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Thread: Champions Day

  1. #1
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Champions Day

    Few bets already for the weekend, with the odd non-runner.

    Long Distance:
    OOSG is the sort of horse you have to take on at a short price on a track he has lost at. I was impressed with Stradovarius in the Leger and he's worth a go at 6/1 on a course he likes, I feel the jockey went a bit too soon on him at Doncaster but he did really well to finish so close to a couple of high class horses.

    Sprint:
    Not a huge edge on this with Harry Angel looking incredibly solid but Librisa Breeze has immense course form and is worth a small go each way at 14s. I also have him in an ew double with Stradovarius.

    F&M:
    I like Journey for this. She ran well in the Vermeille but couldn't contain Bateel on ground the latter relishes. I've had a small win bet in the hope the weather stays dryish. It's not a deep race.

    QEII:
    I've done my money on this race as Taareef doesn't run and don't see an angle now.

    Champion Stakes:
    Cracksman surely the worst priced horse to run at Ascot since Clever Cookie was 4s for a King George. Even if he somehow wins he will trade double what he currently is IR. I'm on Poet's Word and Barney Roy ante-post at 12s and 6s and whilst I have confidence in both Ulysses turning up has put a spanner in the works. That said BR rates better than the bare form of the Juddmonte where the tactics didn't work and he is fresher than the Stoute horse who has been on the go all season.

    Hedging Trixie
    OOSG,Bateel,Ulysses
    Last edited by Euronymous; 16th October 2017 at 4:16 PM.

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    Senior Member sunybay's Avatar
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    Journey
    Harry angel
    Al Wukair
    Cliffs of moher

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Yeah, Al Wukair is my other non runner - punted him for the Champion.

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    If it doesn't rain much isn't Highland Reel the forgotten horse in the Champion Stakes and not having run since the KG he will be fresher than most .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    If it doesn't rain much isn't Highland Reel the forgotten horse in the Champion Stakes and not having run since the KG he will be fresher than most .

    Surely Breeders Cup and Japan/Hong Kong is the name of the game for this one.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He's not good enough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    He's not good enough.

    No other horse in the race will come close to him in terms of overall career acheivements but Ascot in mid October might not suit him.

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    £14.6 million sterling in prize money -in many ways the horse of a lifetime.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Prize money is like track records. They don't mean anything with regard to merit.

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    True but when you look at the races where the prize money was earned it puts a different perspective on it.

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    I think a lot will depend on the ground. The last reported going had firm in the title and if that was the case come Saturday then I think Big Orange takes the stayers down I know Strad beat him at Goodwood but he took a long time to get past him down a long straight its not so easy at Ascot and his weight allowance has been reduced Big O, 5lb better off although in fairness a reverse fc won't be out of the question with the pair.

    Again good or faster ground permitting I'd certainly be willing to take the Tin man to serve it up to Harry's Angel back at Ascot.

    I have half an eye on Brigliadoro in the Balmoral who's a huge price and although he looks handicapped to the hilt with his 6lb penalty I have reason to believe he'll outrun those huge odds but again wouldn't be punting him if sft is anywhere in the going description.

    Re-Highland Reel I can see why Euro says he's not good enough however in this mental world in which we live you can probably get the same price Highland reel to place as you can Cracksman to win. In real terms unless your using excuses like "he might be feeling the effects of the Arc" then on all known form Ulysses is the best 10f horse and should take this down but gut feeling tells me I'll find some useless yak for an e/w play and then kick myself afterwards for not backing the obvious as is the usual M.O.
    Last edited by Danny; 18th October 2017 at 1:57 PM.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    In an effort to hedge against too much rain I some protection in place with a couple of hedging multiples:

    OOSG,Bateel,Ulysses trix

    OOSG,Harry Angel,Al Wukair,Brametot Yankee

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    He's not good enough.
    He is more than good enough on his Breeders Cup and Prince of Wales's stakes ( with Ulysses behind him ) wins - but the softening of the ground has done for him .

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    Ulysses is a non-runner .

    field of 10

    Cracksman
    Cliffs of M
    Barney roy
    Highland Reel
    Brametot
    Poet's Word
    Desert Encounter
    Recolotos
    Success Days
    Maverick Wave
    Last edited by Ardross; 19th October 2017 at 10:38 AM.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    If the rain isn't too severe I have it between Poet's Word and Barney Roy. If it's proper soft it does bring Cracksman into it but the Stoute horse won on deep ground at Goodwood so although he has said he'd prefer it good the horse does act on it. Brametot is a danger.

    Like I said in my initial post I didn't see an angle in the QEII but Churchill's presence and the probability of soft ground does bring suny's fancy Al Wukair into it at around 13/2.

    I think the bet of the day is Librisa Breeze. Soft ground over 6 at Ascot with a guaranteed fast pace is ultra optimal from him and he surely hits the frame.

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    It is already soft and the forecasters seem to think it will chuck it down late this evening and there will be showers tomorrow - strong risk of heavy in the ground description on the round course I reckon but that is what you get when you have Champions Day at Ascot in late October .

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    It isn't though. The inner course was firm earlier in the week. Why are these pricks watering throughout the summer when the climate has become wetter recently. There is no excuse to run this on nearly heavy ground when they have another track with better ground conditions.

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    Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.
    Order Of St George again ran a blinder in the Arc, but is unlikely be thwarted by the lack of a test this proved last year.
    Absolute banker of the meeting, imo.
    Carravagio's iffy feet reportedly caused him 'wheelspin' problems on his penultimate 2 outings, but he shouldn't need rubber cushions on this ground, and I expect him to outstay Harrry Angel (who'll find this a stiffer test than Haydock) much as he did in the Commonwealth.
    C's Latest run was no more than a warm-up over an inadequate trip, and 9/2 is grand.
    Last edited by reet hard; 20th October 2017 at 7:24 PM.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    You're doing a rain dance for a 6/4 shot? **** me.

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    O.k Euro you've roped me in after watching the replays and back over 6f at Ascot on soft ground I'd agree Librisa is to my mind the best bet of the card. Brametot in the Champion stakes for me I think.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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