Staying loyal to Cardsharp despite his penalty tomorrow - ground was against him at Goodwood. The Ebor as usual is a non-event - missing the 3yos.
Staying loyal to Cardsharp despite his penalty tomorrow - ground was against him at Goodwood. The Ebor as usual is a non-event - missing the 3yos.
Each to their own, Euro, but I find those big handicaps totally irresistible!
The 3yos tended to make it a non-event for me. All you had to do was wait and see what Stoute, Cecil, Tree etc had put away for it. Since it became more difficult for 3yos to make the cut the race is far more competitive and challenging.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I love big handicaps, just over shorter distances.
Scarlet Dragon travelled all over a strong Newmarket field last backend, before asserting comfortably in the closing stages. Owner's always regarded him an Ebor horse, and has been placed accordingly since. Looks sure to improve for the step up in trip and his capable pilot ought to be able to place him where she likes from his decent draw before pouncing.
12/1, currently
Colin Phillips (26th August 2017)
I’m already down before this race even starts, with both ante-post bets taken out at the final declaration stage so I’m going to have to try and come from behind.
Scarlet Dragon goes well for Hollie Doyle so I’m not going to let her booking put me off what now looks a very reasonable percentage call. The horse is unproven at the trip but improved when stepped back up to 12f at the end of last season (with this jockey) and again last time. Being by Sir Percy, there has to be a chance he’ll improve a bit at this trip.
Battersea has to be respected as he runs ahead of two stablemates to whom I’d have given better chances. Claimers dominated the finish last season so I wouldn’t see Egan as a negative and the horse was gelded before his penultimate run. This looks a season-long plot.
Elidor looks a solid marker. He could run his lifetime best and find one or two getting the better of him.
Ivan Grozny could have a chance on his hurdling form but it’s already factored into his price that he can translate it.
Magic Circle won tidily enough the other day to earn the penalty that enabled him to make the cut but that same penalty will compromise his chances in this better race.
Maleficent Queen is a must-bet at 50/1 or bigger (and now 6 places). First time cheekpieces might bring about a revival in her form. She was in the form of her life in the spring at this kind of trip but was dropped back through the summer other than when pulling up in the Northumberland Plate (presumably something went amiss) so it’s interesting that she pops up again here in the first-time headgear.
I don’t think I’d want to try and put anyone off anything they fancy but I’m happy to take my chances with Scarlet Dragon, Battersea and Maleficent Queen.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Just watching that clip of Mill Reef winning his Gimcrack...
He must have put twelve lengths or so between himself and the rest in the final two furlongs (maybe less). I wonder what kind of sectional he put up there.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Wild Hacked in Ebor for me.
A strange season.
I did Eddystone Rock its last four starts, but didn't attempt to look at the 4:40. If i had done so, I'd probably have bet him. An annus horribilis of a season for me. Thank goodness i'm only a very small bettor.
I'm not bothering now until the Ceserewitch, where the plan is to back something anti post.
Last edited by Marb; 26th August 2017 at 7:01 PM.
Yes, I thought long and hard about having some sickness insurance on him after backing him at least twice this summer but just didn't think he's have this win in him.
I had a very painful day. The only one that gave me a run for my money was the saver on Here And Now.
I'm still trying to figure out the ride given to Scarlet Dragon. Utterly shocking but presumably riding to instructions.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Watching the race back, it would seem the plan was to drop the horse in and attack down the inside rail (connections had collected 4th in the Melrose with identical tactics).However, it turned out she had to come from further back (in a race run slightly faster) and made up too much ground too quickly, moving to around 4th place below the distance, before fading in the closing stages.
I'd suggest the plan was wrong in the first place, but whether jockey or connectiona were at fault is a matter of conjecture.
Ditto with Eddystone Martin, last 3 for me - enough
Painful thing was I binned it n backed Ticki Makfi. F*****ing 4th photo I been 2nd best this weekend
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Last edited by Tiny Clanger; 27th August 2017 at 9:20 AM.
Ha,
For what its worth, Arch Villain is my Ceserewitch, anti-post horse. He ran an excellent trial yesterday, when finishing fourth at 50/1. He also gave weight and a beating to Sea Of Heaven last season at Ascot, who finished third in Sweet Selections Ceserewitch. Arch Villain has plenty of good form in the book, with a clear preference for going right-handed. I'll be chipping away at the price, from now until early October. I'll need things to go right, the main thing is that he gets there on the day, but assuming he does, I'm confident enough.
Last edited by Marb; 27th August 2017 at 6:37 PM.
He should never have been 50/1 on Saturday; he and your horse that were withdrawn were the dark horses of the race.
No price for him with Ladbrokes and Corals, though.
They've priced him Moe. There's an I.T problem on Oddschecker. He's listed twice in the same market.
He's not been withdrawn yet, despite my write up...surprising!
Quarter the odds, first five places, with Boylesports at 33/1; best place to back the horse at present.
Last edited by Marb; 30th August 2017 at 12:29 AM.
I've only got a Corals account....
You shouldn't take that price with Corals, Moe.
Bet365,Betfred,Tote,Boylesports.....are five places.
If you can't back Arch Villain with these firms, (preferably Boylesports) then your better off waiting nearer the time.
That was a fine first outing for Arch Villian. A six week break until Newmarket will be perfect. He's not been overly raced at 8 years of age. I suppose a question mark could be the weight. He's won with 10 stone before though and has some class about him. You can't track the leaders at York in the Ebor over 1 mile 6 furlongs, stay all the way to the line for fourth place, if your a bad horse. That takes some doing.
Last edited by Marb; 30th August 2017 at 3:48 AM.
I tend to back horses that have been off the track for a long time these days as they must have talent for connections to bother to keep them in training and trainers can now get them race fit without putting a strain on their legs [eg Litigant]. It always annoys me if I hear of a horse like that winning and I've missed it. I only bet with Corals as it limits the amount I can put on and they let me have tiny bets! Although I do miss my trips to the bookies in the nearest town! My other bets these days seem to be following lady trainers [the more obscure the better].