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Thread: Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

  1. #21
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    Unless Gigginstown treat this like a run of the mill handicap chase in Ireland, declaring all fifteen of their entries!
    Last edited by Marble; 7th November 2017 at 8:35 PM.

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I also expect Smad Place (159) to be up about 6lbs when his new OR is published during the week
    Smad Place up 6lbs. I wish punting was as easy as this handicapping malarkey...
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  5. #23
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    Vyta Du Roc will be very unlucky not to make the cut. He's off 140 while 138 and 139 have made the cut in recent years.

    I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a cut, in fact. I'm not sure there will be a maximum field.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th November 2017 at 8:55 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Number 47 on the list Martin. I'm not sure typically where the cut off has been. Anyone have the stats.

    I take your point with the Gigi entries, but he's a long way down and needs a lot of defections. I'm not saying he won't get in, just that from my own perspective it leaves me preferring to wait.

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    Yes Mo but it looks very compressed this time round don't you think?

    Have you got your long lists for the last couple of years reasonably easy to hang for comparison where the cut was at this stage? I reckon VdR might be pretty close to it.

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    Beware the Bear
    Last edited by wilsonl; 7th November 2017 at 9:07 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Beware the Bear
    This is what ladies say to other ladies, when they spot Marble having a pint in their local city centre on a Saturday night.
    Last edited by Marble; 7th November 2017 at 10:10 PM.

  10. #28
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    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  11. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    This is what ladies say to other ladies, when they spot Marble having a pint in their local city centre on a Saturday night.
    In your dreams, marble, in your dreams
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Yes Mo but it looks very compressed this time round don't you think?

    Have you got your long lists for the last couple of years reasonably easy to hang for comparison where the cut was at this stage? I reckon VdR might be pretty close to it.
    2016 - my earliest document is the five day stage: 28 left, going down to 134 Another Hero 9-8 (Smad Place 166, 11-12); 20 declared, Smad Place top weight 11-12, bottom weight Upswing (137) 10-0 (3oh)
    2015 - entry stage only 35 entered (? - could I have amended it at a later date for the 5-day stage?); 17 ran, ratings range 163-139
    2014 - 19 declared, ratings range 155-138
    2013 - 21 declared (did they have reserves then?); ratings range 158-132

    Hope this helps.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  13. #31
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    I can't wait to learn more about handicapping. I like the horse, but how on earth can Label Des Obeaux be handicapped higher than some of the names below him?

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Smad Place up 6lbs. I wish punting was as easy as this handicapping malarkey...
    Might not be enough to stop him. He's won off a much higher mark in the past
    Formely Fist of Fury

  15. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    2016 - my earliest document is the five day stage: 28 left, going down to 134 Another Hero 9-8 (Smad Place 166, 11-12); 20 declared, Smad Place top weight 11-12, bottom weight Upswing (137) 10-0 (3oh)
    2015 - entry stage only 35 entered (? - could I have amended it at a later date for the 5-day stage?); 17 ran, ratings range 163-139
    2014 - 19 declared, ratings range 155-138
    2013 - 21 declared (did they have reserves then?); ratings range 158-132

    Hope this helps.
    Thanks Maurice. I'll hold fire on VdR until the 5 day stage I think. It feels to me like the number of decs at this stage is much more than usual so we could have a higher OR as bottom weight. I do take Martin's point with regards multiple Gigi entries though.

  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    This used to be known as The Hennessey, and should be as competitive event as ever this year. There are plenty of Irish entries. I can't pretend I know the winner, but VYTA DU ROC looks a value price, at this early stage. This is what I have read into his career so far. He was a fair fifth in at Scottish National, and good second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown, (this was the last time we saw him, at back end of last season).

    He was sixth in the very race last season on a rating of 143, when quite well fancied in the betting at 8/1. He certainly needs to improve a notch or two to get anywhere near to winning a showcase handicap in 2017/2018, but at least he's been thereabouts at the business end in these type of events. If Nicky Henderson could get more improvement, Vyta Du Roc could get his head in front in one these, still only eights year of age. He's on a mark of 140 now, which looks workable, based on his overall profile.

    He beat Minella Rocco, now on 166, off level weights eighteen months ago. He must possess a bit of class. Whilst he's not nailed on at this early stage, Vyta Due Roc looks excellent value at prices of 33/1. Perhaps some proper soft ground may do the trick, (he seems better with cut in the ground). I just hope he makes it on the day, and the heavens open!
    Vyta Du Roc runs in the handicap hurdle tomorrow at Aintree (1:40). See how he does.
    Last edited by Marble; 10th November 2017 at 8:26 PM.

  17. #35
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    Well not too disheartened. He travelled well, looked like a winner turning for home, but just emptied like he needed the run quite badly. Hopefully he will come on for the run.
    Last edited by Marble; 11th November 2017 at 2:52 PM.

  18. #36
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    Presumably the purpose of the exercise. Fitness while protecting his chase mark just in case.

  19. #37
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    Yeah, looking at the other thread where DG posted Henderson's opinions on his runners, he said Vyta would come on a lot for the run. He also said the plan is this race. He also said he's not too badly handicapped. So overall I'll settle for it.

  20. #38
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    Does Whisper cop a penalty for this, after winning at Kempton yesterday?
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

  21. #39
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    I don't think so. I don't think the weights are out yet so he'll be re-handicapped if deemed necessary. I think.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  22. #40
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    Weights are out, DO:

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...45/at-a-glance

    I can't recall any horses in the past where they've run with a penalty. Whisper probably the second horse today I think is fairly handicapped off 157!
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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