ENCORE 10-11 50/1 9yo
    Rated 150
    Trainer: A Honeyball
    Pulled-up in this last year, and only win in iterim came in a 3m Listed handicap off a mark of 144, and races from a mark 6lbs higher this time around. Tripless and easily overlooked.
    ROI DES FRANCS 10-11 50/1 8yo
    Rated 150
    Trainer: G Elliott (IRE)
    Seems to have been around forever, but still only an 8yo. Recent performances on bottomless ground have not been encouraging, though sole win in March was over 3m2f on G/Y ground and in first-time Blinkers. The headgear has been missing in two subsequent, poor runs, but he might be worth a second-look at a big price, if they declare him with Blinkers here.
    MALA BEACH 10-11 16/1 9yo
    Rated 150
    Trainer: G Elliott (IRE)
    Lightly-raced, and somewhat fragile, he has failed to get his head in front in seven runs since 2014. His second to Genie In A Bottle in October (weighted to finish closer) reads well enough, but not guaranteed to stay, and hard to win with.
    ROYAL VACATION 10-10 16/1 7yo
    Rated 149
    Trainer: C Tizzard
    Handicapper has only dropped him 3lbs since very fortunate win in Kauto Star Novice at Kempton last Christmas, and has stamina questions to answer having done almost all his winning at 2m5f or shorter. Others preferred.
    VIRGILIO 10-10 40/1 8yo
    Rated 149
    Trainer: D Skelton
    Has done most of his winning at around 21f, though did win over 3m1f at Aintree's May meeting, having finished 20L behind Might Bite over the same C&D at the National meeting. Balance of form leaves him with a bit to find, though price compensates to a degree, and handicapper could conceivably have been harsher. Place possibilities.
    CHILDREN'S LIST 10-9 33/1 7yo
    Rated 148
    Trainer: WP Mullins (IRE)
    Lightly-raced, sole win in three novice chases came last Christmas at Punchestown when upped to 3m1f for the first time, though form of race has not been wholly-upheld since. Respectable comeback in October over 2m5f, and would be one of the least exposed in the race, if declared here. Also features amongst Troytown Chase entries, and is perhaps an unlikely runner as a result. Trainer's record in UK handicaps a concern.
    PLEASANT COMPANY 10-9 25/1 7yo
    Rated 148
    Trainer: WP Mullins (IRE)
    All three chase wins have come over 3m1f; probably the best of them coming in the Bobbyjo Chase on Heavy, where he outstayed Thunder And Roses. Can be perhaps forgiven other runs at around 4m (NH Chase and National), and would be of some interest if the ground was to be softer than expected. Also entered in Troytown Chase. Trainer's record in UK handicaps a concern.
    TOTAL RECALL 10-8 5/1 8yo
    Rated 147
    Trainer: WP Mullins (IRE)
    Moved to Willie Mullins from Sandra Hughes, and easy winner of Munster National, when upped in trip to 3m+ over fences for first time in October. That was off a mark of 129 and is now a whopping 18lbs higher, but likely remains progressive and unexposed at this trip. Price is short enough given trainer's record in this type of race, but otherwise commands plenty respect.
    SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 10-8 8/1 7yo
    Rated 147
    Trainer: T George
    Has tremendous record at Cheltenham and unlucky to be collared close home by Un Temps Pour Tout in the Ultima Handicap at the Festival. Returned with a highly-satisfactory run behind Cogry (received 13lbs) at the Showcase meeting, which should out him spot on for this. Goes on all types of ground, and handicapper may have given him a chance. Strong claims.
    DOUBLE ROSS 10-8 33/1 11yo
    Rated 147
    Trainer: N Twiston-Davies
    Poor strike-rate, yet to win over a trip this far in 27 chase starts, can make mistakes, and rising 12yo. Easily bypassed
    PRESENT MAN 10-7 20/1 7yo
    Rated 146
    Trainer: PF Nicholls
    Has returned bang in-form from his summer break, winning twice including Badger Ales Trophy; though had hard race at Wincanton, now 4lbs higher and handicapper perhaps starting to get a hold on him. Others preferred.
    MISSED APPROACH 10-6 20/1 7yo
    Rated 145
    Trainer: W Greatrex
    Best effort by some way when following Tiger Roll home in the NH Chase, though also won a novice chase over 2m7f on Heavy last season, so possibly more than just a dour stayer. Pulled-up in West Yorkshire Hurdle on seasonal return at Wetherby, and balance of form leaves him with plenty to find.
    BIG BAD JOHN 10-5 33/1 8yo
    Rated 144
    Trainer: R Curtis
    Last five races included a Slipped-Up, a Pulled-Up, an Unseated-Rider and a Bolted-at-Start;Withdrawn. Aside from that, he was a ready winner of a sub-standard Reynoldstown, in a race that is failing to work out. Badly handicapped as a result, and easy to bypass.
    CHAMPERS ON ICE 10-4 25/1 6yo
    Rated 143
    Trainer: DE Pipe
    Impressive in chase debut, but quickly lost his way, becoming increasingly disappointing as he was upped in grade, including a PU (not jump well) in the NH Chase. Has a certain mercurial quality, and first-time out might be the right time to catch him, but equally, he might be hugely flattered by his good runs, and his confidence might be shot. Chancey, but could out-run his odds.
    GENERAL PRINCIPLE 10-2 40/1 8yo
    Rated 141
    Trainer: G Elliott (IRE)
    Winner of a G3 novice chase at Limerick in March when upped to 3m+ for first time, and possibly ran a little better than finishing-position suggests, behind Our Duke in the Irish National, on ground which might not have suited him entirely. Still relatively unexposed after only 9 chase starts, and very-much so at this trip. One of a clutch of the owners entrants here, and possibly the best value of them all, at current odds.
    VYTA DU ROC 10-1 40/1 8yo
    Rated 140
    Trainer: NJ Henderson
    Only beaten 9L by Native River last year, on ground which would have been plenty quick-enough. Hold-up tactics then may have been due to stamina doubts (not entirely proven beforehand), but all he did was stay-on in the straight, to finish a never-nearer 5th. Form thereafter was generally patchy, but returned with a reasonable effort over hurdles, and this is his target. Place prospects.
    VIC DE TOUZAINE 10-0 33/1 8yo
    Rated 139
    Trainer: Venetia Williams
    Stamina not proven at this trip, and pulled-up behind Present Man in Badger Ales on re-appearance. Holds engagement at Cheltenham's November meeting, but would have to put up very-good performance there, to warrant a second-look in this.
    BRAQUER D'OR 10-0 16/1 6yo
    Rated 139
    Trainer: PF Nicholls
    Stamina not proven, and looked to be in the handicappers grip, when placed behind Go Conquer in decent Ascot handicap. Trainers entries are always to be respected, but looks to face a stiff task.
    FLINTHAM 10-0 40/1 8yo
    Rated 139
    Trainer: M Bradstock
    Only has four chase outings under his belt, and yet to get his head in front, and beaten a long way in three of those starts. Could conceivably improve, but already looks harshly-handicapped after being beaten a nose by Big Bad John in a poor edition of the Reynoldstown.
    COGRY 10-0 25/1 8yo
    Rated 139
    Trainer: N Twiston-Davies
    Seems to have overcome his earlier jumping issues, and was ready winner of a handicap chase at the Showcase meeting, beating Singlefarmpayment (conceded 13lbs) by 4L. Has gone up 6lbs for that win to highest-ever mark, and bound to find it much tougher now.
    POTTER'S LEGEND 9-13 33/1 7yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: Lucy Wadham
    Boasts some fair form in decent races, but without ever troubling the judge, and seems likely to follow that pattern here.
    POLIDAM 9-13 33/1 8yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: WP Mullins (IRE)
    Fair chaser below the top-level at Auteuil, before being moved to Willie Mullins last winter, but unsighted on his first run for the yard at Punchestown (FAV beaten 30L). Handicap mark looks a little on the high-side for what he achieved in France, and whilst Mullins can improve them, it seems less likely with Polidam, given his 15 chase starts.
    SOUTHFIELD ROYALE 9-13 25/1 7yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: N Mullholland

    Still suffering the effects of an easy win in the 2015 December Novice Chase (Doncaster) and running Tea For Two to 4L in the Kauto Star thereafter. Winless since, pulled-up on his return in the Badger Ales, and has it all to do.
    PILGRIM'S BAY 9-12 33/1 7yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: Lucy Wadham
    Satisfactory return in Badger Ales (will come on for the run), but has been kept almost exclusively to right-handed tracks, and going efforts left-handed disappointing. Hard to see him getting competitive here.
    VALUE AT RISK 9-6 33/1 7yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: Lucy Wadham
    Beaten a long way at Aintree, on first try at 3m1f, and flattered behind Unowhatimeanharry (and ahead of Top Notch) in muddling Aintree hurdle on re-appearance. Far from certain to see this trip out.
    ANTONY 9-5 40/1 7yo
    Rated 138
    Trainer: Lucy Wadham
    Reasonable return at Ascot behind Go Conquer, but the run suggests that's probably as good as he is, and he's far from a certain stayer


    Conclusion
    The market broadly has it right, at least insofar as the shorties are concerned, and it would be no surprise at all to see both Total Recall and Singlefarmpayment run big races. However, I can't bring myself to back either at single-figure odds. Mullins record in UK handicap-chases needs to be taken into account, and I don't have SFP that far ahead of the handicapper either.

    Both look solid, but they're not for me as betting propositions. I'll therefore swim in more cowardly waters, and look to see if I can land a haymaker with an outer.

    The three I'm probably most interested are all Irish-trained, and all Gigginstown-owned; namely Tiger Roll (33/1 BP), A Genie In A Bottle (25/1) and General Principle (40/1). Unfortunately, all three are entered-up all over the parish (they all have Troytown entries, plus others), and a run doesn't seem guaranteed for any of them.

    That being the case, I've taken 65 (TR) and up to 130 (GP) on Betfair, and will will leave it at that for the moment. I'll bide my time with AGIAB, and see if there is word on his plans, nearer the time.

    That leaves me with my two UK horses; which are Champers On Ice and Vyta Du Roc.

    I wouldn't be as keen on VDRs chances as some on here - mainly because he is inconsistent - but he is fairly-handicapped, and a positive ride might bring out the best in him. Champers On Ice had an abject novice campaign, but I'm pinning my hopes on first-time-out being the right time to catch him. The pair are both best-price of 33/1 at present, and will do for each-way marker bets.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 15th November 2017 at 8:36 AM.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    archie (15th November 2017), Danny (27th November 2017), Desert Orchid (15th November 2017), Diamond Geezer (15th November 2017), Marble (14th November 2017), Maruco (15th November 2017), Perpetual (15th November 2017), Tout Seul (15th November 2017)

  9. #47
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    I enjoyed this, cheers!
    Last edited by Marble; 14th November 2017 at 11:20 PM.

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    I've backed Vyta once, should Tully East or Mohaayed help me out this weekend, then I'm going in again on Vyta each way.
    Last edited by Marble; 14th November 2017 at 11:24 PM.

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    I've got Lord Scoundrel down for nash. No idea why, I often write horses down for races after a few shandys at a weekend, but I honestly know nothing about it. If it runs at 50s I'll stick a £5 on for interest and hope I was onto something at the time.

    Great write up. VDR the way you put it looks like theft of the bookmakers at 40s. Best of luck to you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    The three I'm probably most interested are all Irish-trained, and all Gigginstown-owned; namely Tiger Roll (33/1 BP), A Genie In A Bottle (25/1) and General Principle (40/1). Unfortunately, all three are entered-up all over the parish (they all have Troytown entries, plus others), and a run doesn't seem guaranteed for any of them.
    .
    Actually Grassy, Tiger Roll isn't in the Troytown but is likely to run on Thursday in the Clonmel Oils. He can stand his racing so if he runs well there (over an inadequate 2m 4f) he might show up. I know Meade is keen on running A Genie in Abottle at Newbury and he does seem a solid option - the handicapper hasn't done him any favours with a rating of 152 (150 in Ireland) but he has scope and this is his distance.He would be top weight in the Troytown and this has to be the much more likely option.



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    Grasshopper (15th November 2017)

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    That's a hell of a lot of work, Grass, thanks.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  17. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    I've got Lord Scoundrel down for nash. No idea why,
    It seems to be Culloty's MO to make them look ultra-iffy ahead of landing quiet gambles and LS does have bits and bobs of very smart form.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It seems to be Culloty's MO to make them look ultra-iffy ahead of landing quiet gambles and LS does have bits and bobs of very smart form.

    Cullotty doesnt land quiet gambles-at a guess most of his winners are easy to back-not sure if this is because he hasn't a clue or his owners aren't obsessed with landing a gamble.

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    13 winners from 236 runs in the past 5 years suggests it's Culloty's MO to simply not win many races.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 15th November 2017 at 11:34 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    13 winners from 236 runs in the past 5 years suggests it's Culloty's MO to simply not win many races.


    Level stakes profit if you managed to get 300/1 on Lord Windermere in running in the Gold Cup.

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    General Principle goes in a handicap hurdle at Clonmel today.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    Roll on this race and Vyta I hope.

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    Latest scratchings:

    Shantou Flyer
    General Principle
    Tiger Roll
    Roi Des Francs
    Mala Beach
    Flintham
    Lord Scoundrel

    So, two of my preferred outers don't go. A Genie In A Bottle now Gigginstown's sole representative left.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Latest scratchings:

    Shantou Flyer
    General Principle
    Tiger Roll
    Roi Des Francs
    Mala Beach
    Flintham
    Lord Scoundrel

    So, two of my preferred outers don't go. A Genie In A Bottle now Gigginstown's sole representative left.
    And looks to have decent claims IMO.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Who actually owns Bet Bright? Is it Rich Ricci? Does Nicky Henderson write stuff for them?
    I'm just curious as they seem to be happy to continually lay 25/1 about Vyta Du Roc, which surely won't last.
    I reckon its a 7/4 chance Vyta Du Roc, starts at single figure odds on the day, personally
    Last edited by Marble; 27th November 2017 at 2:03 PM.

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