View Poll Results: Who will win the 2018 CH

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  • Buveur D'Air

    17 54.84%
  • Faugheen

    10 32.26%
  • Other

    4 12.90%
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Thread: The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

  1. #841
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    For starters, the price I have is 25/1 not 20/1. Secondly, the market is 1/4 odds and not 1/5 odds.

    Even if I write-off the Win portion of the bet, I’m getting a little over 3/1 on my stake overall, to finish in the top four. In a race like this CH, I won’t write-off the Win portion, because all the runners - apart from BDA - are vulnerable to an extent.

    The Without market, as I have tried to tell you before, is not different to any other race market, and playing each-way in it is in no way different from playing each-way in any other market. It is exactly the same, in fact, though this seems something you are unable to grasp.

    If you think playing outers each-way is fundamentally bad value, or strictly for mugs, regardless of the market, then that’s fair enough, but you have put enough of them up over the years to suggest that isn’t the case. Either that, or you are a mug yourself.
    I don't think backing outsiders running in their own grade or near to it is bad value but backing a 2 bit handicapper against Supreme winners and Champion Hurdle winners is fooking nuts.

    Kirriemuir may have been 50/1 when he won the Champion Hurdle but he had already proved his worth by finishing 3rd in the race the previous year. The only reason Beech Road went off at 50/1 is everyone was convinced when he beat the Supreme winner in the National Spirit by 20 lengths in his previous race it was a fluke. I am not prepared to wait 15 to 20 years in the hope I might catch the next one.......that is what makes backing these things so foolish you can't possibly win.




    You can kid a kidder all you want with your figures mate but in the real world your chances of getting that win part back are 1 in about 25 and I for one don't like those odds

    100 ew = 200 staked if your luck is in and he scrapes into 4th you get 100x25/4+100 = 725 OR 200 at 2.625/1 no where near 3/1 on your total stake

    Backing a handicapper at those odds and hoping he can get placed against the top hurdlers in England and Ireland is crazy..even if you do knock one off every 25 years

    IMVHO At just over 5/2 there are a million better bets with more chance of winning.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  2. #842
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    In your opinion Tanlic what is the best bet in the market without BD ? I keep hearing you telling everyone else there selections for the race are useless.

    Personally I think JC has more chance of finishing 4th than Faugheen has of finishing second and he's 2/1 best price to do so or 7/4 with NRNB attached.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  3. #843
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I assume we are talking about eliminating Melon Faugheen and MTOY before choosing.

    Nothing of late has shown a decent bit of form that would justify them being placed

    Wicklow Brave and Identity Theft are Grade 1 winners which is at least something. Both are trained by the best around and if either bounced back to their best,could sneak a place.

    But my opinion is don't bet........I'd rather put 400 quid on Buvi at odds or Faugheen if he were my choice than throw 100 quid down the drain on a wing and a prayer.
    Last edited by Tanlic; 19th February 2018 at 7:11 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #844
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    I assume we are talking about eliminating Melon Faugheen and MTOY before choosing.
    Eliminate nothing - just give your best bet without BDA.

    Nothing of late has shown a decent bit of form that would justify them being placed
    Sort of my point, yet you somehow manage to conclusively rule out JC, despite him having recent form in the same ball-park as others.

    Wicklow Brave and Identity Theft are Grade 1 winners which is at least something. Both are trained by the best around and if either bounced back to their best,could sneak a place.
    Not specific enough - please recommend a bet, as requested.

    But my opinion is don't bet........I'd rather put 400 quid on Buvi at odds or Faugheen if he were my choice than throw 100 quid down the drain on a wing and a prayer.
    All of this is invalid, given I’ve already said I won’t bet the odds-on, and that I will have a bet in the Without market

    Can we please have your recommended bet now.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 19th February 2018 at 7:39 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  6. #845
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    800.00 3,200.00

    Champion Hurdle 2018
    Buveur Dair - Champion Hurdle
    4.00


    Not interested in poxy bets without Buvi.....My recommended bet was placed on 3rd of December at 11:42:10

    Faugheen was 2.62 for the race that day...I know because I also did a mixed accie 2 days later and he had drifted to 2.75

    29.52 4,775.68
    Arkle Chase
    Petit Mouchoir - Arkle Chase
    13.00
    -- -- Open


    Arkle Chase
    Finians Oscar - Arkle Chase
    11.00
    -- -- Open


    Arkle Chase
    Brain Power - Arkle Chase
    9.00
    -- -- Open


    Champion Hurdle 2018
    Faugheen - Champion Hurdle
    2.62
    -- -- Open


    Champion Hurdle 2018
    Buveur Dair - Champion Hurdle
    4.00
    -- -- Open


    Champion Chase 2018
    Altior - Champion Chase
    2.75
    -- -- Open


    Champion Chase 2018
    Douvan - Champion Chase
    3.50
    -- -- Open


    Ryanair Chase 2018
    Un De Sceaux - Ryanair Chase
    7.50
    -- -- Open


    Ryanair Chase 2018
    Min - Ryanair Chase
    8.00
    -- -- Open


    Gold Cup 2018
    Yorkhill - Gold Cup
    7.00
    -- -- Open


    Gold Cup 2018
    Might Bite - Gold Cup
    8.00
    -- -- Open


    Gold Cup 2018
    Sizing John - Gold Cup
    8.00
    Formely Fist of Fury

  7. #846
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    All mouth, and no trousers?

    Say it ain't so, Champ.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  8. #847
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Ok Grassy you're all mouth and no trousers
    Formely Fist of Fury

  9. #848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    I assume we are talking about eliminating Melon Faugheen and MTOY before choosing.

    .
    I wasn't actually. Like Grass said eliminate nothing if you think the best bet in the Without market is a win on Faugheen at 7/4 then that's your opinion. Tbh It doesn't really matter all I was suggesting is that you stop telling everyone else there bets are ridiculous, no hope bets and making them out to be clueless because they have a different approach to yourself.

    Time ago when I was a young kid who was completely clueless and wet behind the ears I used to use a private bookmaker. I met a bloke in there called Bebby. He used to walk around with enough cash to choke a dozen donkeys. He'd show me bets, I always remember him showing me a Grand win on Unsinkable Boxer. Considering I was a kid on a Ł45 a week YTS at the time its no wonder I got a bit starry eyed. I went to his house once and he showed me 90k in shoe boxes more money than I'd ever seen in my life. He was a bootlegger, back when there was a bit of money in it and had loads of vans going over. One day in the bookies he's putting on the big show, running his mouth because he'd had a few winners showing all and sundry his slips. He then walked out. When the bookies was quiet I said to the bookie I bet your glad to see the back of him. The bookie said nah not really I'd love to have 10 of him. I looked puzzled. The bookie as if to guide me away from my own naivety called me behind the counter and pulled out his book and a bunch of slips. 5k on a 2/5 shot that had been beaten amongst a host of other big wagers that had gone down the pan. He quite simply said "they only ever show you the winners kid!".

    Suffice to say I'm not that wet behind the ears anymore but that's a nice wager you hold on Buveur Dair Tanlic.
    Last edited by Danny; 19th February 2018 at 12:03 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  10. #849
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Charli is more likely to go to Sandown if the ground is good if he were to win Nicky would go pot hunting in the Champion for that 50k 3rd prize and nobody does it better no matter what you may think of the horse

    BUT to appease you all I have to go with Wicklow Brave without Buvi who is the only possible horse that could cause a major shock as he is so talented on his best day.....still wouldn't back him though no value in these bets imo

    old comrade herr Gingertipster would tell you it's a value bet but to me value is only value if you win and the odds are stacked against you in the race.....have an interest like 5 quid ew but anymore yer a chancer.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  11. #850
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Thank you, you old coot.

    Wicklow Brave is 12/1 in the Without market, at 1/5 odds, which pays 6/5 for a place.....for a horse that hasn't faced a hurdle for a year. As a further point of reference, MTOY is paying 3/4 for a place in this market at current best-prices. John Constable has finished upsides MTOY (adjusted for weight) and yet is paying over 5/2 for a place. That's basically the equation I applied, when determining JC as the value bet.

    I don't know why you're still obsessing about 'springing a major shock' - it's simply not relevant to this discussion.

    BDA is a Non-Runner in this race, and given how few of them - and you said this yourself - can be said to be in any kind of form, it is relatively wide-open. Indeed, one of the few horses that has been running to his form, is John Constable, yet he is the first one you wrote-off.

    Don't ever compare me with Gingertipster again, you cu*nt!

    Last edited by Grasshopper; 19th February 2018 at 12:24 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  12. #851
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    You rally shouldn't take about Marble's betting like that Danny Still think Call Me LOrds form was CH material do we?

    Stop putting up shyte and I'll stop shooting it down LOL

    Ease up mate it's all fun and why say one thing and think another..........If I had told you Call Me Lord was regarded as one of the best Nicky had ever trained which one idiot did say how much would you have lost?

    Say it as you see it ...........Forest Gump was going to join but he said your all too fickle
    Last edited by Tanlic; 19th February 2018 at 12:45 PM.
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  13. #852
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Considering how much the race has become a bit of a foregone conclusion on paper 43 pages of shyte aint bad.

    Isn't it usually the thread that creates most interest ahead of the Gold Cup?

    Seems to me it is lagging behind and would be dead as a dodo if it weren't for B/without
    Formely Fist of Fury

  14. #853
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    NJH seeking permission to give Buveur D'Air a workout during racing at Kempton this weekend.

  15. #854
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I suppose if Elite have the money to do so it's their prerogative but I wouldn't touch Elgin with a barge pole in the CH.

    Yesterday's race had the potential to throw up a very iffy result and did just that. The only form line that makes sense at the moment is that he beat Flying Tiger 7lbs, one better than the six he had on RPRs and my own figures and one less than on ORs. Call Me Lord maybe went too soon in pursuit of COD and Ch'Tibello appears to have run below form by some way for some reason.
    Looks like Simon Rowlands is in broad agreement:
    A late candidate for Champion Hurdle honours was revealed in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton recently in the form of Elgin, who gave 4 lb and a beating to Ch’Tibello and Call Me Lord. But Flying Tiger – beaten twice in handicaps this term – was hot on their heels, and the form looks some way removed from what will be required. A 149 timefigure and merely respectable sectionals are other reasons to think that Elgin will do well even to place in the big one.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Elgin put up to 161
    Ch'tibello down 2lb to 154
    Call Me lord remains unchanged on 152.
    Flying Tiger appears to have been left on 140 ???????????? Surely they've forgot to update the rating.

    That would make him a stone better off with Call Me Lord for 0.5 lengths and 19lb better off with Elgin for 5L should they meet in a handicap.

    I don't know how you can take the form literally but then completely excuse one horse from it.


    33/1 NRNB for the County. Looks like another chunky bet to line up along side Mohaayed. Having won the Fred winter last year and being left on his mark after that race on Saturday can't see how this doesn't shorten up dramatically if this is the target.
    Last edited by Danny; 20th February 2018 at 4:58 PM.
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  17. #856
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good points raised, Danny.

    It looks like they've taken the 'race within a race' stance since the overall time (according to Timeform) was more in line with FT's rating so they've left him alone because they feel he's run his race. They've then taken the other three as having their own shootout. (Wasn't Elgin giving weight?)

    To be honest, it's something I learned from experience many years ago to do myself a lot of the time. Plus, the handicapper already released a new guideline earlier this season to the effect that lower-rated horses in non-handicaps wouldn't automatically have their rating raised if they appeared to run well in a non-handicap.

    Flying Tiger has been on my radar for something like the County pretty much all season simply because he won the Fred Winter. I think that form on its own is good but has been hidden by those involved in the finish as part of this campaign. I do think, though, that there will be better-handicapped alternatives come the day.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #857
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    Possibly Des but I think just on the basis he's a previous festival winner and loose reading of that may put him down as well handicapped..whether you truly believe it or not. Some will and he will shorten up dramatically I'd have thought so there is no harm taking it to a good stake. I think I read someone said earlier about cashing out there stake on Presenting Percy for 5 times their investment when he clearly isn't going to run. I'm happy to throw a chunk at it and assess how to play it on the day whether I just back a few others or whatever.
    Last edited by Danny; 20th February 2018 at 5:22 PM.
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  19. #858
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    In fact it looks as if my stake was that chunky it alerted them to the rick I wish But already shortening that's the main thing.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  20. #859
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    Does anyone know if the bet365 without Buveur D'air market is NRNB?

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  21. #860
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlelad View Post
    Does anyone know if the bet365 without Buveur D'air market is NRNB?

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    Yes - it is.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 20th February 2018 at 5:40 PM.
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