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Thread: Champions Day

  1. #61
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    Pity about the going and the storm but running Champions Day a week later was only beneficial to Order of St George.
    Cracksman put up a formidable performance and thankfully his Epsom run was not the end of him as is often feared with immature horses.
    Hydrangea 's performance nearly as impressive as it was her first over 12f and she fairly put the race to bed.

    Anyone watching RUK this morning and James Willoughby's top sires table ?

    What to make of the fact he has Frankel sitting at number 4 or 5 in sires' list is an eye opener to say the least; given the class of mare he covered there is surely no huge evidence the horse has enhanced the breed as of yet.
    Early days i know but thoughts please .

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    Frankel's stock in the main appear to be stayers, so I don't think we'll see the best of many of them until they have raced as 4 and 5yos. It's too early imo to go ott on the praise or the criticism.


    A punters enjoyment of a big day like yesterday is naturally dependent upon one's results and so I dug it. However, leaving that aside it's a much better fixture on decent ground. Too many class horses yesterday were below form because of the ground largely. Going forward you would hope the course takes a chill pill on watering the track post King George meeting.

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    Frankel has plenty of monkeys that race on and off the bridle in a similar fashion to Noble Mission who was a brother to Frankel.

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    The racing surface at Ascot was very testing yesterday but the strange thing was the lawn in front of the stands was solid under foot.

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    It's what I've said, the ground has frig all to do with the weather - it's all about the over watering.

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    Think you are being a little unfair on the Ascot executive, Euro.
    The ground (Swinley Bottom apart) was no worse than soft yesterday (RP analysis), which is pretty much acceptable considering the time of year, and the g/s reading on the straight course was identical to that which opened the previous meeting on 9th October. Don't know why they didn't use the inner course, but I'd suspect it has more to do with turf husbandry (it inevitably gets more wear and tear) than it has with thwarting punters or pandering to rich owners.
    In my experience, Ascot has served the punter well, both in the total relaying of the straight course, and up-to-date reporting of going changes with g/s readings right across the course. Check the Tuftrax archive if you wish, but I doubt you'll find any other course that regularly produces more even ground to race on.
    Chrts Stickels at al ahould be commended rather than pilloried, imvho.

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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Pity about the going and the storm but running Champions Day a week later was only beneficial to Order of St George.
    Cracksman put up a formidable performance and thankfully his Epsom run was not the end of him as is often feared with immature horses.
    Hydrangea 's performance nearly as impressive as it was her first over 12f and she fairly put the race to bed.

    Anyone watching RUK this morning and James Willoughby's top sires table ?

    What to make of the fact he has Frankel sitting at number 4 or 5 in sires' list is an eye opener to say the least; given the class of mare he covered there is surely no huge evidence the horse has enhanced the breed as of yet.
    Early days i know but thoughts please .
    Frankel has had the best group of mares to cover of any first season sire so he desperately needed cracks man to win. Galileo had five group one winners with his first batch of runners but he is of course the exception to the norm. The hype around Frankel is understandable but as of yet he has had a reasonable start and no more. Buyers usually look at a new stallion over a 3 year period so Frankel will need to get better results next season on the level of mares sent to him will drop considerably. I thought given the horses temperament he would struggle to produce top horses. He may well improve over time but with stallions like deep impact looking like producing the goods it's a big year coming up for Frankel. Buyers can go off stallions very quickly and with Australia and camelots being very well received its anybody guess how will it go for Frankel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Frankel's stock in the main appear to be stayers, so I don't think we'll see the best of many of them until they have raced as 4 and 5yos. It's too early imo to go ott on the praise or the criticism.


    A punters enjoyment of a big day like yesterday is naturally dependent upon one's results and so I dug it. However, leaving that aside it's a much better fixture on decent ground. Too many class horses yesterday were below form because of the ground largely. Going forward you would hope the course takes a chill pill on watering the track post King George meeting.
    Horses like barney Roy and big orange were lost in that ground and all the races ran like they were a furlong longer. It only suited a few horses and made betting a lottery. Who would have thought hydrangea would be pulling away from bateel at the end of a gruelling 12 f. So much guesswork when it came to punting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post

    Anyone watching RUK this morning and James Willoughby's top sires table ?

    What to make of the fact he has Frankel sitting at number 4 or 5 in sires' list is an eye opener to say the least; given the class of mare he covered there is surely no huge evidence the horse has enhanced the breed as of yet.
    Early days i know but thoughts please .
    Didn't see the piece on RUK as to whether or not he gave reasoning for having him so high but this was a piece he wrote on the subject a while back and I thought it made interesting reading. Apologies if people have already seen it or if indeed he'd given his reasoning on the RUK.

    To the maths behind the rankings, Frankel is just a collection of 74 Group race results. It does not know that this scant sample has been achieved by one of the best racehorses in history and that he is being patronised by some of the best mares around, increasing his probability of long-term success.
    But the maths can still identify Frankel is something special because – at this stage of his career – there hasn’t been a stallion like him.
    A sample of 74 runners is a small one, and TRC Global Rankingsis mindful of the risk in these things. It seeks not to make a splash in, hurriedly jumping on one bandwagon or another, but to minimise errors in predicting the results of future Group and Graded races.
    This is extremely important to note: if Frankel was placed any lower than #4, on the basis it is ‘too soon to tell’, reached either mathematically or otherwise, the probability of ranking one of his sons or daughters too low in a future Group race increases.
    While it seems like 74 runners is not a lot, in terms of mitigating risk it is a lot more significant than 54 or 44 runners: we have reached the point where the maths is screaming "this is not a fluke".
    To remind you what we have detailed before, Frankel's record of 19 Group winners from 74 global runners is represented by a strike rate of 25.7 percent. For comparison, Galileo's strike-rate is 17.1 percent and Dubawi's 17.6 percent.
    Now, strike rate is nowhere near the most important consideration for TRC Global Rankings. The first and most important statistic for a stallion is simply the number of runners he has been represented by in Group and Graded races, for we are dealing here with the cream of the crop of all Thoroughbreds worldwide, and to even get a runner into a Group or Graded race is somewhat predictive of future success.

    But let’s talk strike rate just for a second here, for it is a widely understood metric that isn’t that misleading applied in this spot.
    As the sample size of a stallion grows, his strike rate becomes less noisy and approaches a stable number. One of the things TRC Global Rankings is doing is answering the question: “How is a stallion doing in terms of his win rate at this stage of his career? And how much trust do we place in him continuing to do it?”
    Frankel's strike rate is only the 49th best among the 500 we consider the best in the world right now. The best belongs to Twice Over: 1-1 or 100%.
    Of the 48 sires with a higher strike-rate than Frankel:
    A total of 34 have had ten runners or fewer
    A total of nine have had 11-20 runners
    The remaining few have had 23, 29, 29, 35 and 54. (The 54, impressively, is Japanese sire Screen Hero.)
    None has had close to 74.
    To see how difficult it is for a sire to maintain a high strike rate as the sample size increases, consider the following leaders bracketed by runners:
    One sire has had 800+ runners: #3 Deep Impact, SR 10.9%
    One has had 700-799 runners: #1 Galileo, SR 17.1%
    One has had 600-699 runners: #18 Fastnet Rock, SR 9.2%
    One has had 500-599 runners: #2 Dubawi, SR 17.6%
    Five have had 400-400 runners: #8 Tapit (SR 15.7%), #26 King Kamahameha (SR 9.6%), #61 Exceed And Excel (8.9%), #75 High Chaparral (9.7%), #10 Medaglia d'Oro (14.5%)
    Nine have had 300-399 runners: #22 Shamardal (10.6%), #16 Snitzel (10.6%), #40 Redoute'sChoice (10.4%), #19 Street Cry (13.7%), #9 Teofilo (10.1%), #14 War Front (10.6%), #59 Bernardini (10.0%)
    (Note here that strike-rate is tougher to achieve in big fields than small, and tougher to achieve against better runners than weaker groups. We allow for both in the TRC Rankings points that determine the ordering of the classifications.)
    Separated out into groups like this, you can hopefully see a bit better how the rankings work.
    Now, consider the following stallions who have had between 140 to 160 runners:
    #84 Smart Strike (160 runners) SR 8.8%
    #41 Duke Of Marmalade (157 runners) SR 15.3%
    #31 City Zip (156 runners) SR 19.9%
    #35 Acclamation (155 runners) SR 9.0%
    #56 Malibu Moon (154 runners) SR 11.0%
    #142 Lemon Drop Kid (152 runners) SR 14.5%
    #53 Written Tycoon (150 runners) SR 12.7%
    #24 I Am Invincible (143 runners) SR 12.6%
    #305 Exchange Rate (143 runners) 12.6%
    #109 Distorted Humor (140 runners) 10.7%
    This is a good bunch of stallions, right? Their median ranking is 54.5. Now, when Frankel doubles his number of runners, he will have 148 - right in this group.
    At his present strike-rate of 25.7 percent, it is 3,522,311,669 – 1 that Frankel doesn’t have a winner in his next 74 runners, which is more than 700,000 times less likely than Leicester were rated to win the Premier League title in 2016.
    Yet, if this were to happen, Frankel’s strike-rate would be 12.8 percent, which would be still better than eight of the ten stallions above!
    There is no need to go on, but we cannot resist a geeky exercise. What if we took 74 runners at random from the 1,651 that Frankel’s sire Galileo has had since 2011, and counted the number of Group winners in the sample? What percentage of 50,000 repetitions of this exercise would have 19 winners or more, like Frankel?
    The result of the frequency simulation is shown in Table 1 (below). The red columns are those in which Galileo had 19 or more winners in a sample of 74 runners.
    Galileo had 19 winners 650 times - or 1.3 percent of all simulations;
    Galileo had more than 19 winners 634 times or 1.27 percent of all simulations;
    So, Galileo had at least the same number of winners as Frankel only 2.57 percent of the time.
    [img=1215x828]https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/media/uploads/2017/09/14/galileo-chart.png[/img]
    Of course, this could have been worked out algebraically from the binomial theorem. The probability that a stallion with Galileo’s strike-rate of 16.4 percent (since 2011) would have at least 19 winners from 74 runners is 2.694 percent, which is the equivalent of 1,374 of the samples (we got 1,284, so Galileo was a bit ‘unlucky’ in our simulation.)
    Now, the fact that only 2.694 percent of all Galileo’s 74 race samples has the same number of winners as Frankel’s actual totals does NOT suggest that Frankel is 97 percent likely to be better than Galileo. The comparison is unfair on the Coolmore great because we haven’t accounted for either the risk that Frankel’s results are flattering to him or the fact that Galileo has achieved his results in better quality races on average.
    That bloodstock history contains examples of stallions who have got off to a great start. For instance, in the rankings of July 17, 2016, Uncle Mo had scored with 13 (Frankel 19) of his first 74 Graded winners, which entitled him to being ranked #19 (Frankel #4), before later reaching as high as #5 at the peak of his success on April 9, 2017, but he has faded to world #22 in this week’s rankings.
    Frankel is in a different league to Uncle Mo at the same stage: the Juddmonte great has faced stiffer competition (tRPR 87.11 to 85.43) and bigger fields (10.28 to 9.82) yet has a strike-rate nearly one and half times better.
    The numbers are unequivocal about this. The ‘too soon to tell’ brigade are backing the wrong horse. You cannot fluke numbers like Frankel without being worthy of the hype.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  12. #70
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    Thanks for the explanation Danny; much appreciated.

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    Strike rate is a stat which favours a young stallion like Frankel because there are no races yet where his progeny from different crops are taking each other on.

    Dubawi on the other hand had four runners in the Fillies and Mares Race (ages 3, 4 and 5), so the best result he could have achieved if siring the winner of that race was one out of four.

    The concentration of so many Galileos in the hands of AOB disadvantages him too where strike rates are concerned - look at the number of times Galileo is multiply represented in Group races because of how that stable likes to do things.

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    Someone at the BHA evidently has been on something and needs a dope test . Cracksman has been given an OR of 130 - as Highland Reel has an OR of 123 that seems to to be on the basis that he seven lengths behind run to his best form in that mud - madness .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Someone at the BHA evidently has been on something and needs a dope test . Cracksman has been given an OR of 130 - as Highland Reel has an OR of 123 that seems to to be on the basis that he seven lengths behind run to his best form in that mud - madness .

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    Particularly considering the route HR took.

    Cracksman is overrated, not least because of his sectionals.

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    Someone at the BHA evidently has been on something and needs a dope test
    A crack man perhaps?

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    He seems to be using the 2lb to one length scale which for 10f run in a bog seems exaggerated .

  19. #77
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Interested in what rating Suny has for Cracksman.

    Suny?
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Frankel

    i go at the moment between 130-132
    very impressive last saturday

    the field was not very strong and some didnt act in the conditions but it Was very impressive how he finished the last furlong.

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    He was 'impressive' in the last furlong because he quickened off a none too generous pace, and got first run on both 2nd & 3rd {with little of any consequence behind them}. Small wonder that both were actually gaining ground in the closing stages.
    This "fastest final furlong of the day" won't wash either, as every other race (bar Hydrangea's) was run at almost a flat out gallop from the getgo.
    Though it was the only 10f race of the day, the relative time compares none too favourably with the handicap afterwards, either - considering the supposed class gulf.
    Yes, he's very good horse, and he might improve further - but he'll need to, to even live up to his questionable new rating.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    , the relative time compares none too favourably with the handicap afterwards, either - considering the supposed class gulf.
    .
    different pace, different course
    and not a normal hcp, very likely to be full of group horses

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