I don't think backing outsiders running in their own grade or near to it is bad value but backing a 2 bit handicapper against Supreme winners and Champion Hurdle winners is fooking nuts.
Kirriemuir may have been 50/1 when he won the Champion Hurdle but he had already proved his worth by finishing 3rd in the race the previous year. The only reason Beech Road went off at 50/1 is everyone was convinced when he beat the Supreme winner in the National Spirit by 20 lengths in his previous race it was a fluke. I am not prepared to wait 15 to 20 years in the hope I might catch the next one.......that is what makes backing these things so foolish you can't possibly win.
You can kid a kidder all you want with your figures mate but in the real world your chances of getting that win part back are 1 in about 25 and I for one don't like those odds
100 ew = 200 staked if your luck is in and he scrapes into 4th you get 100x25/4+100 = 725 OR 200 at 2.625/1 no where near 3/1 on your total stake
Backing a handicapper at those odds and hoping he can get placed against the top hurdlers in England and Ireland is crazy..even if you do knock one off every 25 years
IMVHO At just over 5/2 there are a million better bets with more chance of winning.